Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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  Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014  (Read 145586 times)
Beezer
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« Reply #150 on: November 27, 2013, 09:55:34 AM »

About half of the white paper appears to be an SNP-manifesto educating the public about the things they'do if Scotland became independent. BTW, are there any polls/surveys on EU-support among the different nations of the UK? I suppose if the EU and the euro were a more attractive option, winning the referendum would be a tad easier especially if the electorate had a more pro-European slant.
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afleitch
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« Reply #151 on: January 31, 2014, 07:17:54 AM »

Two nuggets of news today.

First is a belated posting of the ICM poll suggesting a 53-47 No vote, with the closest poll yet for the Yes campaign and the second is the suggestion by the Director General of the European Commission suggests that an independent Scotland could become an EU member in as little as eighteen months;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25965703

Things are certainly getting interesting again Smiley
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Zanas
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« Reply #152 on: January 31, 2014, 07:21:23 AM »

How reliable would you say this 53-47 poll is ? I only recall having seen large No majorities as of yet. Is there something in particular, in your opinion, that may have shifted so much of the public, or is this just a fluke ?
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afleitch
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« Reply #153 on: January 31, 2014, 08:42:33 AM »

It’s an ICM poll. They are the gold standard in UK polling, though as these things go you are only as good as your last victory. It was one of the first firms to pick up the shift to the ‘No’ vote in the AV referendum (‘No’ of course won handsomely). That vote is a reminder that people’s attitudes can shift the closer they get to polling day. At the same time the SNP won a wave election; remember at that start of that campaign, Labour were comfortably ahead. One flaw in the ICM poll, but is not exclusive to them, is a need to upweight 18-24 year old voters in the sample. There are also legal difficulties in obtaining the personal information of 16-17 year olds who will be allowed to vote. Most polling companies that have been polling the referendum so far such as TNS BRMB are not exactly reputational and are reluctant to channel the people it polls into making a ‘forced choice’ between Yes and No. The TNS BRMB in December for example had the Yes 14% behind but that was based on 33% not saying how they would vote. The other problem is that despite the actual polling question being known; ‘Should Scotland be an independent country’ not all pollsters actually ask that question. As far as I can recall only Panelbase and ICM ask it, without exposition. For the record Panelbase are the most ‘pro Yes’ of the pollsters but underestimated the SNP back in 2011, so it’s record is questionable.

What we should see, with forced choice is what people expect to be the case anyway; a core 45% No, a core 40% Yes and people inbetween.

In terms of who finds independence more palatable it appears to be younger voters however they are defined. That goes for voters under 65 in general. Voters over 65 are opposed, but are not out of reach. The same is true of women who tend to be more against than in favour. Less well off voters, those in the ‘C2DE’ classification are in favour. What is noticeable is that according to ICM, of the 2011 voters for the SNP, 83-84% will vote yes. That bloc includes the casual SNP voters it picked up from the other parties in it’s 2011 wave election. Of the rump Labour vote, 26% will vote yes as will 26% of the Lib Dems. If that figures moves to just 30% or so, then Yes would be ahead.

There are two big issues that will test both sides. Firstly the economic recovery; one would expect that to impact the Yes cause, but if that recovery is linked to a Tory recovery in the polls (which may be happening) then what effect will an increased likelihood of a Tory victory have on the polls? Secondly, the European Elections means the whoring of UKIP for a few months in the summer. Given the massive gulf in voting intention, will UKIP’s bluster, which goes down like a lead balloon in Scotland serve to heighten the social and political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #154 on: January 31, 2014, 08:58:28 AM »

I didn't follow this very closely, but would high turnout help the Independence side more or the pro-UK side ? Who is more motivated to vote ?
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YL
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« Reply #155 on: January 31, 2014, 01:03:38 PM »

How reliable would you say this 53-47 poll is ? I only recall having seen large No majorities as of yet. Is there something in particular, in your opinion, that may have shifted so much of the public, or is this just a fluke ?

My initial reaction is that it may well be a fluke, but to see whether there's any support for it from future polls.

There are definite concerns about the weighting.  As afleitch says, they undersampled 18-24 year olds and so heavily upweighted them, something which increases margin of error.  It appears that in this poll the sample of young voters (especially, but not only, among 18-24 year olds) was much more pro-independence than in previous polls; in fact among 18-24 year olds support for independence appeared to be up 33%!

See John Curtice's article at http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/01/icm-poll-shows-biggest-swing-yet/
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Lurker
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« Reply #156 on: January 31, 2014, 03:49:44 PM »

Seems very much like an outlier. Will be interesting to see whether future polls confirm this trend.

There looks to be a shortage of polls on this referendum; according to that site, the last one was relased almost two months ago.
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Frodo
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« Reply #157 on: February 06, 2014, 09:07:39 PM »

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   
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YL
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« Reply #158 on: February 07, 2014, 02:34:54 AM »

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #159 on: February 07, 2014, 02:54:46 AM »

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

Unless I am mistaken, the SNP won their victories despite support for independence being less than huge in the past, so I don't see a narrow loss really having that much of an impact. Considering polling over the past year, the loss being narrow could be spun as the Yes vote over performing expectations and momentum being on the side of independence. A landslide loss though would obviously be embarrassing and bad for the SNP. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #160 on: February 07, 2014, 11:02:00 AM »

It would depend entirely on how the party were to react internally to such a defeat. I won't pretend to understand the workings of the SNP as an organisation, so can basically just note that the current duumvirate of sorts seem to have things very ordered at present, but (on 'tuther hand) that you don't have to go back that far to find very bloody factional disputes.

