Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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  Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014  (Read 144198 times)
afleitch
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« Reply #100 on: January 06, 2013, 11:52:23 AM »

Am I the only one seeing a degree of genius in this whole vote, by putting the vote in 2014 they ensure the government in London will play nice to Scotland, and not attempt to limit the local autonomy. So even if they lose they will have gotten several years of peace from Loondon, and the crisis may be less bad in 2014, so the risk that London will cut inn Scottish autonomy or budgets afterward will be a lot smaller.

It's a win win result. Even if the Yes vote can only muster 40-45% that's still a large minority. The result is increased autonomy for Scotland regardless of the outcome.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #101 on: January 06, 2013, 02:37:56 PM »

Am I the only one seeing a degree of genius in this whole vote, by putting the vote in 2014 they ensure the government in London will play nice to Scotland, and not attempt to limit the local autonomy. So even if they lose they will have gotten several years of peace from Loondon, and the crisis may be less bad in 2014, so the risk that London will cut inn Scottish autonomy or budgets afterward will be a lot smaller.

It's a win win result. Even if the Yes vote can only muster 40-45% that's still a large minority. The result is increased autonomy for Scotland regardless of the outcome.

Separatism is playing with fire when it comes to autonomy. Quebecois nationalists were very successful playing this game until the Tories figured out how to win majorities without them. Now their appeals fall on deaf ears.

As someone who is sympathetic to the Scots cause, I suggest they make their increased autonomy concessions count.
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Siloch
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« Reply #102 on: January 10, 2013, 01:38:17 PM »

Scottish Independence is pointless!

01. Keep the pound
02. Keep the Queen
03. Keep the EU (so open border with England)

So we have the same head of state as England, the same currency as England, we keep an open border with England but we lose a huge say in the world, by breaking up the UK.

Who in their right mind would vote for that, seriously?

I'm from Scotland, I'm 18, so I will be 19 or 20 depending on the month and I will vote no on pointless independence.
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Gary J
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« Reply #103 on: January 10, 2013, 06:47:07 PM »

Siloch's interesting contribution seems to suggest that an independent Scotland would re-create the 1603-1707 situation. Scottish ministers would, in theory, lead an independent country but in practice that independence would be severely constrained by English influence.

Before the union the common monarch, resident in England, was far more likely to be guided by his English ministers and English interests than the Scottish ones. King James VI said something about finding it easier to govern Scotland with a pen from Whitehall, than a sword in Scotland.

During the union, Scottish politicians have found it easier to influence the United Kingdom than their pre-union predecessors had to be taken into account in London. A fair number of Prime Ministers have been Scots or at least represented Scottish seats in Parliament, considering the relative sizes of the two countries. In the last century and this; A.J. Balfour was Scottish (representing an English seat), Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman (both Scottish and sitting for a Scottish constituency), H.H. Asquith (English sitting for a Scottish seat), Bonar Law (a Canadian born Scot who represented a Scottish seat for part of his career), Ramsay Macdonald (born in Scotland), Winston Churchill (was MP for Dundee during part of his long career), Harold Macmillan (Englishman of Scottish descent), Sir Alec Douglas-Home (Scottish aristocrat representing a Scottish seat), Tony Blair (born and educated in Scotland), Gordon Brown (a Scot and Scottish MP) and David Cameron (very English but undeniably of Scottish descent).
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #104 on: January 10, 2013, 07:41:36 PM »

If Scotland became independent, would people living in Scotland be able to opt to keep their UK citizenship and move to England? Or would they have no choice and automatically become Scottish?
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doktorb
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« Reply #105 on: January 10, 2013, 11:25:10 PM »

They'll move to CET and screw up the rail timetables
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #106 on: January 11, 2013, 12:34:16 AM »

Why is support for independence dropping? Sad the last poll I saw it at only 30% support
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Frodo
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« Reply #107 on: January 11, 2013, 12:36:56 AM »

There is still a year to go, but since I am not seeing how support for independence will rise to competitive levels, I will go ahead and make the prediction that independence will fail at the ballot-box.  I think Scotland will be fortunate if it gains even more autonomy over its own future than it has now.    
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bore
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« Reply #108 on: January 11, 2013, 08:14:09 AM »

Scottish Independence is pointless!

