PPP Maryland Poll: Obama up 23

[Smash255]

So can someone please explain to me why this election will look like 2004 when all of the polls look like 2008?

Actually, the Maryland poll sample is +32, so that makes it much MORE Democratic than the people that turned out in '08. Also, not sure who said this election would look like '04. I've thought all along that party turnout will fall somewhere between '04 and '08 turnout

Wrong.  Again look at the poll, it has two different questions, party registration and party id.  Party registration in MD is Dem +30, close to the +32 registration numbers in the poll.  Party id in the poll was D+24, basically the exact same as 2008.

[Smash255]

Maryland is solid D at this point. Republicans haven't carried Maryland since the 1988 Presidential Election of George H.W. Bush. It was one of Bill Clinton's best states in both of his Presidential Election Wins. It was also one of Jimmy Carter's 6 states that he carried in the 1980 Presidential Election when he lost to Reagan.

"at this point"...?  Maryland's been a solid D for decades.  The recent demographic landslide that has hit the state cements that.  People forget that Maryland's the fourth blackest state in the country.  Maryland is 43% VAP minority the vast majority of which is blacks.  Interestingly the white population of Maryland has grown very conservative.  McCain won Maryland whites by 2% and I bet Bush won them by 6 or 7 in 2004

I wouldn't say McCain winning whites by 2% in Maryland when he won whites by 12% nationwide = very conservative.

Now, the rural less educated whites in western MD and along the eastern shore would fit that bill, the suburban well educated whites, not so much....