Regardless, I think we can be fairly sure that Salmond is not going to blame a referendum defeat on Jews and darkies, unlike a certain Premier of Quebec.
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warandwar
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« Reply #161 on: February 08, 2014, 09:41:56 AM »

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.

A narrow loss would be fine, but they would run into the problem that the PQ has where they can't ever have a referendum unless they're confident they'll win as a decrease in the Yes% would be seen as a massive failure.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #162 on: February 08, 2014, 03:49:25 PM »

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.

A narrow loss would be fine, but they would run into the problem that the PQ has where they can't ever have a referendum unless they're confident they'll win as a decrease in the Yes% would be seen as a massive failure.

In Quebec, any Yes result over 40% wouldn't be seen as a massive failure. I suppose it would be similar in Scotland.
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warandwar
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« Reply #163 on: February 08, 2014, 11:05:33 PM »

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.

A narrow loss would be fine, but they would run into the problem that the PQ has where they can't ever have a referendum unless they're confident they'll win as a decrease in the Yes% would be seen as a massive failure.

In Quebec, any Yes result over 40% wouldn't be seen as a massive failure. I suppose it would be similar in Scotland.

I mean it would be a failure for the narrative of the PQ.
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Frodo
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« Reply #164 on: February 13, 2014, 06:23:35 PM »

The UK government has kindly informed Scotland that if they do in fact do the deed, they will lose the pound sterling, and will have to make do with an alternative -perhaps adopting the euro.  
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #165 on: February 14, 2014, 03:05:18 AM »

Would Scotland really have a problem with joining the Eurozone though? I was under the impression that they were more favorable towards the EU/Eurozone than the rest of the UK.
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YL
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« Reply #166 on: February 14, 2014, 04:06:36 AM »

Not having a currency union wouldn't stop an independent Scotland using the pound unilaterally.  Montenegro isn't in the Eurozone but uses the Euro.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #167 on: February 14, 2014, 10:50:43 AM »

Would Scotland really have a problem with joining the Eurozone though? I was under the impression that they were more favorable towards the EU/Eurozone than the rest of the UK.

If they joined the Eurozone, the Scots would have even less influence over their currency than if they continued to use the British pound despite having no official say in it.
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Beezer
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« Reply #168 on: February 14, 2014, 02:02:25 PM »

It would probably take at least 4-5 years for them to join the euro anyway if everything went off w/o a hitch (EU membership negotiations, then spending two years as part of the ERM II).
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #169 on: February 14, 2014, 06:28:54 PM »

It would probably take at least 4-5 years for them to join the euro anyway if everything went off w/o a hitch (EU membership negotiations, then spending two years as part of the ERM II).

I fail to see how Scotland could both keep the pound and be part of ERM II.  Even if only as a temporary measure, the Scottish punnd would have to be independent of the pound sterling during any transition to the Euro unless Britain were to seek to join the Euro.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #170 on: February 14, 2014, 09:11:11 PM »

It would probably take at least 4-5 years for them to join the euro anyway if everything went off w/o a hitch (EU membership negotiations, then spending two years as part of the ERM II).

I fail to see how Scotland could both keep the pound and be part of ERM II.  Even if only as a temporary measure, the Scottish punnd would have to be independent of the pound sterling during any transition to the Euro unless Britain were to seek to join the Euro.

EU is always willing to bend its rules if needed.

And negociations shouldn't be long, since they don't need to adjust their laws to EU norms (they are already adjusted).
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doktorb
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« Reply #171 on: February 15, 2014, 01:56:04 PM »

What lessons after there, with regards to currency, in Ireland's independence in 1922?
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Јas
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« Reply #172 on: February 17, 2014, 08:09:04 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2014, 08:11:08 AM by Јas »

What lessons after there, with regards to currency, in Ireland's independence in 1922?

Well we didn't get around to setting up our own currency until 1928 - and maintained the link with sterling until 1979.

For 1922-28, banknotes issued by the Bank of England, the British Treasury and six Irish banks were in circulation. Only the British Treasury notes had legal tender status. The set-up doesn't appear to have been regarded as particularly problematic or difficult.

The Irish Pound: From Origins to EMU by John Kelly is a readable, reasonably concise summary of the history of Irish currency post-independence.
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YL
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« Reply #173 on: February 18, 2014, 02:34:00 PM »

No comment on José Manuel Barroso's comments about an independent Scotland joining the EU?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #174 on: February 18, 2014, 02:51:34 PM »

No comment on José Manuel Barroso's comments about an independent Scotland joining the EU?

Who cares? He is on his way out and plenty of European countries would do anything to annoy UK.
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