Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Simfan34]

I cannot help but feel but that this "Yesmentum" shares a common origin with "Cleggmania"- and they will result in a similar effect in the actual result; that is to say, none. But it is just a feeling.

[Knives]

The prospect of an independent Scotland is quite exciting.

[bore]

Yes Scotland have just informed me, via a newspaper that came through the door, that the person who plays a GP in River City, Taggart and Michael Stewart are voting yes. I'm now convinced.

It's been a while since we had anything from better together, though.

[Phony Moderate]

Apparently a polling organization is about to release a Yes lead...but which polling organization it is is quite important.

[Lurker]

Does anyone have an explanation as to why the polls have shifted so dramatically in the last few weeks (at least if we go by YouGov polling)? Why did the "no"lead start to sink just now?Surely the Salmond-Darling debates can't have been such a big factor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think YouGov changed some of their polling method or something (could be wrong), but this sort of polling volatility isn't really that unusual for an electoral event in Britain. Campaign events often leads to significant poll shifts, though they aren't always 'real' (c.f. all of the various Liberal surges since 1974).

[afleitch]

I think YouGov changed some of their polling method or something (could be wrong), but this sort of polling volatility isn't really that unusual for an electoral event in Britain. Campaign events often leads to significant poll shifts, though they aren't always 'real' (c.f. all of the various Liberal surges since 1974).

YouGov changed it's methodology I think two or three polls ago. It wasn't polling 17 year olds and was not applying a weighting for people not born in Scotland.

It's impossible to tell whether the debate or any other campaign event has had any impact on the polls. They were narrowing prior to Debate 1. There were six polls post debate with the last three showing movement towards Yes after the immediate impact of the debate. Since Debate 2 there has only been two polls with some movement towards yet. So we can't really say anything yet; it might just be a gradual movement.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Knew you'd know

[YL]

Apparently a polling organization is about to release a Yes lead...but which polling organization it is is quite important.

The rumour (at least the one I saw) related to Panelbase, but I still haven't seen any evidence of the actual poll.  It was supposedly going to be published in today's Daily Record (which is being guest edited by Alex Salmond; Darling did yesterday's).

[afleitch]

It's Panelbase. Yougov polled at the same time and that's out at the weekend. Panelbase is probably being held back to be released the same day to either compliment or challenge Yougov depending on that result.

Miliband dropped by my home turf yesterday.

[Zanas]

Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

[afleitch]

Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

Every polling firm is messing with their adjustments with each new poll. That's what happens when the picture becomes clearing in the final few weeks of an election...or less clear.

[Zanas]

Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

Every polling firm is messing with their adjustments with each new poll. That's what happens when the picture becomes clearing in the final few weeks of an election...or less clear.

That... was a rhetorical question. You know.

[afleitch]

Yougov have Yes leading by 1.

[Lurker]

Yougov have Yes leading by 1.

That is terrible news for Ed Miliband.





(And for once the meme proves completely true!)

[ilikeverin]

Yougov have Yes leading by 1.

I'm seeing 51-49.

More reliable link.

[Lurker]

This is utterly ridiculous. A 24 (!) point swing, in less than a month.

By this pace, the Scots will vote for independence in a landslide. This turn of events is quite stunning - two weeks ago, no one would have given the "yes" side a serious chance (other than hacks ), now they're in the lead.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh wow.

[Keystone Phil]

[Oakvale]

Imagine I'm posting a billion Ron Paul gifs here.

[JerryArkansas]

Yes yes yes.  My brethren will hopefully throw off the shackles of the British.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Christ I'm going to lose a bet

[afleitch]

Cameron is flying north to Balmoral for talks with the Queen. Miliband ever the opportunist who love bombed my home town last week has given an interview with the Mail saying he might station guards at the border in the event of independence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Figures with undecideds included: Yes 47%, No 45%

We also have a Panelbase poll: No 48%, Yes 44% (52/48).

Was the data from the two companies accidentally swapped?

[Boris]

Lol @ Better Together. Looks like referendum night is going to be a really fun time!