01. Keep the pound
02. Keep the Queen
03. Keep the EU (so open border with England)

So we have the same head of state as England, the same currency as England, we keep an open border with England but we lose a huge say in the world, by breaking up the UK.

Who in their right mind would vote for that, seriously?

I'm from Scotland, I'm 18, so I will be 19 or 20 depending on the month and I will vote no on pointless independence.
Firstly, welcome to the forum! It's good to see another scot on the board, by my count you're our third.

Also, you've definitely got a point about the pound, but the monarchy is neither here nor there, because it's got no real power anymore. In fact, were Scotland to become independent I'm sure we would go down the  Australia and Canada route, where we are completely separate but share a head of state.

They'll move to CET and screw up the rail timetables

The Scots or the English?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #109 on: January 11, 2013, 08:44:14 AM »

Also, I don't see how *Scotland* could possibly have any less say in the world than it does now, where it has no foreign policy and is "represented" internationally by a foreign (heh, bear with me here Smiley ) government that is itself almost completely isolated in Europe. You (Scotland that is) would have more say in the world than at current if you allied with Iran.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #110 on: January 11, 2013, 08:48:13 AM »

If Scotland became independent, would people living in Scotland be able to opt to keep their UK citizenship and move to England? Or would they have no choice and automatically become Scottish?

There haven't been any negotiations yet as no one has any mandate for such negotiations, but I'd guess a similar solution to what was sorted out with Ireland.
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Frodo
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« Reply #111 on: January 27, 2013, 10:00:51 AM »

This isn't looking good for the separatists at all:

Support for Scottish independence falls to new low

One referendum that is guaranteed to take place in is that on Scottish independence in 2014 and the "no" campaign (or, as it prefers to be known, Better Together) is in an ever-stronger position. The 2012 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, the results of which were released today, shows that support for independence has fallen to just 23 per cent, down from 32 per cent last year and the joint-lowest level since devolution.

Most notable is that backing for independence is now at a lower level than it was when the SNP came to power in 2007, a reminder that many voters support the party in spite of its support for secession, rather than because of it. Before Alex Salmond became First Minister, support for independence averaged 30 per cent, since then it has averaged 26 per cent.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #112 on: January 27, 2013, 06:52:05 PM »

If Britain leaves the EU, would that increase or decrease support for Scottish independence?
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Frodo
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« Reply #113 on: February 18, 2013, 05:42:31 PM »

From nearly a week ago, but I only just found this:

Scottish Independence Gains Support With Help of Young

By Peter Woodifield - Feb 13, 2013 8:44 AM ET

Support among voters in Scotland for becoming an independent country is rising, with a majority of young voters now ready to quit the U.K., according to a poll published today.

Backing for independence rose to 34 percent of respondents, while those in favor of retaining the status quo fell to 55 percent, according to the Ipsos MORI survey published in today’s London-based Times newspaper. The 21-percentage-point gap compares with 28 points in October and 20 points in June, based on reports from the same pollster.

“Our latest poll shows a boost in support for those campaigning for Scottish independence, who will take some encouragement from these findings,” Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said on the pollster’s website. “Having said that, support for independence is behind where it was a year ago.”
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #114 on: February 19, 2013, 10:31:29 AM »

From nearly a week ago, but I only just found this:

Scottish Independence Gains Support With Help of Young

By Peter Woodifield - Feb 13, 2013 8:44 AM ET

Support among voters in Scotland for becoming an independent country is rising, with a majority of young voters now ready to quit the U.K., according to a poll published today.

