Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014  (Read 145608 times)
afleitch
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« Reply #175 on: February 20, 2014, 07:10:50 AM »

Has the intervention by the ‘Gang of Three’ on the matter of a Scottish currency helped the Yes campaign? Survation’s new poll have Yes up 6 to 38% and No down 5 to 47% with 16% Don’t knows. The changes are from their last poll in January which came hot on the heels of ICM’s poll showing a narrow gap. Unfortunately Survation also changed their methodology which used to weight turnout against Westminster voting intention(!) so it’s difficult to confirm if there is correlation.

TNS also have released a poll, but this is from 6th February so is quite out of date. Yes is up 3 to 35%, No down 5 to 44% with the Don’t Knows at 21%.

As talked about a few weeks ago, we have pollsters without good track records releasing polls for the campaign. ICM dip their toe in now and then. Other pollsters have stayed away. Hopefully we will see the more established polling companies getting involved after the summer.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #176 on: February 20, 2014, 10:06:14 AM »

Not having a currency union wouldn't stop an independent Scotland using the pound unilaterally.  Montenegro isn't in the Eurozone but uses the Euro.

The Eurozone crisis has changed a lot of conceptions of what joining the Euro would entail. Basically you lose the ability to set an interest rate that suits your own country (something most of the southern Med countries have found out to their cost) and any way to devaluate your currency which can kick start an economy in the doldrums.

Once you're inside the Euro these issues are permanent so it's a huge decision to enter into it. I suspect a lot of the political class in those southern Med countries I mentioned regret not realising what they were getting their countries into in January 2002 when the Euro went live as an everyday currency for the general public.
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YL
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« Reply #177 on: February 20, 2014, 01:45:54 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2014, 02:07:34 PM by YL »

Has the intervention by the ‘Gang of Three’ on the matter of a Scottish currency helped the Yes campaign? Survation’s new poll have Yes up 6 to 38% and No down 5 to 47% with 16% Don’t knows. The changes are from their last poll in January which came hot on the heels of ICM’s poll showing a narrow gap. Unfortunately Survation also changed their methodology which used to weight turnout against Westminster voting intention(!) so it’s difficult to confirm if there is correlation.

According to John Curtice (here) the previous weighting was on recalled 2010 Westminster vote, and the new one is on recalled 2011 Holyrood vote.  He says that evidence from other polling companies points to the latter being more reliable.

While various questions about weighting methods and the like cloud the picture a bit, I think the recent polls are giving reasons for Yes supporters to become more optimistic, though I still think they're unlikely to actually win.
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YL
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« Reply #178 on: February 24, 2014, 02:11:49 PM »

More polls:

ICM Yes 37 (no change) No 49 (+5) undecided 14 (-5) (NB changes to methodology)

Panelbase Yes 37 (no change) No 47 (-2) undecided 16 (+2)
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Cassius
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« Reply #179 on: February 24, 2014, 06:07:47 PM »

So, could it be said that, perhaps, there is some kind of symbolic margin that the yes vote will have to cross in order for the referendum not to be seen as a failure for the SNP? I don't know, something like a 45 percent+ yes vote? I'm just thinking, because a relatively close result could potentially strengthen the SNP's hand if they want to devolve further powers to the Scottish Parliament. On the other hand, if the no side wins by something like 20-30 points (seems relatively unlikely at this stage, but, you never know), such a case would seem weakened. Just a thought. I mean, obviously, a no vote would be a failure for the SNP, but a close result might soften the blow quite a bit, as described above.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #180 on: February 24, 2014, 07:17:19 PM »

Assuming no great shift in opinion by September, they'll want it close enough so that they can legitimately call for a re-run 'soon'. Exactly what 'close enough' is is not yet clear.
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THE_TITAN
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« Reply #181 on: March 03, 2014, 11:03:49 AM »
« Edited: March 03, 2014, 11:05:36 AM by THE_TITAN »

The Scottish people need to realise that Alex Salmond and his SNP cronies have no plan B for two integral parts of their white paper.

