Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Talk about a change of fortune! I assumed that the No campaign would only continue to gain strength after the poll that showed such a huge lead. How did Better Together mess this up?

[Mr. Morden]

Can I ask a stupid question?  What is the current party breakdown of Scottish seats in the UK Parliament?  Couldn't find that info on Wiki.  If the referendum passes, but independence doesn't take effect until 2016, then I suppose it's mathematically possible, if unlikely, that Labour wins the 2015 general election, but then loses its majority in 2016, once Scotland is no longer represented in the UK Parliament?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour 40, LDem 11, SNP 6, Con 1, Ind Labour (elected as Labour) 1

[JerryArkansas]

The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland. 

[Mr. Morden]

The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland. 

But don't they legally have to hold the next election within five years of the previous one (meaning 2015)?

[politicus]

The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland.  

Given that the total number of seats would go down with 59, that would still be a Labour majority after Scotlands secession.

[DL]

As a Canadian who has lived through a couple of referenda on independence in Quebec, allow me to predict what IMHO will happen.

I predict this will be like what happened in 1995 where at first everyone assumed the NO side would win easily, then the NO campaign ended up floundering and the Yes side captured people's imaginations with all this "Oui et tout sera possible!" (Yes and everything is possible)...in other words come with us abroad this spaceship for an exciting adventure into the unknown.

10 days before the referendum some shocking polls came out showing that Yes was ahead and had all the momentum etc...but in the end people who made up their minds at the very last minute got scared by the fact that voting Yes would literally pull the pin out of the grenade and they almost all went NO at the last minute...also there is a phenomemon in Quebec of the "shy federalist"...its kind of "uncool" to support the status quo in Quebec and so a lot of No voters would fib to pollsters. Anyways, despite final polls showing Yes ahead by as much as 5 or 6 points - the No side won 50.4 to 49.6

FWIW journalist Chantal Hebert has just put out a book "The Morning After" about what would have happened if the Yes side had won...its clear that the Yes leaders were very divided amongst themselves and that no one knew what the  they were going to if they won.

I predict that when all is said and done the No side will win by a 2 or 3 points

[JerryArkansas]

The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland. 

But don't they legally have to hold the next election within five years of the previous one (meaning 2015)?

My understanding of the law is horrible, but I belive if a national emergency were to occur, he could delay it.

The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland. 

Given that the total number of seats would go down with 59, that would still be a Labour majority after Scotlands secession.

I could see that happening, but it would be not desirable to have your majority slashed like that only after a year.

Edit, read the law, he could delay it, but only by a few months, to maybe June or July.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That would be tantamount to a coup.

[DL]

FYI, there was no national election in the UK between 1935 and 1945 due to WW2, BUT during the war a National Government was formed with Labour cabinet ministers along side Tories

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are certainly some parallels, DL. At least the campaign has not been as bitter as that in Quebec. Interesting post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FYI, there was no national election in the UK between 1935 and 1945 due to WW2, BUT during the war a National Government was formed with Labour cabinet ministers along side Tories

And there was literally the prospect of invasion and military occupation by a genocidal dictatorship.

[politicus]

As a Canadian who has lived through a couple of referenda on independence in Quebec, allow me to predict what IMHO will happen.

I predict this will be like what happened in 1995 where at first everyone assumed the NO side would win easily, then the NO campaign ended up floundering and the Yes side captured people's imaginations with all this "Oui et tout sera possible!" (Yes and everything is possible)...in other words come with us abroad this spaceship for an exciting adventure into the unknown.

10 days before the referendum some shocking polls came out showing that Yes was ahead and had all the momentum etc...but in the end people who made up their minds at the very last minute got scared by the fact that voting Yes would literally pull the pin out of the grenade and they almost all went NO at the last minute...also there is a phenomenon in Quebec of the "shy federalist"...its kind of "uncool" to support the status quo in Quebec and so a lot of No voters would fib to pollsters. Anyways, despite final polls showing Yes ahead by as much as 5 or 6 points - the No side won 50.4 to 49.6

I think the EU makes a difference. It makes it significantly less risky for Scotland to separate. Also I doubt there are as many shy unionists as shy federalists. Its hardly uncool to be unionist.

[DL]

There are certainly some parallels, DL. At least the campaign has not been as bitter as that in Quebec. Interesting post.

It helps that you don't have 80% of Scots speaking Gaelic at home and demanding linguistic protections etc...

[DL]

I think the EU makes a difference. It makes it significantly less risky for Scotland to separate. Also I doubt there are as many shy unionists as shy federalists. Its hardly uncool to be unionist.