Backing for independence rose to 34 percent of respondents, while those in favor of retaining the status quo fell to 55 percent, according to the Ipsos MORI survey published in today’s London-based Times newspaper. The 21-percentage-point gap compares with 28 points in October and 20 points in June, based on reports from the same pollster.

“Our latest poll shows a boost in support for those campaigning for Scottish independence, who will take some encouragement from these findings,” Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said on the pollster’s website. “Having said that, support for independence is behind where it was a year ago.”

Good job we don't vote then (See the AV referendum).
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Siloch
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« Reply #115 on: March 04, 2013, 04:10:20 PM »

Scotland would need to reapply to join the EU as a new country, says Latvia's foreign minister. Latvia will be leading the EU at that time. It would be interesting though, would the rest of the UK need to reapply as well.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #116 on: March 04, 2013, 04:13:04 PM »

Scotland would need to reapply to join the EU as a new country, says Latvia's foreign minister. Latvia will be leading the EU at that time. It would be interesting though, would the rest of the UK need to reapply as well.

I can only think of an example where a border was dissolved, not a new one established (the GDR).
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LastVoter
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« Reply #117 on: March 05, 2013, 04:42:29 AM »

Am I the only one seeing a degree of genius in this whole vote, by putting the vote in 2014 they ensure the government in London will play nice to Scotland, and not attempt to limit the local autonomy. So even if they lose they will have gotten several years of peace from Loondon, and the crisis may be less bad in 2014, so the risk that London will cut inn Scottish autonomy or budgets afterward will be a lot smaller.

It's a win win result. Even if the Yes vote can only muster 40-45% that's still a large minority. The result is increased autonomy for Scotland regardless of the outcome.

Separatism is playing with fire when it comes to autonomy. Quebecois nationalists were very successful playing this game until the Tories figured out how to win majorities without them. Now their appeals fall on deaf ears.

As someone who is sympathetic to the Scots cause, I suggest they make their increased autonomy concessions count.

I think what actually happened here is that Dippers took advantage of Liberals shooting themselves in the foot over and over again.
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afleitch
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« Reply #118 on: March 05, 2013, 05:29:59 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2013, 05:44:13 AM by afleitch »

Scotland would need to reapply to join the EU as a new country, says Latvia's foreign minister. Latvia will be leading the EU at that time. It would be interesting though, would the rest of the UK need to reapply as well.

I can only think of an example where a border was dissolved, not a new one established (the GDR).

All sides need to be honest on this issue. The truth of the matter is no one knows the legal position because it has never happened before. In 1707 Scotland did not become part of England; the two nations joined to become a United Kingdom of Great Britain. In 1801, Ireland formally joined that United Kingdom, so when Ireland left then it left the UK, but the UK existed prior to Ireland and continued to exist legally. However if Scotland leaves the UK having been one of the two nations that founded it, does it mean that what is left of the UK (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) is a continuing state or will two separate nations be formed? The ‘Kingdom of England’ in 1707 included Wales but also included what is now Northern Ireland because that was part the area that made up the Kingdom of Ireland as proclaimed in the Crown of Ireland Act of 1542 which after the Tudor conquest of Ireland made a united island that at that time was in a personal and political union with the Kingdom of England. So all territory currently considered part of the UK was held by either the Kingdom of England with Ireland in personal union, or by the Kingdom of Scotland. It could be argued that if Scotland leaves this union then what it leaves behind is not Great Britain, which was only formed by the Act of Union but the Kingdom of England and the territories constitutionally bound to it.

This means that the ‘rump UK’ would not the same country that was created in 1707 and therefore has no rights to claim to be a successor state to it. It has no right to retain its Security Council seat and no right to continued membership of the European Union. However you could argue for the contrary, that in 1707 Scotland was technically not dissolved. The Kingdom remained. It’s laws, passed by the Parliament of Scotland remained. It’s legal system (Scots Law) remained. It’s established Church remained.  All that happened is that all legal decisions were made at Westminster in common agreement with England (and later Ireland) and Scotland sent representatives to the new Commons and the new Lords. Some laws had to be tailored or enacted specifically to suit Scots Law. This occurred in such a way that Scotland ceased to be an independent nation and this arrangement was modified upon the re-establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999. If Scotland chooses to withdraw from that arrangement in all matters of law then it does so in manner which means that constitutionally Scotland is now an independent state. This therefore means that all treaties and laws etc that the United Kingdom entered into still applies and the ‘rump UK’ is a successor state. Question is where would that leave Scotland?

