Which states will Obama perform better in in 2012 compared to 2008?

[timothyinMD]

Arizona- Romney will win but I think by 4-8 rather than 2008's 9 point margin.

I concede that Arizona is a hard state to predict the margin.  I firmly believe Romney will win, but in 2008 there were two competing forces there that weren't in any other state:  Home state Republican on the ticket versus the nationwide swing to the Democrats.  Obviously in Illinois they were complimentary forces that resulted in a unusually high margin for Obama in Illinois that he wont be seeing again

[old timey villain]

I think we'll see a slight decrease in polarization. Obama improves slightly in deep red states while Romney improves slightly in dark blue states.

[RodPresident]

Arizona, Ohio and South Carolina.

[Minnesota Mike]

Possible a lot of them. I see the national numbers ending up close to the 2008 results so having improvement in more than a few states would seem likely.

Here a a few states are most likely to see an Obama improvement IMO.

Arizona- McCain effect
Georgia- Demographics
Texas- Demographics
Minnesota- Republican party is imploding in MN
Virginia- Leftward trend continues.

[LastVoter]

Possible a lot of them. I see the national numbers ending up close to the 2008 results so having improvement in more than a few states would seem likely.

Here a a few states are most likely to see an Obama improvement IMO.

Arizona- McCain effect
Georgia- Demographics
Texas- Demographics
Minnesota- Republican party is imploding in MN
Virginia- Leftward trend continues.

This

[All Along The Watchtower]

AZ, MN, and maybe VA.

[zorkpolitics]

Az maybe, but I could see Obama getting a lower percentage in all states

[Wisconsin+17]

All of them.

[SPQR]

Minnesota and Alaska (no Palin around this time).

[politicus]

All of them.

LOL

[morgieb]

Minnesota, Alaska, Arizona.

[Brittain33]

Possibly Minnesota. It didn't swing as much as the rest of the country, Klobuchar is effectively uncontested, and the GOP is unpopular and in disarray.

That was the argument given as to why New York Republicans wouldn't do well in the 2010 congressional races.  We picked up 6 and lost 2 others by a hair each

2012 isn't going to be 2010.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Arizona and Alaska for sure. He won't win either of them, but he'll likely pick up a few points just based on less excitement for a local politician.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona -- reversal of the Favorite Son effect. Texas due to demographic change (fast-increasing Hispanic population). Five stats (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia) that Clinton won twice yet President Obama got clobbered in.

[BaldEagle1991]

I think Obama will do much better in Colorado. That will be the surprise.

[Kevin]

Here's a hint-None.

Obama is going to be on the defensive in most of the swing/Republican leaning states he won in 2008(some of which like IN/NC he will lose). And most of the states that McCain won in 2008 will prob vote for Romney by stronger margins then in 08(will be a closer election this time around. Additionally, in solid D states Obama's most likely reached his ceiling(HI, VT, CT).

I do think however that Obama would be able to maintain his margins in solid Democratic states like VT and HI. As well as in some swing states like CO.

[old timey villain]

Here's a hint-None.

Obama is going to be on the defensive in most of the swing/Republican leaning states he won in 2008(some of which like IN/NC he will lose). And most of the states that McCain won in 2008 will prob vote for Romney by stronger margins then in 08(will be a closer election this time around. Additionally, in solid D states Obama's most likely reached his ceiling(HI, VT, CT).

I do think however that Obama would be able to maintain his margins in solid Democratic states like VT and HI. As well as in some swing states like CO.

NC is most certainly still a tossup.

The picture in your signature looks....very 2003.

[BaldEagle1991]

All of them.

Unless Romney picks a bad running mate that gaffes a lot, then you will be right.

[Kevin]

Here's a hint-None.

Obama is going to be on the defensive in most of the swing/Republican leaning states he won in 2008(some of which like IN/NC he will lose). And most of the states that McCain won in 2008 will prob vote for Romney by stronger margins then in 08(will be a closer election this time around. Additionally, in solid D states Obama's most likely reached his ceiling(HI, VT, CT).

I do think however that Obama would be able to maintain his margins in solid Democratic states like VT and HI. As well as in some swing states like CO.

NC is most certainly still a tossup.

The picture in your signature looks....very 2003.

NC is most def not a tossup this time around; let alone a state that Obama is going to win again. Just break things down, the President won it just barely in 2008 in an amazing year for Democrats and a feel good campaign/deeply unpopular Republican President to boot. Now he has struggling approvals a still struggling economy, and he is much more polarizing in 2012 then he was in 2008. Despite, the fact that he is ahead of Mitt Romney for now and even if he does win in November; I just don't see him carrying North Carolina under any circumstances barring another Democratic landslide of similar magnitude. Which is very unlikely at this time.

[fezzyfestoon]

His best shots are probably Arizona and Minnesota. Maybe a few more like Alaska and the Dakotas.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

All of them.

Unless Romney picks a bad running mate that gaffes a lot, then you will be right.

Utah?

[Minnesota Mike]

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I don't see how you can call North Carolina anything but a tossup at this point. Nearly every poll taken of the state has both candidates within the margin of error and the states demographics are trending towards the Democrats. Until I see some empirical evidence (not GOP talking points) to contrary I think you have to rate the state a tossup.

[pbrower2a]

Ruling out a Romney collapse -- among those that President Obama won by less than 10%... Ohio most likely followed by Indiana (due to the auto bailout).

In those that he lost by 10% or less -- Arizona (reversal of the Favorite Son effect, demographic change), Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina. I can't imagine the President doing worse among white Protestant fundamentalists than he did in 2008.  Such voters figure heavily in Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina.