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| | |-+  By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)
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Author Topic: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)  (Read 4585 times)
morgieb
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« Reply #125 on: April 17, 2014, 07:03:21 pm »
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On this note - and I've been wondering about this: Is the unusually high Greens vote in Australia correlated in any way to the fact that the Unions - and often very conservative unions at that - still have a lot of power over Labor selections?
Possibly. IMO it does have an impact, but I think the reason the main reason why the Greens vote is quite high comes down to IRV and compulsory voting (i.e. there are some protest voters voting Green, this however is possibly receding with the rise of the PUP).
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« Reply #126 on: April 17, 2014, 09:32:51 pm »
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism
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A comparative analysis of polling data of support for same-sex marriage and membership demographics of the SDA found that the socially conservative positions of the SDA leadership - particularly Joe de Bruyn - are likely to be at odds with the rank-and-file of the union.The lobby group Australian Marriage Equality challenged the SDA to survey its membership before contributing further to the same-sex marriage debate in Australia. To date, the SDA has never sought the views of its membership on the issue.

In response to the union's position on gay rights, SDA members in Brisbane met to organise a grassroots revolt at the quarterly members meeting and raise the issue of same-sex marriage.


But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.

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« Reply #127 on: April 17, 2014, 10:59:57 pm »
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism
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A comparative analysis of polling data of support for same-sex marriage and membership demographics of the SDA found that the socially conservative positions of the SDA leadership - particularly Joe de Bruyn - are likely to be at odds with the rank-and-file of the union.The lobby group Australian Marriage Equality challenged the SDA to survey its membership before contributing further to the same-sex marriage debate in Australia. To date, the SDA has never sought the views of its membership on the issue.

In response to the union's position on gay rights, SDA members in Brisbane met to organise a grassroots revolt at the quarterly members meeting and raise the issue of same-sex marriage.


But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.



That's an issue for the ALP not for the unions themselves.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #128 on: April 17, 2014, 11:15:06 pm »
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism
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A comparative analysis of polling data of support for same-sex marriage and membership demographics of the SDA found that the socially conservative positions of the SDA leadership - particularly Joe de Bruyn - are likely to be at odds with the rank-and-file of the union.The lobby group Australian Marriage Equality challenged the SDA to survey its membership before contributing further to the same-sex marriage debate in Australia. To date, the SDA has never sought the views of its membership on the issue.

In response to the union's position on gay rights, SDA members in Brisbane met to organise a grassroots revolt at the quarterly members meeting and raise the issue of same-sex marriage.


But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.



That's an issue for the ALP not for the unions themselves.

It's also an issue for the unions. If I were a member, I wouldn't be happy than my dues are used to spread homophobia.
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« Reply #129 on: April 17, 2014, 11:23:29 pm »
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism
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A comparative analysis of polling data of support for same-sex marriage and membership demographics of the SDA found that the socially conservative positions of the SDA leadership - particularly Joe de Bruyn - are likely to be at odds with the rank-and-file of the union.The lobby group Australian Marriage Equality challenged the SDA to survey its membership before contributing further to the same-sex marriage debate in Australia. To date, the SDA has never sought the views of its membership on the issue.

In response to the union's position on gay rights, SDA members in Brisbane met to organise a grassroots revolt at the quarterly members meeting and raise the issue of same-sex marriage.


But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.



That's an issue for the ALP not for the unions themselves.

That's kind of my point. The Union leadership are acting like its still 1985 (the right union leaders were the ones who forced the NSW Wran Government to not respond to AIDS "because that's looking after poofters" (exact quote)) - that leadership usually is the spawn of previous leaders who have fed their children the same bigoted views and perpetuating their disproportionate say at party conference. The SDA threw everything they had - including wasting their memberships dues to stop national conference even VOTING on same sex marriage.

The SDA leadership is untouchable however, due to a disparate membership base and the fact the workers don't tend to be the most politically savvy.
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morgieb
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« Reply #130 on: April 17, 2014, 11:34:36 pm »
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism
Quote
A comparative analysis of polling data of support for same-sex marriage and membership demographics of the SDA found that the socially conservative positions of the SDA leadership - particularly Joe de Bruyn - are likely to be at odds with the rank-and-file of the union.The lobby group Australian Marriage Equality challenged the SDA to survey its membership before contributing further to the same-sex marriage debate in Australia. To date, the SDA has never sought the views of its membership on the issue.

In response to the union's position on gay rights, SDA members in Brisbane met to organise a grassroots revolt at the quarterly members meeting and raise the issue of same-sex marriage.


But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.



That's an issue for the ALP not for the unions themselves.

It's also an issue for the unions. If I were a member, I wouldn't be happy than my dues are used to spread homophobia.

FACT: The SDA is why my mum doesn't vote ALP anymore.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #131 on: May 24, 2014, 06:57:56 pm »
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By-election expected in Queensland state parl.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/05/queensland-set-for-another-by-election.html
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morgieb
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« Reply #132 on: May 24, 2014, 08:44:10 pm »
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Looks like Labor should easily win it back.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #133 on: July 18, 2014, 08:57:48 am »
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Looks like Labor should easily win it back.

One day out from the Stafford by-election, and I can't see anything else but a solid Labor win.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #134 on: July 18, 2014, 11:35:53 am »
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It's on a 7% margin. I suspect the LNP will hold onto lose it narrowly, but regain it next year.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #135 on: July 19, 2014, 04:01:00 am »
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It's on a 7% margin. I suspect the LNP will hold onto lose it narrowly, but regain it next year.

I disagree, Stafford is a Labor-leaning seat, and should be won with a Labor 2PP between 58-62% tonight. It was 5.7% more Labor than Queensland as a whole at the 2012 election.
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« Reply #136 on: July 19, 2014, 04:05:14 am »
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It's less ALP leaning than Redcliffe for example. What should ring serious warning bells for the LNP is that this is right next door and very similar to Campbell Newman's seat.

Talley... seriously? This was a debate about the margins.

Swing is sitting at 19% ... 19%
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« Reply #137 on: July 19, 2014, 04:26:26 am »
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This is not the kind if seat that should generate a Redcliffe-like swing ... but all primaries are in and projected swing is 19.6%. Anything suggesting this is anything less than a complete disaster is fooling themselves.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #138 on: July 19, 2014, 05:12:52 am »
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It's less ALP leaning than Redcliffe for example. What should ring serious warning bells for the LNP is that this is right next door and very similar to Campbell Newman's seat.

Talley... seriously? This was a debate about the margins.

Swing is sitting at 19% ... 19%

I thought Redcliffe was more of a swing seat than Stafford? Redcliffe was only an ALP+2.7 seat at the 2012 election, and was more solid than Stafford for the Liberal/Country Parties pre-1989.

A higher swing in Stafford than in Redcliffe is not good news for the Newman Government though.
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Sibboleth Bist
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« Reply #139 on: July 19, 2014, 12:12:37 pm »
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That is... one hell of a swing.
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Barnes & Noble
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« Reply #140 on: July 19, 2014, 12:57:21 pm »
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Nice to see that these Labor seats finally falling back into place.  Newman is most definitely moving to a safer seat in 2015 if he intends to remain in Parliament.
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Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #141 on: July 20, 2014, 08:19:10 am »
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Nice to see that these Labor seats finally falling back into place.  Newman is most definitely moving to a safer seat in 2015 if he intends to remain in Parliament.

Newman moving seats would probably cost them another 2 seats, much like the ALP's ads late in the 2012 campaign that urged voters not to give the LNP too big a majority.

If you were senior in the LNP what you prefer? Losing Newman? Or losing Government?
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