Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Survation poll: No 48, Yes 42

_{Figures rounded.}

[Tender Branson]

Brand new poll has NO leading with 53-47 (47.6-42.4-10 with undecideds).

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http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/independence-referendum-exclusive-daily-record-4196976

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All Survation polls taken during the official campaign period, with the new one in bold to avoid confusion:

No 48, Yes 42
No 48, Yes 42
No 50, Yes 37
No 46, Yes 40
No 46, Yes 41
No 44, Yes 39

[Antonio the Sixth]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

[afleitch]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company

[ilikeverin]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company

I made the same assumption, but, no, it doesn't seem to be (note the dates: 5th-9th September).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company

That doesn't mean they are wrong though.

[YL]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Of the last four polls, two (YouGov and TNS) have shown striking moves to Yes, and two (Survation and Panelbase) have shown little or no change on their previous polls.  So what's really going on is a bit of a mystery.  However, all four show either more or less a tie or No narrowly ahead.

According to Anthony Wells (UKPollingReport) there's another YouGov poll coming out for Friday, an ICM poll by the weekend, and probably also another Panelbase poll at the weekend.  These may start to clear things up, or they may not...

[afleitch]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company

That doesn't mean they are wrong though.

But you can't say whether whether support is rising or falling if it's no change on the last poll by the same company. Survation are steady. Panelbase was steady. YouGov saw Yes up, TNS saw yes up. Most polling companies are now starting to iron out methodology, tweak for turnout etc. It's not an easy election to poll. A pollster could call the result wrong but technically be more accurate than a pollster that calls it right, but by too much.

[politicus]

Its 53/47 if you don't include undecideds, that's almost within he margin of error anyway. Its gotta be very close to a tie right now.

[DL]

I'm still convinced that NO will get about 1% more than the average of final polls since people who decide on referendum day will skew towards the status quo...If you haven't made up your mind to vote Yes by the big day - you will likely be a NO

[politicus]

I'm still convinced that NO will get about 1% more than the average of final polls since people who decide on referendum day will skew towards the status quo...If you haven't made up your mind to vote Yes by the big day - you will likely be a NO

At least 1% is almost a given, but that's also a far cry from your Quebec 1995 comparison.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For reference, the difference between the Labour percentage in Scotland and across the whole of the UK since 1945:

1945: -0.1
1950: +0.1
1951: -0.9
1955: +0.3
1959: +2.8
1964: +4.8
1966: +1.7
1970: +1.4
1974: -0.5
1974: -3.0
1979: +4.6
1983: +7.5
1987: +11.6
1992: +4.5
1997: +2.4
2001: +3.2
2005: +4.2
2010: +13.0

[DL]

Is that based on raw Labour vote share or on margin over the Tories because only from the 70s on did Scotland become a 4 party system with the Snp as a factor...we interesting to see that table comparing the Tory vote in Scotland in every election to their UK wide percentage . I read that as recently as the 50s, the Tories actually did a bit BETTER in Scotland than in England

[Brittain33]

If Scotland can't use the £, then what about adopting the U.S. dollar, like Panama or Ecuador? How might that work out?

[politicus]

If Scotland can't use the £, then what about adopting the U.S. dollar, like Panama or Ecuador? How might that work out?

If SNP really are serious about joining the Nordic Council, as they have talked about, another solution would be to establish a currency union between Scotland, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. This would give the Norwegians a much needed devaluation and create a strong currency for the rest of us. It may be slightly too strong for Scotland, but better than using the pound IMO.

[DL]

Denmark is part of the EU, an independent Scotland would want to be and Norway is adamantly not part of the EU - no way you could create a common currency for a mix of country some in and some out of the EU

[Tender Branson]

A total of 4.285.323 people have registered to vote in the Indy referendum.

Scotland does not have automatic voter registration, which means out of a total 4.4 million people aged 16 or more, ca. 97% of all eligible people have registered to vote.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/11/referendum-registered-voters-scotland-four-million-97-per-cent

[politicus]

Denmark is part of the EU, an independent Scotland would want to be and Norway is adamantly not part of the EU - no way you could create a common currency for a mix of country some in and some out of the EU

Why not? The Danish krone is already in use in three countries where only one of them is an EU member. Plus Norway and Iceland are in the EEA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area

[DL]

Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Joshua Rozenberg - law journalist - has a bit of trollish fun

[politicus]

Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

Because the Eurozone is a bit of a disaster.

[swl]

If Scotland leaves the UK we can imagine almost everything. I think the rUK would eventually leave the EU and it would change a lot of things in the EU (for the better in my opinion).

But I am pretty sure they would find an agreement to keep the pound, at least during a transition period.

[Brittain33]

Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.

[politicus]

Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.

While Scotland would need to apply to join the Euro, that is not the reason and their economy would easily meet the requirements for membership. The Euro is simply not an attractive option at the moment.