Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Lurker]

So, could this make it close after all - or was the "no" lead too large?

[MaxQue]

Afleitch, could you edit the title so the full date is in the title please?

[Tender Branson]

A new Daily Mail poll has the "Yes" side gaining after the debate:



But a look into the internals show that old Scots back the union with 60-40 and 90-92% of olds are "certain" to turn out in the referendum, compared to only 70-85% of younger Scots, who like to back Independence more.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Unlike some Australians who needed to keep their mouths shut... I don't have a strong view on this.

But I think this goes down 55-45... my gut feel is that people who are undecided now and vote will likely side with the status quo.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

edit by el caudillo: please post in English

#WhyImVotingUKIP

Thes threid obvioosly needed a post in scots tae liven things up.

[afleitch]

There was the first debate. The snap ICM poll of debate viewers showed no change in voting intention but suggested Darling had won the debate. Survation however came out with a larger No lead than it's previous poll. Cue 'Salmond finished' headlines for the next 10 days. YouGov said there was little change and then two polls said that Yes had closed the gap. Then came the second debate. Snap ICM poll showed no change in voting intention but suggested that Salmond had won the debate. Survation then came out with a poll showing that Yes had narrowed the gap, even though this was them reverting to the previous levels of support...

And so it continues.

The problem for the pollsters is this.

1. They are polling Scotland.
2. They are polling a referendum.
3. They are used to weighing by voting intention but can't decide by which election on which to do so.
4. They are having to adjust for men/women.
5. They are having to adjust for how many 'English' born are in Scotland because they are disproportionate No voters except in some samples where they are not.
6. They don't know what the turnout is going to be because the polls suggest it might be the highest in two generations yet experience would suggest something high, but more modest
7. They don't know who is more likely to turnout if the turnout is high or low
8. If they get it wrong and get red faces, it's not as if they are going to be faced with polling the same issue again.

[You kip if you want to...]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

[afleitch]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Which is why they will never let you see this;

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/fife/margo-macdonald-and-jim-sillars-the-target-of-vile-attack-in-fife-1.513018

Because eggs is eggs...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Impossible to watch as someone lodged a copyright claim on it.

[bore]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Impossible to watch as someone lodged a copyright claim on it.

I can not be the only one to appreciate the irony of Ernest complaining about the zealous implementation of copyright law.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Impossible to watch as someone lodged a copyright claim on it.

I can not be the only one to appreciate the irony of Ernest complaining about the zealous implementation of copyright law.

I wasn't complaining so much as ... okay, you got me, tho I will point out that the last few moderations I've done for copyright were because someone else reported the infringement.

[Lurker]

Celtic must win today. Independence depends on it.

Their only remaining chance now is Andy Murray winning the US open.

[afleitch]

Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

[Lurker]

Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

I bet both Cameron and Miliband are pretty nervous right now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes percentage when 'don't knows' are included is 42%, which is four points higher than the last YouGov poll.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

I bet both Cameron and Miliband are pretty nervous right now.

Not really. They're still ahead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's true, of course. But nevertheless there is now reason to believe that the Yes campaign has some momentum, which hasn't really been the case before now (except in a slow treacly sense).

[Lurker]

change08: Yes, I can obviously see that they are still in the lead. But this still shows a pretty massive shift from previous YouGov polls. It's clear which side has the momentum at the moment.

How reliable is YouGov, btw? And is there any type of poll aggregator site for this referendum? Couldn't find any good ones (though I didn't look very hard for it).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How reliable is YouGov, btw?

Decent for a British polling firm, but then no British polling firm is exactly great. This is also true of ICM and of MORI. Most of the other firms who've polled the referendum are basically dreck.

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You could do worse than wikipedia's page on it.

[Keystone Phil]

Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

[Lurker]

Thanks, Al!

Looking at the Wikipedia page, there has been surprisingly few polls in the last few weeks, particularly considering the importance of this vote. Will be very interesting to see what the next ICM poll shows.

[swl]

This is getting interesting.

[afleitch]

That's true, of course. But nevertheless there is now reason to believe that the Yes campaign has some momentum, which hasn't really been the case before now (except in a slow treacly sense).

While I (have to) expect a No victory, I've been very surprised at how unfocused the No campaign is at the moment; there's a hint of perhaps misplaced desperation that is starting to seep into the public consensus. From the start, I don't think that No expected it would have to even try. Now that it just might have to, it's not sure what to say.

I think the key this time round are non voters and Labour voters. In 2011 Labour thought it would win and towards the end of the campaign thought it would loose but not by much of a larger margin than in 2007. It's vote held up in the 'swing' areas it was canvassing but collapsed in areas where it took it's vote for granted. It's very difficult to canvass for a referendum such as this but from what I've been aware of, No (who are fairly thin on the ground) are targeting areas that are 'swing' areas politically at the GE/Holyrood. I'm not entirely sure I see the logic in doing that.

If the polls move towards 50/50 and are in any way close to the mark, then it will all depend on who get's their supporters out to vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

While I (have to) expect a No victory, I've been very surprised at how unfocused the No campaign is at the moment; there's a hint of perhaps misplaced desperation that is starting to seep into the public consensus. From the start, I don't think that No expected it would have to even try. Now that it just might have to, it's not sure what to say.

I suspect that one issue is that no one has really agreed on what the message ought to be, which means they're left without having much of one (which still ought to be enough, of course).

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Would assume they'll all turn out anyway. If it does end up being genuinely close then it may come down to the people who don't normally vote.

[bore]

As afleitch alluded to a while back, the problem with polling here is we're in uncharted waters, so there's really no way of knowing, except in a very general sense, what's happening.