First on the currency union, all three main Westminster parties have clearly stated no such union will take place and yet Salmond continues to propagate the opinion that a currency union will happen and that it is all bluff from the three main parties. I'm not Scottish but I wouldn't be prepared to gamble on the currency. Let's assume, as is most likely the case, that Westminster doesn't back-track and no currency union takes place, what are Scotland's other options? Well the first option would be to create their own currency, huge problems and costs would arise in doing so. A new Scottish currency would incur large costs due to currency conversion of imports/exports and would also be exposed to currency risk and that's not mentioning the cost of re-structuring that would have to take place. The other option would be to join the euro, which at present is neither an enticing prospect nor a viable one as my next point will indicate.

The Scots will lose their EU membership and have to re-apply as a new member-state. Salmond seems to assume that the rules in EU law won't apply to Scotland and that it is a "special" case. This is just simply not the case at all! Scotland will no doubt have to give up something significant in accession negotiations, because every country has had to in the past. Plus they would need the acceptance of all EU member-states. Spain certainly would have a vested interest in vetoing the Scottish bid so as to dissuade Catalonia from attempting to gain independence.

Those are just two primary issues that the SNP have no back-up plan for, or at least they have not detailed such plans in public. We're not even mentioning the tough negotiations that would occur with the rest of the UK if Scotland were to vote "yes", by which point the gloves will well and truly be off and all the niceties of the "better together" campaign will be out of the window.

The SNP really don't have a strong enough argument to leave the Union.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #182 on: March 03, 2014, 04:13:52 PM »

The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.
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THE_TITAN
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« Reply #183 on: March 03, 2014, 04:22:54 PM »

The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #184 on: March 03, 2014, 05:13:39 PM »

The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.

Xahar is right. To enter EU, you have to conform to various regulations, which are pre-defined. Logically, Scotland already respect all those regulations, given it's already subjected to those regulations.
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THE_TITAN
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« Reply #185 on: March 03, 2014, 05:17:24 PM »

The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.

Xahar is right. To enter EU, you have to conform to various regulations, which are pre-defined. Logically, Scotland already respect all those regulations, given it's already subjected to those regulations.

May be so but it is an irrelevant point. They would legally be a new member-state and so have to re-apply. Accession process would be lengthy even for a country like Scotland that adheres to all rules and regs. Dr. Barroso didn't say it would be "difficult" for no reason. All 28 EU member-states would have to agree and I think you'd at the very least have to persuade Spain.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #186 on: March 03, 2014, 05:31:52 PM »

The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.

Xahar is right. To enter EU, you have to conform to various regulations, which are pre-defined. Logically, Scotland already respect all those regulations, given it's already subjected to those regulations.

May be so but it is an irrelevant point. They would legally be a new member-state and so have to re-apply. Accession process would be lengthy even for a country like Scotland that adheres to all rules and regs. Dr. Barroso didn't say it would be "difficult" for no reason. All 28 EU member-states would have to agree and I think you'd at the very least have to persuade Spain.

Difficult, but not lenghty (the long part is all the regulations). Spain is so broke than it should be possible to buy it. And Barroso will be replaced later this year.
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bore
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« Reply #187 on: March 03, 2014, 05:51:44 PM »

Salmond claims, and I'm not sure how true this is, that countries like Spain will want Scotland in the EU as quickly as possible because so many of their fisherman use Scottish waters, so economic self interest will trump political grandstanding.
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EPG
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« Reply #188 on: March 03, 2014, 07:18:49 PM »

Plenty of countries use others' currencies, plenty use the euro without being EU members, and plenty peg their currencies to a big neighbour (most closely, Denmark).
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THE_TITAN
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« Reply #189 on: March 03, 2014, 07:59:54 PM »

Plenty of countries use others' currencies, plenty use the euro without being EU members, and plenty peg their currencies to a big neighbour (most closely, Denmark).

Indeed they do, but if Scotland wants to join the EU I cannot use sterling without a currency union because if they do so, an independent Scotland would technically have no central bank. EU rules stipulate that member-states must have a central bank and so using sterling without a currency union is not an option if Scotland wants to successfully join the EU after voting for independence.
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Јas
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« Reply #190 on: March 04, 2014, 09:54:51 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2014, 09:57:11 AM by Јas »

If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option.

Indeed they do, but if Scotland wants to join the EU I cannot use sterling without a currency union because if they do so, an independent Scotland would technically have no central bank. EU rules stipulate that member-states must have a central bank and so using sterling without a currency union is not an option if Scotland wants to successfully join the EU after voting for independence.

I have some awareness of the central bank criteria as apply to eurozone candidacy, but am unfamiliar with same with regard to EU membership.

