Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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  Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014  (Read 145590 times)
JerryArkansas
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« Reply #225 on: April 20, 2014, 05:44:38 PM »

   Sorry if this has been brought up before, but has there been much discussion about what Scottish independence would mean for the Labor Party in Westminster, if they lost a huge base of support and seats due to losing Scotland?

It has, and the answer is that Scotland has too few seats to make a difference except in the most close elections. It won't lead to eternal Torie dominance forever. The real Labour base is Northern England, so unless Manchester and Liverpool suddenly want to become independent, left-wing Englishmen have nothing to fear.  

In difference to what Jerry said , it's not really like losing the entire West coast. Scotland doesn't even hold 10% of the UK population... 

Sure it'll make it harder, but not that much harder.
I agree I made a bit of a hyperbole, it would be more like losing just CA.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #226 on: April 20, 2014, 06:08:04 PM »

When is the vote?
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Frodo
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« Reply #227 on: April 20, 2014, 07:31:23 PM »


September 18
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Tieteobserver
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« Reply #228 on: April 20, 2014, 08:05:03 PM »

If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Now, if I was a Scottish I'd be rather frightened of leaving the Union. I can't imagine what a SNP single-party rule is capable of doing over 2 decades of government.

For the sake of the Union Jack, however, its a bit better to remain together. Just hurry: as of the last polls, the Yes was making huge gains over the No.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #229 on: April 20, 2014, 08:15:47 PM »

Would the UK be called the United Kingdom of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland? Not the best name if you ask me.
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Meeker
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« Reply #230 on: April 20, 2014, 08:21:32 PM »

I've only been following this from headlines. What's caused the upswing in support for independence? Have the paid communications started?
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Tieteobserver
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« Reply #231 on: April 20, 2014, 08:32:50 PM »

I've only been following this from headlines. What's caused the upswing in support for independence? Have the paid communications started?

Crimea and Putin. Its very agreed that the Crimean (and also Eastern Ukraine to a lesser extent) helped sparking secessionism across Europe. Not that it didn't exist before. Just that their success gives them some moral support.
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Meeker
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« Reply #232 on: April 20, 2014, 08:34:43 PM »

Didn't the Yes numbers start moving upwards long before that all happened?
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #233 on: April 20, 2014, 10:21:05 PM »

Didn't the Yes numbers start moving upwards long before that all happened?

Yes, if Crimea has had any effect, it's been negative fror the Scottish nationalists. In Catalonia, Artur Mas has tried to distance the situation in Crimea and Catalonia because he knows that it doesn't help him.

People in the EU hate Putin, I don't see Crimeans joining Russia helping the Scottish and Catalonian cause.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #234 on: April 20, 2014, 10:40:37 PM »

If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.
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Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
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« Reply #235 on: April 21, 2014, 05:13:06 AM »

If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.

It won't get that far.  If Scotland votes to secede, Cameron will be forced out of office within a week.
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afleitch
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« Reply #236 on: April 21, 2014, 05:33:45 AM »

If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.

It won't get that far.  If Scotland votes to secede, Cameron will be forced out of office within a week.

Yes people seem to not want to deal with the fact we'd have a constitutional crisis. Labour wouldn't be untouched either. They effectively run the No campaign.
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hawkeye59
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« Reply #237 on: April 21, 2014, 05:59:17 AM »

Is there a possibility that Scotland votes yes, but doesn't end up becoming independent?
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Gary J
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« Reply #238 on: April 21, 2014, 06:46:29 AM »

A vote for independence is the start, not the end, of the process of disunion. Various contentious issues would have to be negotiated. When there is an agreement, the Westminster Parliament would have to legislate for the end of the union.

The current devolved Scottish Parliament does not have the legal authority to end the union. Only the Westminster Parliament could do that.
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« Reply #239 on: April 21, 2014, 08:25:04 AM »

I couldn't see it happening, it'd be seen as an outrage and, quite frankly, it'd prove the nats right about Westminster.
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Tieteobserver
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« Reply #240 on: April 21, 2014, 09:31:03 AM »

If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.

