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bawlexus91
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« on: May 24, 2012, 03:01:16 pm »
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« Last Edit: June 07, 2012, 01:56:44 am by . »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2012, 11:54:33 pm »

The We Ask America poll looks quite a bit off.

If Barrett's internal has him down by 2, he probably loses by the 2010 margin, which was about 6%.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2012, 06:09:43 am »
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Internals aren't necessarily biased, though they obviously tend to favor their candidate.

I find it interesting that Walker, despite outspending Barrett 25-1, cannot get above 50%, and Barrett is usually a little outside the margin of error with him. I suspect he has nowhere to go but down, with the Democratic GOTV operation now in full swing.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2012, 08:52:38 am »
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Internals aren't necessarily biased, though they obviously tend to favor their candidate.

I find it interesting that Walker, despite outspending Barrett 25-1, cannot get above 50%, and Barrett is usually a little outside the margin of error with him. I suspect he has nowhere to go but down, with the Democratic GOTV operation now in full swing.

Of course he can get above 50%. He's done so in numerous polls.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2012, 01:14:28 pm »

It's getting closer:

Quote
In a survey of 935 likely recall voters, conducted by the Garin Hart Yang Research Group from May 22 to 24, Walker led Barrett by 49.89 to 48.62 percent. With the poll's margin of error at plus or minus 3.3 percent, that means the race is essentially tied.
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Scott
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2012, 01:22:31 pm »
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It's getting closer:

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In a survey of 935 likely recall voters, conducted by the Garin Hart Yang Research Group from May 22 to 24, Walker led Barrett by 49.89 to 48.62 percent. With the poll's margin of error at plus or minus 3.3 percent, that means the race is essentially tied.

Except, decimals...
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2012, 01:32:33 pm »
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The thing is, Walker can lose if Democrats can actually get their people out to vote. Barrett has been shown to lead with Independents, which means he's got a chance at winning this if Democrats turnout.
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Please seek a 5150 if your candidate loses.
krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2012, 04:57:38 pm »
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How is it that the liberals are disregarding public polling for internal polling?
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2012, 05:08:21 pm »
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Polls tend to bore me these days, but if one is going to do it, it might be more productive to watch the movement over time of the numbers of each polling outfit, assuming they keep using the same methodology, then looking at snap shots in time involving several outfits, all doing their own thing, and then dissing each other as to which poll is good, which sucks, and so forth.
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