Which states will Obama perform better in in 2012 compared to 2008?

[greenforest32]

The 2008 map:



I'm thinking Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas are possible. What do you think?

[Napoleon]

I don't think he will improve in any state.

[politicus]

I could see non-Cuban Hispanics being more negative towards Romney than McCain, so Arizona, TX, NM.

[Kalimantan]

Alaska?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Depends on how close the election is. He may improve in a couple random Southern states due to depressed turnout, as well as the Southwest.

[Brittain33]

Possibly Minnesota. It didn't swing as much as the rest of the country, Klobuchar is effectively uncontested, and the GOP is unpopular and in disarray.

[TNF]

My guess will be that Obama will do better in states with larger LGBT populations, for one. The loss of some of the youth/independent vote will be buffeted by a stronger turnout of the Democratic Party base. I think he'll do worse in some areas though, for sure. He's never going to win Indiana this time around.

[Brittain33]

My guess will be that Obama will do better in states with larger LGBT populations, for one.

Among gays or among our allies? He did just fine with the gay vote in 2008 and doesn't have much room for improvement. He may even do slightly worse because some right-leaning independents who were scared off by McCain-Palin are going to believe that Romney is more moderate and less threatening.

[BaldEagle1991]

I'm thinking Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas are possible. What do you think?

I am thinking those too, along with Georgia, and perhaps Ohio and Michigan.

[timothyinMD]

None.  He will do worse in all 50.  He could possibly improve in the Dist of Columbia.

His biggest drop-offs will occur in Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, Indiana, Nebraska, Missouri, Montana and Kansas. I think he'll lose at least 4 in each of those

Dem performance in Arizona the last three cycles has been VERY stable.  44.7 Gore, 44.4 Kerry 44.9 Obama.  Obama's rather unpopular there.  I don't think he'll drop much, but probably a 42.5-43.5

[Torie]

AZ I suspect is the only state that fits the more likely than not or better category. Mittens does not have the favorite son tailwind there, and that is probably worth 5 or 6 points in AZ.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

None.  He will do worse in all 50.  He could possibly improve in the Dist of Columbia.

His biggest drop-offs will occur in Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, Indiana, Nebraska, Missouri, Montana and Kansas. I think he'll lose at least 4 in each of those

Dem performance in Arizona the last three cycles has been VERY stable.  44.7 Gore, 44.4 Kerry 44.9 Obama.  Obama's rather unpopular there.  I don't think he'll drop much, but probably a 42.5-43.5

No candidate has done worse in every state than the last election since Gerald Ford. Even Carter improved in Vermont.

As for your suggestions for states:

Utah/Wyoming: Of course. I'd add Idaho.
North Dakota: Due to the oil boom, probably.
OK/AR/WV: Probably not. Obama's despised here, but Romney is a far worse fit than McCain. These states probably won't change much from 2008 barring a landslide on either side.
Indiana: Obama's win here was sort of a fluke, so yes.
Nebraska/Kansas: Maybe. I don't know all that much about the politics in these states.
Missouri: Probably won't shift much; Missouri hasn't been prone to huge shifts either way, though it has obviously been trending Republican.
Montana: Probably, due to the anti-incumbent nature of the West.

[timothyinMD]

None.  He will do worse in all 50.  He could possibly improve in the Dist of Columbia.

His biggest drop-offs will occur in Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, Indiana, Nebraska, Missouri, Montana and Kansas. I think he'll lose at least 4 in each of those

Dem performance in Arizona the last three cycles has been VERY stable.  44.7 Gore, 44.4 Kerry 44.9 Obama.  Obama's rather unpopular there.  I don't think he'll drop much, but probably a 42.5-43.5

No candidate has done worse in every state than the last election since Gerald Ford. Even Carter improved in Vermont.