Yeah, it was precisely long-term I was referring to.

The Tory is doomed for the next decade anyways.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #241 on: April 21, 2014, 09:45:46 AM »

I couldn't see it happening, it'd be seen as an outrage...

If we're talking actual blocking of independence in the event of a 'Yes' vote, then, sure. But the process of decoupling would take a while: Scotland isn't voting on whether or not to declare UDI.
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change08
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« Reply #242 on: April 21, 2014, 09:48:32 AM »

I couldn't see it happening, it'd be seen as an outrage...

If we're talking actual blocking of independence in the event of a 'Yes' vote, then, sure. But the process of decoupling would take a while: Scotland isn't voting on whether or not to declare UDI.

Isn't the date of secession set for sometime in 2016 should Yes win?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #243 on: April 21, 2014, 09:57:54 AM »

Regarding opinion polls: try here.

Unfortunately most of the firms that have regularly asked the question are probably terrible or provenly so.
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afleitch
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« Reply #244 on: April 21, 2014, 01:23:55 PM »

I've only been following this from headlines. What's caused the upswing in support for independence? Have the paid communications started?

Crimea and Putin. Its very agreed that the Crimean (and also Eastern Ukraine to a lesser extent) helped sparking secessionism across Europe. Not that it didn't exist before. Just that their success gives them some moral support.

That makes absolutely no sense in this context.
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EPG
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« Reply #245 on: April 21, 2014, 01:37:00 PM »

The UK 1922 general election was held a year after the Anglo-Irish Treaty recognised Irish secession, but a month before the new Irish Free State officially came into existence. Even though they were still recognised as being UK territory for three weeks, the Free State constituencies did not elect MPs and ceased to exist. The south of Ireland had already seceded de facto, with its own courts, parliament, etc., and abstentionist republicans held almost all the seats of the future Free State in the House of Commons. So an election would have been an utter farce.

In contrast, Scotland has not yet established its own republican courts, revolutionary provisional parliament, etc., and any negotiation about a positive election result in September 2014 will last longer than May 2015 plus three weeks, so I don't think the Irish case will be a precedent for excluding Scottish MPs.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #246 on: April 21, 2014, 01:49:35 PM »

The real constitutional crisis would come if we have EdM elected in 2015 with a 40ish seat lead...
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afleitch
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« Reply #247 on: April 21, 2014, 02:07:28 PM »

The real constitutional crisis would come if we have EdM elected in 2015 with a 40ish seat lead...

I have a feeling that in the event of independence the SNP's electoral strength at Holyrood would be replicated at Westminster. In other words if Scottish MP's would be involved in getting a good deal for Scotland before independence I doubt voters would be fussed about the Labour v Tory battle down south given that it wouldn't matter anymore. I could see strongly Labour areas at Westminster (and SNP areas at Holyrood) voting in SNP MP's in fairly large numbers. I don't see the Tories standing anyone there at all.
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EPG
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« Reply #248 on: April 21, 2014, 02:20:22 PM »

In turn, the Conservatives would ditch Cameron and the Lib Dems, initiate an early election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, and run on an English nationalist, hardline-negotiator platform. If the economy keeps doing well, who's to say how big a majority they could get by bashing Salmond, Scottish Labour and the two Eds?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #249 on: April 21, 2014, 03:15:34 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2014, 03:18:44 PM by You kip if you want to... »

In turn, the Conservatives would ditch Cameron and the Lib Dems, initiate an early election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, and run on an English nationalist, hardline-negotiator platform. If the economy keeps doing well, who's to say how big a majority they could get by bashing Salmond, Scottish Labour and the two Eds?

I highly doubt it'll be Scottish Labour or the Eds who'll be blamed if Scotland goes.

If anything, it'd just hit home the message that the Tories are for some people, but not others and are only willing to govern for certain people in certain parts of the country. A country of 5 million people is openly considering burning their bridges with their 300 year old union in no small part because they're not happy with (and have felt victimised by) the Conservative Party.
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