Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[You kip if you want to...]

Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.

While Scotland would need to apply to join the Euro, that is not the reason and their economy would easily meet the requirements for membership. The Euro is simply not an attractive option at the moment.

Alex Salmond is still a politician and the SNP is still a political party. To even whisper about joining the euro would spell electoral armageddon.

If it was in any way feasible, it would've been one of the first suggestions.

[politicus]

Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.

While Scotland would need to apply to join the Euro, that is not the reason and their economy would easily meet the requirements for membership. The Euro is simply not an attractive option at the moment.

Alex Salmond is still a politician and the SNP is still a political party. To even whisper about joining the euro would spell electoral armageddon.

If it was in any way feasible, it would've been one of the first suggestions.

Well that was my point when I wrote:

Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

Because the Eurozone is a bit of a disaster.

But it got ignored as usual.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ComRes have polled the two local authority areas on the English border:

Dumfries & Galloway: No 67%, Yes 33%
Borders: No 68%, Yes 32%

[politicus]

ComRes have polled the two local authority areas on the English border:

D&G: No 67%, Yes 33%
Borders: No 68%, Yes 32%

That's actually a bit better for Yes than I would have expected.

[joevsimp]

ComRes have polled the two local authority areas on the English border:

D&G: No 67%, Yes 33%
Borders: No 68%, Yes 32%

That's actually a bit better for Yes than I would have expected.

the yes results for those two in 79 and 97 were:
_________79___97parl__97tax
DG:_____40.3%_60.7%__48.8%
borders__40.3%_62.8%__50.7%
scotland_51.6%_74.3%__63.5%

so those two council areas were 10 to 15% lower than average, looks like a narrow no on those figures

[You kip if you want to...]

No back ahead with YouGov

52-48 from 49-51.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No back ahead with YouGov

52-48 from 49-51.

Well, I guess it was fun while it lasted.

[You kip if you want to...]

No back ahead with YouGov

52-48 from 49-51.

Well, I guess it was fun while it lasted.

The one with Yes ahead looks like more of an outlier. The one before that one was 53-47.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Full figures are: No 50, Yes 45, Undecided 6

All YouGov polls since the start of the official campaign period, the new one in bold:

50 45
45 47
48 42
51 38
55 35
54 35
53 36

(No on the left, Yes on the right)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm still sticking with 54-46 No...

[GAworth]

Full figures are: No 50, Yes 45, Undecided 6

All YouGov polls since the start of the official campaign period, the new one in bold:

50 45
45 47
48 42
51 38
55 35
54 35
53 36

(No on the left, Yes on the right)

Equals 101% Silly Pollsters, Math is for kids.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, I thought that looked strange. It's how its entered on the wikipedia article, lol

[Linus Van Pelt]

Well, if the actual result was, say, 49.7, 44.7, 5.6, that adds up to 100.0 but the figures round up to 50, 45, 6. Pollsters sometimes get mocked here for publishing a decimal point beyond the margin of error, so we have to allow them not to add to 100 with rounding.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its the official number on the YouGov website as well.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Its the official number on the YouGov website as well.

Right, but they give the same explanation.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/11/scotland-referendum-no-52-yes-48/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I like the slightly reproachful wording in the brackets.

[njwes]

Has there been any discussion recently of the Shetland and Orkney Islands and Western Isles? I seem to remember earlier in the year some talk that they may look for a third way in the event that they all vote No while Scotland as a whole votes Yes.

Not sure how realistic the ideas were but it was interesting.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?

[politicus]

If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?

Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not.

[bore]

Has there been any discussion recently of the Shetland and Orkney Islands and Western Isles? I seem to remember earlier in the year some talk that they may look for a third way in the event that they all vote No while Scotland as a whole votes Yes.

Not sure how realistic the ideas were but it was interesting.

The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country. Shetland and Orkney will likely be the opposite, and there have been some, probably trollish suggestions about them seceding from Scotland, but I don't think they're being serious.

[afleitch]

ICM

No 51
Yes 49

Without excluded's its

No 42 (-5)
Yes 40 (+2)
DK 17 (+3)

[eric82oslo]

The median of the last 7 polls (August 26-September 11), all conducted after the last debate, show a median No lead of 5%, while the average No lead has been 3.7%. The average of the last 5 polls however has been No +2.8%. And the average of the last three polls has been No +3%. A No victory of anywhere between +2% and +5% is probably the likeliest right now. According to 538, about 20% of the Scottish electorate has already voted early by mail in ballots.

[njwes]

The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country. Shetland and Orkney will likely be the opposite, and there have been some, probably trollish suggestions about them seceding from Scotland, but I don't think they're being serious.

Ah ok gotcha, thanks!

I understand why it seems more like trolling, but I think I agree with Bleeding Heart Conservative. "If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?" To simply say that "Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not" doesn't do it for me; the definition and boundaries of "nations" are nearly always ambiguous and less clear-cut than people imagine them to be.

Given their location and history, is it that hard to believe that many inhabitants of Shetland and Orkney, or the Borders for that matter, feel themselves to be rather different than the Scots of the Edinburgh/Glasgow/Highlands core of Scotland? And that they might feel it deeply wrong that the rest of the "nation" can tear them away from the UK against their will?

[afleitch]

The Zetlanders and Orcadians saying 'no' to independence for Scotland is not the same as saying that in the event of independence that they would wish to remain part of the UK and governed in effect, from London (given than Scotland had left) if that makes sense.

The might not vote for it, but they would go along with it.

[bore]

On the other hand, if they really did want to remain as part of the UK, it would be pretty hard for Shetland and Orkney at least, to be denied that.