CA-PPIC: Obama by 11 among LV

[Tender Branson]

50% Obama
39% Romney

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_512MBS.pdf

[MilesC56]

For reference, PPIC had Boxer up 5 and Brown up 8 in mid-October 2010.

[Tender Branson]

The last PPIC poll was also close (Obama+15). Then came a SurveyUSA poll with Obama above 60. I would only trust SurveyUSA and Field in California.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Romney would be in a position to do much better in CA (and he likely will improve due to suburban whites), but the self-deportation stuff doesn't help and will translate to losses in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It still astonishes me that self deportation is seen as a hard line approach to illegal immigration. It actually blows my mind.

[Torie]

CA has an usually high percentage in my voting cohort might be the reason for the rather big GOP trend number. Without a trend, the number might be more like an 16%-17% Obama lead.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Using a LV screen this far out strikes me as problematic.

I see no reason for there to be a "trend" towards Romney in California. Favorable demographic trends will cancel out any movement among upper middle class secular types who Romney has more appeal towards. I have the feeling that Asians will swing towards Obama even if it's a 50-50 election via the factor of incumbency, which should also mitigate the Torie trend.

[Torie]

Using a LV screen this far out strikes me as problematic.

I see no reason for there to be a "trend" towards Romney in California. Favorable demographic trends will cancel out any movement among upper middle class secular types who Romney has more appeal towards. I have the feeling that Asians will swing towards Obama even if it's a 50-50 election via the factor of incumbency, which should also mitigate the Torie trend.

Can't disagree with that. I've posted that myself, almost word for word, with Hispanics thrown in, although assuming Asians would be about a zero trend I guess. I was just assuming that the poll was accurate for my riff.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Aren't the national polls pretty consistently suggesting that Obama's declines among white voters are with low-education, working-class types (especially men)?

[Senator Snowstalker]

Aren't the national polls pretty consistently suggesting that Obama's declines among white voters are with low-education, working-class types (especially men)?

That was the case in 2008, yes. How they'll trend in 2012 depends on a variety of factors:

1. The economy (of course).
2. How well they respond to Romney after the campaign goes into full swing.

In a 50-50 race, Obama will obviously lose this group (no Democrat has won WWC men since Carter or maybe Clinton), but he needs just enough of them to hold Ohio and Pennsylvania. His best hope is that they hate Romney enough that at least a good chunk vote for Obama.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Aren't the national polls pretty consistently suggesting that Obama's declines among white voters are with low-education, working-class types (especially men)?

That was the case in 2008, yes. How they'll trend in 2012 depends on a variety of factors:

1. The economy (of course).
2. How well they respond to Romney after the campaign goes into full swing.

In a 50-50 race, Obama will obviously lose this group (no Democrat has won WWC men since Carter or maybe Clinton), but he needs just enough of them to hold Ohio and Pennsylvania. His best hope is that they hate Romney enough that at least a good chunk vote for Obama.

I'm talking about results from national polls in 2012.  I'm petty sure that Obama's decline among whites has been primarily concentrated among lowscale voters, not the Tories of the world?

Then again, Obama's performance in upscale, secular areas in 2008 was unprecedented, and my guess is that it would be very difficult to duplicate.

[Torie]

Aren't the national polls pretty consistently suggesting that Obama's declines among white voters are with low-education, working-class types (especially men)?

That was the case in 2008, yes. How they'll trend in 2012 depends on a variety of factors:

1. The economy (of course).
2. How well they respond to Romney after the campaign goes into full swing.

In a 50-50 race, Obama will obviously lose this group (no Democrat has won WWC men since Carter or maybe Clinton), but he needs just enough of them to hold Ohio and Pennsylvania. His best hope is that they hate Romney enough that at least a good chunk vote for Obama.

I'm talking about results from national polls in 2012.  I'm petty sure that Obama's decline among whites has been primarily concentrated among lowscale voters, not the Tories of the world?

Then again, Obama's performance in upscale, secular areas in 2008 was unprecedented, and my guess is that it would be very difficult to duplicate.

The Torie cohort (centrist, secular, upper middle class) is not broken out in the polls. It's too small a subset. It will require granular precinct data to measure it.

[cope1989]

California as a state has probably had the weakest recovery from the recession, and it might double dip considering their fiscal problems. That will hurt Obama but it won't change the vote that much. California's partisan makeup is pretty set, so if Romney performs significantly better there this year it will likely be solely because of depressed Democratic turnout. I don't see him swinging many voters there. It's also worth noting that Latinos are expected to achieve a plurality in California next year.

I love how Romney is bashing California's debt as part of his campaign yet he has a huge house there. It must not be that bad.

[shua]

Aren't the national polls pretty consistently suggesting that Obama's declines among white voters are with low-education, working-class types (especially men)?

That was the case in 2008, yes. How they'll trend in 2012 depends on a variety of factors:

1. The economy (of course).
2. How well they respond to Romney after the campaign goes into full swing.

In a 50-50 race, Obama will obviously lose this group (no Democrat has won WWC men since Carter or maybe Clinton), but he needs just enough of them to hold Ohio and Pennsylvania. His best hope is that they hate Romney enough that at least a good chunk vote for Obama.

I'm talking about results from national polls in 2012.  I'm petty sure that Obama's decline among whites has been primarily concentrated among lowscale voters, not the Tories of the world?

Then again, Obama's performance in upscale, secular areas in 2008 was unprecedented, and my guess is that it would be very difficult to duplicate.

Some of those lowscale voters used to be the Tories of the world.

(Well maybe not quite, but middle class anyways.)

[Dan the Roman]

We know from 2010 and 1998 where undecideds in California go. A 49-44 Democratic lead is really a 53-43 lead. And a 50-39 lead from PPIC will probably end up around 59-39

[crypto-fascist superhero]

I'd say this is definitely an outlier.