As for your suggestions for states:

Utah/Wyoming: Of course. I'd add Idaho.
North Dakota: Due to the oil boom, probably.
OK/AR/WV: Probably not. Obama's despised here, but Romney is a far worse fit than McCain. These states probably won't change much from 2008 barring a landslide on either side.
Indiana: Obama's win here was sort of a fluke, so yes.
Nebraska/Kansas: Maybe. I don't know all that much about the politics in these states.
Missouri: Probably won't shift much; Missouri hasn't been prone to huge shifts either way, though it has obviously been trending Republican.
Montana: Probably, due to the anti-incumbent nature of the West.

Check your facts.  Carter performed worse in EVERY state, ranging from -1.5 in Mississippi to -19.5 in North Dakota.   I'm talking about raw percent for Obama.  I believe it will be worse in every state, though some not by big margins.

OK, TN, AR, WV are trending Republican.  You guys thinking Obama hit some kinda floor there in 2008 because he actually did worse there than Kerry are wrong.  Obama's will reach historic lows for Democrats in those states

[Joe Biden 2020]

The 2008 map:



I'm thinking Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas are possible. What do you think?

That's not an unreasonable prediction.  I'm thinking add Colorado to that, and maybe Nevada.  I am going to add Oklahoma to that, but not by a significant amount, maybe no more than 1-2 points.  I still think Obama, despite being thoroughly detested here, could manage to pick a couple counties in eastern Oklahoma due to voters staying home, simply because we don't really care for Romney, either.  Obama will still have a very difficult time reaching 40% in Oklahoma, but i'm thinking 60-38 or 61-37 is possible.  I'm thinking Utah is the only southwestern state that will swing toward Romney even further.

All that said, I think Romney will still win the election and become our 45th President on January 20, 2013.

[timothyinMD]

Lol, right.  Poll just came out this week showing Obama at 27 PERCENT against Romney in Oklahoma, and he's going to improve there!?

Obama 2012 performance:
29 Oklahoma
33 West Virginia
35 Arkansas
39 Tennessee
38 Kentucky
43 Missouri
43 Indiana
39 Louisiana
My home state, I'll say 59-60

[Joe Biden 2020]

Lol, right.  Poll just came out this week showing Obama at 27 PERCENT against Romney in Oklahoma, and he's going to improve there!?

We're still 5 months out.

[timothyinMD]

Lol, right.  Poll just came out this week showing Obama at 27 PERCENT against Romney in Oklahoma, and he's going to improve there!?

We're still 5 months out.

Right, over the next 5 months Obama is gonna gain 12 in perhaps the most conservative state in the country because of all the hard campaigning he's gonna do there...

[Brittain33]

What were the undecided in that poll?

The undecided in the 2008 election were zero percent.

I don't know it obama will improve in OK or not, but you have to make an apples to apples comparison if talking raw numbers.

[BaldEagle1991]

I think Obama will also perform badly in MA compared to 2008, mainly because Mitt Romney is their favorite son.

[hopper]

Arizona because of the Immigration Law.

[The Mikado]

I don't think Obama does better in TX than in 2008, and he did so well in NM in 2008 that I think that performance is basically his ceiling there.

I think you could make a case for Alaska.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think Obama will also perform badly in MA compared to 2008, mainly because Mitt Romney is their favorite son.

That suprises me, even with Mitt Romney being from MA, mainly because of the liberal bastion there.

[timothyinMD]

I think Obama will also perform badly in MA compared to 2008, mainly because Mitt Romney is their favorite son.

That suprises me, even with Mitt Romney being from MA, mainly because of the liberal bastion there.

Massachusetts was the only non-southern/non ticket (Arizona and Alaska) state where McCain got more votes than Bush did in 2004.  Probably a correction due to particularly high support for Kerry in 2004

[timothyinMD]

Possibly Minnesota. It didn't swing as much as the rest of the country, Klobuchar is effectively uncontested, and the GOP is unpopular and in disarray.

That was the argument given as to why New York Republicans wouldn't do well in the 2010 congressional races.  We picked up 6 and lost 2 others by a hair each

[Devils30]

Arizona- Romney will win but I think by 4-8 rather than 2008's 9 point margin.