Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The September-surprise:

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http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

I despise the royal family in every way imaginable.

[Cassius]

The September-surprise:

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http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

Yeah, this is actually insulting now. I hope there is massive backlash.

Oh come on, there's three lines about it expressing a not that unreasonable viewpoint. Over the next couple of days, its likely that this news will briefly overshadow the current furore over the referendum (and possibly give 'no' a small breathing space).

[Keystone Phil]

The September-surprise:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

Yeah, this is actually insulting now. I hope there is massive backlash.

Oh come on, there's three lines about it expressing a not that unreasonable viewpoint. Over the next couple of days, its likely that this news will briefly overshadow the current furore over the referendum (and possibly give 'no' a small breathing space).

...I'm saying that the decision to announce by the Royal Family is shameful because we know the motive behind the timing. You know the timing of this stuff is so thoroughly planned and it's no coincidence that it comes just over a week before the vote.

[Simfan34]

Shut up, the two of you.

Also realize Scotland would keep the monarchy even if they voted for independence.

[Knives]

Really crass of the royals, she hasn't even passed 12 weeks.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I love it when people see conspiracies everywhere. Of course Kate and William thouroughly planned their sex-life to have a new baby on the way just a week before the referendum to make sure that their future United Kingdom stays united. There can be no ther logicall explination, especially considering the fact that Scotland will keep the monarchy no matter what.    

[ObserverIE]

I love it when people see conspiracies everywhere. Of course Kate and William thouroughly planned their sex-life to have a new baby on the way just a week before the referendum to make sure that their future United Kingdom stays united. There can be no ther logicall explination, especially considering the fact that Scotland will keep the monarchy no matter what.  

"Lie back and think of England", as the old cliche goes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Considering that none of you are Scottish there is perhaps such a thing as being too invested?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Considering that none of you are Scottish there is perhaps such a thing as being too invested?

We all watched Braveheart and we obviously want Payback for what they did to Mel Gibson.

[Oakvale]

The September-surprise:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

Yeah, this is actually insulting now. I hope there is massive backlash.

Oh come on, there's three lines about it expressing a not that unreasonable viewpoint. Over the next couple of days, its likely that this news will briefly overshadow the current furore over the referendum (and possibly give 'no' a small breathing space).

...I'm saying that the decision to announce by the Royal Family is shameful because we know the motive behind the timing. You know the timing of this stuff is so thoroughly planned and it's no coincidence that it comes just over a week before the vote.

Yes, this. Laughable really.

[Phony Moderate]

So Brown seems to be taking over Better Together. Not sure that's a good idea from their POV; the SNP majority in 2011, as afleitch pointed out some time ago, was a delayed reaction to the Brown government.

[afleitch]

TNS, with changes on last poll from them

Yes 50 (+8)
No 50 (-8)

Fieldwork: 27th August to 4 September.

[YL]

That TNS poll has a weirdly high number of undecideds compared with other recent polls: the full figures are No 39 Yes 38 Don't Know 23.

[Lurker]

This is looking pretty damn bad for the "no" side...

[sirius3100]

That TNS poll has a weirdly high number of undecideds compared with other recent polls: the full figures are No 39 Yes 38 Don't Know 23.

Perhaps their methodology is different? They might state that you have 3 options as anwers (Yes/No/Don't Know), while the other pollsters don't mention the don't know option before asking. Or the other pollsters might ask again for a clear yes or no if one initially answers with a don't know.

Or maybe they just group don't know and won't vote together? I can't check the study though at the moment. The page doesn't load for me.

[DC Al Fine]

What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.

Has there been any talk of the electoral system post-independence? Would it essentially be the same as the current Scottish Parliament's elections or something completely different?

[DC Al Fine]

Oh ftr, the two polls done the day before the Quebec referendum both showed the Yes side with a 6 pt lead. In that case, the Yes side barely lost. I think that's a reasonable cutoff IMO. If Yes starts flirting with 5-6% leads, they'll take it.

[politicus]

Oh ftr, the two polls done the day before the Quebec referendum both showed the Yes side with a 6 pt lead. In that case, the Yes side barely lost. I think that's a reasonable cutoff IMO. If Yes starts flirting with 5-6% leads, they'll take it.

This assumes that Quebec and Scotland are identical cases regarding underpolling of unionism/federalism and that the effect of unionism being the default option (voting safe when you are in the booth) is as strong as it was in Quebec. I tend to say no to both. "No" will do better than the polls, but not Quebec 1995-style better.

(forgive me from sounding like a broken record on this, but every Canadian poster seems to argue this point without looking at the previous pages since DL brought it up)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.

I wonder if we'll see a UKIP-esque populist right-wing party grow in Scotland. After all, they do talk about wanting to be like the Scandinavians - what could be more Scandinavian than a raging right-wing group hovering in the background?

[Gary J]

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I have not noticed anything, although I am in southern England so I might not have seen it.

Presumably a yes vote, would be followed by some negotiations over the terms of disunion. The independence constitution might be negotiated during that process, but I would suspect that Scotland would prefer as little interference as possible from the rest of the UK.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats have suggested a constitutional convention, with representatives of all the parties and civil society groups in Scotland. This was modelled on the body which came up with the current devolution arrangements (which notably was boycotted by the SNP). The existing convention proposal is related to changes within the union, but there is no reason why it could not be used to draft an independence constitution if there has been a yes vote on independence.

Such a body would not be likely to make major changes to the existing Scottish Parliament electoral system.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps their methodology is different?

Yes, they do face-to-face interviews.

Recent-to-Recentish TNS polls, today's in bold:

No 39, Yes 38
No 45, Yes 32
No 41, Yes 32
No 46, Yes 32
No 42, Yes 30
No 42, Yes 30
No 41, Yes 29

[Gary J]

I found some material on page 352 of the Scottish government's document about ''Scotland's Future''. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00439021.pdf

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The SNP definitely want the constitution to be wholly made in Scotland. The 'initial constitutional platform' would presumably be drawn up by the existing Scottish Parliament dominated by the SNP. Nothing is said about the electoral system to be used in 2016.

[politicus]

What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.

I wonder if we'll see a UKIP-esque populist right-wing party grow in Scotland. After all, they do talk about wanting to be like the Scandinavians - what could be more Scandinavian than a raging right-wing group hovering in the background?

A Scottish right wing populist party would presumably be more of a DPP/Sweden Democrats type with anti-immigration + law and order being combined with strong support for a welfare state. I fail to see anything UKIP style or even a parallel to the Norwegian Progress Party being successful.

But presumably both euroscepticism and integration problems would need to be larger for this to happen. Scottish Muslims, notably Pakistanis, seems to be relatively well integrated and Islamophobia is the bread and butter of modern rightwing populism in Europe

[Linus Van Pelt]

Can someone explain what the Yes/SNP proposal for the currency is? As far as I can see, there are roughly three senses in which an independent Scotland might "use the pound", and I'm a bit unclear as to which is being proposed:

(1) Scotland uses the pound and shares a joint central bank with the UK that controls the supply of pounds, i.e. a new body like the Monetary Committee of the Bank of England is formed and jointly appointed from Westminster and Holyrood. This is how the Euro works.
(2) Scotland just uses the pound without any such official arrangement with the Bank of England.
(3) Scotland has its own pound but its value is pegged to the pound sterling, as for example the Danish krone is pegged to the Euro.

[Boris]

I don't think #2 is feasible. Would the European Commission even allow Scotland's accession to the EU with a Sweden-esque defacto opt out of ERM II?