Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Tender Branson]

I'd also like to see Scotland beat Germany tonight in the first quali game for the EURO 2016.

[Phony Moderate]

Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

[bore]

Bloody hell. Obvious caveats about polling, especially in this race, but still. Blood hell

Oh, and among my friends it is uncool to be a unionist, although that's also true to a lesser extent of enthusiastic yes voters (the sort who filibuster facebook) as well.

[Simfan34]

Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

Are they trying to split the country?

[Keystone Phil]

Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

Are they trying to split the country?

I think they're trying to report the news. Which is kind of, you know, their duty.

[Simfan34]

Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

Are they trying to split the country?

I think they're trying to report the news. Which is kind of, you know, their duty.

They needn't be hysterical about it.

[Keystone Phil]

Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

Are they trying to split the country?

I think they're trying to report the news. Which is kind of, you know, their duty.

They needn't be hysterical about it.

So a part of the Union finally and completely splitting off should be reported with what exactly? Yesterday's Cricket results?

[Thomas D]

Hi, I know I'm late to the party. So if this has already been addressed I'm sorry.

If this passes what impact would it have on the 2015 election?

Is there one party that would be especially hurt if Scotland broke away? 

[Unimog]

Labour and LibDem would be hurt, and the SNP damaged badly....

[politicus]

Labour and LibDem would be hurt, and the SNP damaged badly....

Since the break would only become effectual in 2016 SNP would likely have a good election, if they decided to participate at all..

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't forget "yes" was winning right before the Quebec referendum too.

[DL]

Don't forget "yes" was winning right before the Quebec referendum too.

...and not just by 2% in one poll that could be an outlier - a whole series of polls had Yes well ahead in Quebec in 1995

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995#Opinion_polling

[politicus]

Don't forget "yes" was winning right before the Quebec referendum too.

Yeah, we discussed it earlier in the thread. The question is if the underpolling ("shy unionist") and unionism being the default option (voting safe when you are in the booth) are as strong as they were in Quebec. I tend to say no to both. "No" will do better than the polls, but no Quebec 1995-style better. But its obvious that "yes" will need a solid lead in the end to actually win. My bid is that a 4% lead will be enough.

[afleitch]

There are some of my favourite Daily Mail headlines from today.

'Alex Salmond's secretive Saltire-smuggling First Lady (...who is 17 years his senior)' (not mentioned, Alex being 'really fat')

'Why a divorce from Scotland could be the ruin of us all: Mortgages up. Pensions down. The pound in your pocket worth 90p - and you'll even pay more for water' (but how will it affect house prices?)

and my favourite;

'Revealed: The German residents who will vote 'Ja' to Scottish independence (including one Herr Mittler)'

So when is the 'love bomb' happening?

[Tender Branson]

A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

[DL]

A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

It has fallen dramatically in recent years and now only about 30-35% would vote Yes in another referendum. The pro-independence Bloc Quebecois was annhilated in the last federal election going from 50 out of 75 Quebec seats in Ottawa to just 4...and then the PQ was crushed in the provincial election election this spring largely because people were afraid they would call another referendum. Its always risky to say "separatism is dead", but the conventional wisdom is that the whole Quebec independence movement is now on life support and is only a past time of an age cohort of baby boomers who associate with with their glory days in the 1970s.

[politicus]

Good article on the reasons "yes" is gaining with focus on SNP neutralising "the fear factor", especially among Labour-supporters.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scottish-independence-no-vote-alex-salmond-second-referendum

[CJK]

It is interesting to me how much traction this is getting considering just how loyal Scotland has historically been to England. Scotland has always contributed disproportionate troops in British wars, including the American Revolution.

[EPG]

So did Ireland... The explanation is to follow the money. Both countries had large classes of rich landowners (officers) and landless peasants (privates).

[Zanas]

This whole thing reminds me of our 2005 European Constitution referendum, only the outsider camp's lead (the NO in our case) came in quite a bit earlier. Even so, if three other polls show the Yes with more than a 2-pt lead before election day, I will believe in secession. Otherwise, it's still Lean No structurally.

Oh and momentum do exist. It's not a guaranteed thing, but in the mentioned example of France 2005, or more recently Canada 2011, polling had a great influence on the final results, IMO. This might just be another occurrence of this.

[politicus]

It is interesting to me how much traction this is getting considering just how loyal Scotland has historically been to England. Scotland has always contributed disproportionate troops in British wars, including the American Revolution.

Empire is a keyword here.

Scotland joined the union in 1707 to get a share in the empire and contributed disproportionally to the expansion and running of the empire in almost any field (soldiers, missionaries, engineers,   trappers, sailors etc.) and benefitted a lot from the imperial economy . After the dissolution of the empire it became much less obvious why Scotland should be in union with England.

[Tender Branson]

If anything here comes close to the Scottish situation right now, it would be the 1978 Austrian referendum on the Nuclear Power Plant Zwentendorf, with polls showing voters supported the NPP by a 2:1 margin when the campaign started.

In the end (with the plant already built and about to be started), the voters rejected it by a 50.5-49.5 margin, a stunning defeat for Chancellor Kreisky (a Socialist). Kreisky, a year later, won the biggest landslide for the Socialist party with 51%, something which has never been achieved ...

[Hatman 🍁]

A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

It has fallen dramatically in recent years and now only about 30-35% would vote Yes in another referendum. The pro-independence Bloc Quebecois was annhilated in the last federal election going from 50 out of 75 Quebec seats in Ottawa to just 4...and then the PQ was crushed in the provincial election election this spring largely because people were afraid they would call another referendum. Its always risky to say "separatism is dead", but the conventional wisdom is that the whole Quebec independence movement is now on life support and is only a past time of an age cohort of baby boomers who associate with with their glory days in the 1970s.

Separatism was supposedly dead at certain points in the early 1990s as well.

One huge difference between the Scottish and Quebec referendums is the question wording. The Scottish wording is very direct, and makes independence clear. Quebec's question was very vague and convoluted.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Scotland is very different to Quebec. For a start, there's no language issue (and so no really obvious large 95%-No-voting demographic).

[ilikeverin]

A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

It has fallen dramatically in recent years and now only about 30-35% would vote Yes in another referendum. The pro-independence Bloc Quebecois was annhilated in the last federal election going from 50 out of 75 Quebec seats in Ottawa to just 4...and then the PQ was crushed in the provincial election election this spring largely because people were afraid they would call another referendum. Its always risky to say "separatism is dead", but the conventional wisdom is that the whole Quebec independence movement is now on life support and is only a past time of an age cohort of baby boomers who associate with with their glory days in the 1970s.

Separatism was supposedly dead at certain points in the early 1990s as well.

One huge difference between the Scottish and Quebec referendums is the question wording. The Scottish wording is very direct, and makes independence clear. Quebec's question was very vague and convoluted.

Oh, I'm sure it wasn't too—

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