Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[YL]

Anyone watching the debate?

[afleitch]

Anyone watching the debate?

I'm interacting with the television

[Oakvale]

I'm struggling to think if there's ever been anything more cringeworthy than the pro-union side rolling out rafts of D-list celebrities to say "please stay we love you". It might be the most nauseating thing I've ever seen.

[Phony Moderate]

Funny how celebrities here, when they publicly voice their views, often endorse right-leaning causes. Remember those numpties who threatened to flee the country in 1997?

That said, there are actually a few in this batch that I like. Sad.

[bore]

I'm fairly certain that most celebrities are left wingers, or at least liberals.

Also, I don't really think independence can be broken up as a left and right issue.

Besides, weren't most of the 1997 bunch utter nonentities?

[Phony Moderate]

Maybe, but the ones who express their opinions are often right-wing. More so than in the U.S., anyway.

The Better Together campaign is certainly one of the most conservative campaigns in recent history. Its main narrative appears to be 'Let's not break-up our precious 300-year union....oh and its not economically viable". Very little about making the United Kingdom a better, more just place, despite the fact that Scotland is a centre-left country. If Better Together had run a campaign that reflected Scotland's values and ideals, they could have achieved a 70-30 victory. As it is, 60-40 is probably the best that they can hope for.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nah, the correct strategy in referendums of this sort is always to encourage people to go 'ooh... er... is that such a good idea, really?'. You want to encourage as many people as possible to be uncertain; people who are uncertain tend to vote against change. It's better than crude fearmongering (tried for a while in this campaign to hilariously little effect) and there's no point in this 'positive vision' nonsense.

[Oakvale]

From a disinterested perspective (and purely in terms of how ill the two methods make my feel) I prefer some good old fashioned fearmongering to "we love you Scotland! Britain!!!!" pleading.

[afleitch]

It's just cringey actually. Celebrity endorsements are probably as off putting as endorsements from business leaders.

On the issue of the debate, I've actually been pleasantly surprised that the public perception doesn't seem to be what the papers say (quelle suprise). Note; I work in a 'youreallgoingtolooseyourjobs' civil service department. Salmond may have mishandled the pound question (though his answer is technically correct) but Darling didn't confirm what powers would come in the event of a no vote or concede Scotland could be a successful nation. I was surprised by how much that came up the day after. I doubt it will move the polls.

[bore]

For those who don't know, this is the link everyone is talking about.

[afleitch]

For those who don't know, this is the link everyone is talking about.

Quite an interesting reflection on the psyche of 'entitlement' from some corners of the UK. It's like telling a woman who filed for divorce that because the husband doesn't want her to go he should be able to stop her.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

For those who don't know, this is the link everyone is talking about.

Quite an interesting reflection on the psyche of 'entitlement' from some corners of the UK. It's like telling a woman who filed for divorce that because the husband doesn't want her to go he should be able to stop her.

Is it? They're clearly saying in that letter that the choice is Scotland's and Scotland's alone, so they're not really professing any entitled right to force Scotland to stay in the union, as far as I read it. 

Not to mention that I'm pretty sure a lot of husbands in your described scenario has asked their spouse to reconsider their decision to file for divorce, and it's not even like Scotland has even decided they want a divorce yet. So I don't really see the metaphor.     

[Simfan34]

A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.

[You kip if you want to...]

A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.

Aha.

Salmond would be shouting from the rooftops about this at the tiniest sniff of evidence.

[Keystone Phil]

A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.

Aha.

Salmond would be shouting from the rooftops about this at the tiniest sniff of evidence.

It's part of the September Surprise.

[joevsimp]

A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.

Aha.

Salmond would be shouting from the rooftops about this at the tiniest sniff of evidence.

you mean repeatedly typing the word TRILLION in all caps doesn't count as evidence?

[afleitch]

Two new polls. No still led, but gap down despite the Yes campaign being 'finished' last week.

52-48
55-45

There is a rule in Scottish politics. As tempting as it is, don't make an election about Alex Salmond.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even with the gap narrowing that graphic implies to me there's not enough time left thankfully. And this is probably the sort of thing where all last minute people who make up their minds will go with "No". I'm feeling pretty pleasantly confident about this now.

[bore]

I guess that graph is perfect proof that if you want to show a trend in polling you need to use the same company.

[bore]

Two new polls. No still led, but gap down despite the Yes campaign being 'finished' last week.

52-48
55-45

There is a rule in Scottish politics. As tempting as it is, don't make an election about Alex Salmond.

Obviously that's with the undecided voters taken out. Here is the 55-45 one. I can't find the 52-48 one.

The interesting thing about the scotsman one is that both sides increased their percentage- The undecideds dropped by 7% BT gained 2% and YS gained by 4% (rounding, presumably).

[YL]

The 52-48 was Panelbase (actually No 46 Yes 42 Don't Know 12).  Panelbase generally give the best figures for Yes.

Yesterday YouGov released a poll saying No 51 Yes 38 Don't Know 11.  Though this doesn't look good for Yes compared with the other polls, it's actually the best figure YouGov has ever given them.

[Oakvale]

Even with the gap narrowing that graphic implies to me there's not enough time left thankfully. And this is probably the sort of thing where all last minute people who make up their minds will go with "No". I'm feeling pretty pleasantly confident about this now.

Why do you want Scotland to vote No?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The most notable feature of polling so far has been stability. Yes percentages - and remember that in referendum polling it is normally the case that the Yes percentage is the key figure - for the five most recent polls of all the firms surveying the referendum regularly:

YouGov: 38, 35, 35, 36, 37
Panelbase: 42, 41, 43, 40, 40
ICM: 38, 34, 36, 34, 39
Survation: 37, 40, 41, 39, 37
TNS: 32, 32, 32, 30, 30

MORI have also been polling but not so frequently.

[swl]

From a EU point a view (and in general from any third-party perspective), a 'No' would be of course a much better result.
Both options seems quite good for Scottish people, so better avoid the massive headaches and uncertainties that would result from a 'Yes' vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So seems like the No is headed to a 60/40 win. While I think this would probably be the right choice for Scotland, I must say I'm a bit disappointed, because a secession would have been really fun.