I'd be grateful if you could help me with a citation as to where in the Copenhagen Criteria or the acquis that speaks to EU applicant states requiring a central bank (and how that is defined); and, also, grateful if you could comment on whether a central bank which elects to in effect maintain a currency union, by shadowing interest rate changes and so forth, meets the same criterion.
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EPG
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« Reply #191 on: March 04, 2014, 01:58:30 PM »

Plenty of countries use others' currencies, plenty use the euro without being EU members, and plenty peg their currencies to a big neighbour (most closely, Denmark).

Indeed they do, but if Scotland wants to join the EU I cannot use sterling without a currency union because if they do so, an independent Scotland would technically have no central bank. EU rules stipulate that member-states must have a central bank and so using sterling without a currency union is not an option if Scotland wants to successfully join the EU after voting for independence.

It wouldn't technically have no central bank. It could create a central bank that pegs its currency as Ireland did with sterling or as Denmark does with the euro. That may not be the SNP's proposal, but I'm not particularly in the business of supporting their arguments for independence. However, it would be possible to devolve exchange rate policy to the UK/Europe.
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THE_TITAN
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« Reply #192 on: March 04, 2014, 02:33:56 PM »

Plenty of countries use others' currencies, plenty use the euro without being EU members, and plenty peg their currencies to a big neighbour (most closely, Denmark).

Indeed they do, but if Scotland wants to join the EU I cannot use sterling without a currency union because if they do so, an independent Scotland would technically have no central bank. EU rules stipulate that member-states must have a central bank and so using sterling without a currency union is not an option if Scotland wants to successfully join the EU after voting for independence.

It wouldn't technically have no central bank. It could create a central bank that pegs its currency as Ireland did with sterling or as Denmark does with the euro. That may not be the SNP's proposal, but I'm not particularly in the business of supporting their arguments for independence. However, it would be possible to devolve exchange rate policy to the UK/Europe.

You may be right but then what is the point of independence if you are going to keep the same currency but have less powers relating to it? Surely that is a worse situation than if Scotland stays with the United Kingdom?!... I am becoming a bit annoyed at the pick and choose attitude that the SNP seem to have, if they want to become independent then go the whole way stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable. If Scotland want to go it alone they will have no help from the UK I can assure you of that, Westminster is being very nice now but if a "yes" vote is passed then the gloves will be off and the niceties out of the window for good.
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Zanas
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« Reply #193 on: March 04, 2014, 04:32:21 PM »

I am becoming a bit annoyed at the pick and choose attitude that the SNP seem to have, if they want to become independent then go the whole way stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.
This coming from a UK citizen is SWEET and HILARIOUS. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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THE_TITAN
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« Reply #194 on: March 04, 2014, 04:40:27 PM »

I am becoming a bit annoyed at the pick and choose attitude that the SNP seem to have, if they want to become independent then go the whole way stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.
This coming from a UK citizen is SWEET and HILARIOUS. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Hardly, we're not looking to leave it any time soon. As an Englishman I regocnise there are positive and negative aspects to the Union but if the SNP is so hell-bent on independence for Scotland then they should deal with the currency issue, EU etc. by themselves and stop trying to keep the Union systems. If the Union is so negative and bad then why do they want to keep so much of it?
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Zanas
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« Reply #195 on: March 04, 2014, 04:45:24 PM »

You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.
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THE_TITAN
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« Reply #196 on: March 04, 2014, 06:56:16 PM »

You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #197 on: March 04, 2014, 07:29:05 PM »

You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...
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THE_TITAN
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« Reply #198 on: March 04, 2014, 08:17:51 PM »

You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...

Interesting, 10 other EU countries are also out of the Eurozone and it hasn't done the UK much harm though I am a Lib Dem and so am in favour of an eventual switch to the Euro at the right time, rather than rushing things which can lead to disaster. The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #199 on: March 04, 2014, 08:24:11 PM »

You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...

Interesting, 10 other EU countries are also out of the Eurozone and it hasn't done the UK much harm though I am a Lib Dem and so am in favour of an eventual switch to the Euro at the right time, rather than rushing things which can lead to disaster. The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.

The point is than you are saying than Scotland should "stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.", when UK is doing exactly the same with EU. Zanas and I didn't said that it was right or wrong, just than it's ironic than you are saying that.
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