First of all, aren't there all kinds of questions about Scotland having to join the EU as a new member? In '95 people were told that Quebec would still have free trade with the US and use the Canadian dollar...the point is that No = safety and Yes = uncharted territory and if there is one thing we have learned from polling throughout the western world in recent years its that final polls tend to underestimate support for the status quo (ie: incumbent government or No in any referendum)...look at how much better Labour did compared to what the final polls said in 2010.

Anyways, i could be wrong but i predict No will do a bit better than the final polls and win by a few points.

[politicus]

I think the EU makes a difference. It makes it significantly less risky for Scotland to separate. Also I doubt there are as many shy unionists as shy federalists. Its hardly uncool to be unionist.

First of all, aren't there all kinds of questions about Scotland having to join the EU as a new member? In '95 people were told that Quebec would still have free trade with the US and use the Canadian dollar...the point is that No = safety and Yes = uncharted territory and if there is one thing we have learned from polling throughout the western world in recent years its that final polls tend to underestimate support for the status quo (ie: incumbent government or No in any referendum)...look at how much better Labour did compared to what the final polls said in 2010.

Anyways, i could be wrong but i predict No will do a bit better than the final polls and win by a few points.

I think that the effect will - rather obviously - be there, but it will be smaller than in Quebec. If the yes side gets a 4% lead (and that's far from impossible now that they have momentum), I think that's enough.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/508353366154833922/photo/1

Latest YouGov poll has Yes ahead by 2%. Wow.  On the other hand I am pretty sure No will win, even if by a small margin.

[politicus]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/508353366154833922/photo/1

Latest YouGov poll has Yes ahead by 2%. Wow.  On the other hand I am pretty sure No will win, even if by a small margin.

Old news around here.

[DL]

I think that the effect will - rather obviously - be there, but it will be smaller than in Quebec. If the yes side gets a 4% lead (and that's far from impossible now that they have momentum), I think that's enough.

First of all we have ONE poll showing Yes ahead by 2% and another with No ahead by 4%...and "momentum" is a bit of a myth. I have been polling and observing elections/referenda for the last 35 years and for all the talk about momentum and "jumping on a bandwagon" - more often than not when polls show one side surging ahead, the public often has second thoughts and backs away and whoever seemed to have this so-called "momentum" ends up doing a bit worse than predicted when the votes are counted. No one could possibly have LESS "momentum" than Gordon Brown in 2010 and yet look at how much better he did than the final polls all projected...and look at how all of Nick Clegg's momentum turned out to be a wet firecracker the moment the exit polls were announced.

[politicus]

I think that the effect will - rather obviously - be there, but it will be smaller than in Quebec. If the yes side gets a 4% lead (and that's far from impossible now that they have momentum), I think that's enough.

First of all we have ONE poll showing Yes ahead by 2% and another with No ahead by 4%...and "momentum" is a bit of a myth. I have been polling and observing elections/referenda for the last 35 years and for all the talk about momentum and "jumping on a bandwagon" - more often than not when polls show one side surging ahead, the public often has second thoughts and backs away and whoever seemed to have this so-called "momentum" ends up doing a bit worse than predicted when the votes are counted. No one could possibly have LESS "momentum" than Gordon Brown in 2010 and yet look at how much better he did than the final polls all projected...and look at how all of Nick Clegg's momentum turned out to be a wet firecracker the moment the exit polls were announced.

Sure momentum is overrated, but it does work sometimes. That wasn't really central to my point. I just said it was quite possible for no to get a 4% lead in the polls and that will IMO be enough in the Scottish case because the two effects you mentioned - uncertainty and "shyness" -  will be smaller than in Quebec. We will see if yes increases enough to make this truly interesting.

[Angel of Death]

Possibly dumb speculative question, but how much could this latest development possibly be due to anti-UKIP backlash?

[YL]

Possibly dumb speculative question, but how much could this latest development possibly be due to anti-UKIP backlash?

It might just be to do with the quirks of YouGov's algorithms.

Personally, if I lived in Scotland the threat of UKIP, their influence on the Tories and the possibility of the UK leaving the EU would indeed be an argument in favour of "Yes".  So I suppose it might be helping the Yes side a bit, but I doubt it's a major factor.

[Simfan34]

This too shall pass.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks to be extremely high as well.

On a scale of 0-10, more than 90% (!!!) say that they are a 10 (certain) to vote.

Usually, the "certain" number is pretty much the actual turnout on election day.

I also hope that Scotland has a fail-proof vote counting system in place for election day, in the event that the vote is going to be extremely close.

I don't want a Scottish "Florida-2000" ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, Yougov is a weird pollster and a 2 point margin is statistically equivalent to a tie. We're gonna need to see more polls like that before saying it's happening.