In terms of precedent, when Czechoslovakia split, neither new nation claimed to be a successor state so there was no problem. Russia claimed successor status to the Soviet Union because it had the ‘agreement’ of the 11 member nations of the C.I.S and this was accepted. Belarus and Ukraine were technically independent members of the UN already and the Baltic states had gained independence before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Furthermore excepting these five nations, the other former states of the Soviet Union were established within the Soviet Union by the Soviet Union from the old Russian SSR which was a continuation of the Russian Empire. So whether the remainder of the UK is considered a successor state depends entirely on what the states themselves decide to do. However it’s worth noting that in Yugoslavia, the UN refused in resolution 777 to recognised Serbia and Montenegro’s claims to be the successor state and the UN said that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia ceased to exist.
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Gary J
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« Reply #119 on: March 05, 2013, 10:54:36 AM »

Looking at the wording of the Treaty of Union and the Acts of Union which gave legal effect to the treaty, the Kingdoms of England and Scotland were combined into a united kingdom of Great Britain. Whilst England and Scotland continued to exist, the two former Kingdoms had been ended by being merged into an incorporative union.

The Great British united kingdom, created by the Anglo-Scottish union, was itself subsumed into the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland from 1 January 1801. After that point there were three parties to the union, so the withdrawal of just one would not automatically end the union itself.

Subsequent developments have created a United Kingdom which now includes the four nations of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

None of these components of the union is currently a sovereign state, but they all have somewhat different institutional relationships to the United Kingdom and to a certain extent different laws. I do not see why one nation withdrawing from the relationship would end it between the other parts, any more than the departure of 26 Irish counties to become the Irish Free State (now the Republic of Ireland) affected the remainder of the union.

If Scotland now decided to withdraw from the United Kingdom, the remaining three components of the modern United Kingdom would clearly be the successor state.

Some may argue that the union between England and Scotland is more fundamental to the United Kingdom than the other links, but I do not see the legal basis for such a claim today rather than in the 1707-1800 period.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #120 on: March 17, 2013, 04:37:58 PM »

Tavish Scott wants home rule for Shetland if Scotland leaves the UK. Tongue
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politicus
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« Reply #121 on: March 17, 2013, 04:49:05 PM »

Tavish Scott wants home rule for Shetland if Scotland leaves the UK. Tongue
Why do you consider that a bad thing? It would be natural for both the Orkney Islands and Shetland to have home rule since they are distinct communities. In the case of Shetland its quite far from mainland Scotland as well.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #122 on: March 17, 2013, 04:53:12 PM »

Tavish Scott wants home rule for Shetland if Scotland leaves the UK. Tongue
Why do you consider that a bad thing? It would be natural for both the Orkney Islands and Shetland to have home rule since they are distinct communities. In the case of Shetland its quite far from mainland Scotland as well.

Nooo, I just thought it quite ironic. This referendum's just becoming more of a joke.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #123 on: April 20, 2013, 09:55:08 AM »

Miliband at ScotsLab conference: "Let the Tories try to divide our society, let the SNP try to divide our country."

One hypothetical I'm thinking about though for is Yes wins, how does Labour divide itself up? Does it have a Sinn Fein kinda thing with the same party existing on both sides of the border?
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Siloch
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« Reply #124 on: April 23, 2013, 05:13:24 PM »

I have a funny feeling, Scotland will vote for independence. Scots are very patriotic, posh English politicians telling us we can't do it, will make us want to do it, especially if 16 and 17 year olds get the vote.
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