Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[politicus]

If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?

Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not.

"Nation" is but a legal definition. The Parliament would be able to create a few, if it so desires.

Rubbish. Nation is a cultural, historical and emotional entity and dividing up long established nations always cause major trouble. In the case of Scotland carving up the territory is simply unrealistic.

The idea that a parliament can create a nation is ludicrous. They can create
(artificial) states, but that's an entirely different kettle of fish.  

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Olds are unionists, while those under 60 have swung big time for independence.

[Cassius]

Olds are unionists, while those under 60 have swung big time for independence.

I think the word 'swung' is important here, as on the chart it can be seen that support for independence has been very volatile amongst the younger age groups, so I don't think its particularly indicative of much commitment to independence on the part of the young.

[politicus]

Still, previous polling has showed that the 35-55 age group is the most pro-independence, so if SNP can get the youngs to support Yes that's crucial. But there is a big if regarding commitment and actually showing up


Old unionists on the other hand will vote, at least the ones under 75. I think it could be important whether the usual phenomenon with the very  old (+75) voting to a lesser degree tham the general population will materialize here. How prevalent will the "I have had my time, and will leave it to my children and grandchildren" effect be - I suspect it will be low in this context, since its a strongly emotional issue.

[YL]

I think if Shetland actually wanted to separate from an independent Scotland and remain in the UK then there would be a case for saying that they were sufficiently geographically and culturally distinct and accepting that.

However, I haven't seen any evidence that this would actually be the case, just a bit of trolling speculation by the No campaign.  It might be more plausible that Shetland would want to be a small independent or semi-independent state in its own right.

As for Dumfriesshire or Roxburghshire, the question is entirely hypothetical: they're very much part of Scotland and will want to stay with it in the event of independence even if they didn't vote for it.

[EPG]

To summarise Sibboleth's explanation, Scotland gets 50%+1 because the British government has implicitly accepted those terms in Scotland and allowed a referendum, whereas the Scottish government has not done so for Shetland.

True. But the Parliament would still have to act to implement the referendum decision. As far as I understand, it has not committed to the exact shape of Scottish independence. It would be, let us say, interesting

I suppose you could put the rump statelets into Northern Ireland...

But, on a more serious note, the wording of the referendum is clear and accepted by both sides and would appear to preclude detachments of parts of Scotland. The UK recognises Scotland as a political entity in a manner that is not true for the Scottish Borders or Shetland. The Canadian federal government may earnestly desire to own northern Québec or it may be trolling, but Westminster doesn't want to commit anything to potential enclaves around Selkirk or Aberdeen, or expensive little island statelets. It would be a pretty brave government that tried to keep Scotland in the union after a Yes vote.

[bore]

Yeah, there is a big difference between wanting Scotland as a whole to stay in the UK, and wanting to stay in the UK even if the rest of Scotland leaves. No one wonders if, say, Obama would have accepted losing in 2012, and the same sort of thing applies here.

If Shetland or Orkney or the Western Isles or hell, maybe even Dumfries really wanted to remain in a rump UK then they probably couldn't be stopped, but the thing is they almost certainly won't want to remain in a rump UK.

[MaxQue]

To summarise Sibboleth's explanation, Scotland gets 50%+1 because the British government has implicitly accepted those terms in Scotland and allowed a referendum, whereas the Scottish government has not done so for Shetland.

True. But the Parliament would still have to act to implement the referendum decision. As far as I understand, it has not committed to the exact shape of Scottish independence. It would be, let us say, interesting

I suppose you could put the rump statelets into Northern Ireland...

But, on a more serious note, the wording of the referendum is clear and accepted by both sides and would appear to preclude detachments of parts of Scotland. The UK recognises Scotland as a political entity in a manner that is not true for the Scottish Borders or Shetland. The Canadian federal government may earnestly desire to own northern Québec or it may be trolling, but Westminster doesn't want to commit anything to potential enclaves around Selkirk or Aberdeen, or expensive little island statelets. It would be a pretty brave government that tried to keep Scotland in the union after a Yes vote.

And I doubt very much than Selkirk or Aberdeen, even if opposed to independence, would prefer to stay in the UK without Scotland.

Wanting Scotland to stay in UK doesn't mean you want than your area splitting from Scotland in case of independence. It might, but, most likely, doesn't.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This has been passing around the Twatter machine, no idea how accurate it is, but is suggestive

[bore]

I have a lecture at 9 o clock on Friday. I'm sure I can handle two hours sleep.

[You kip if you want to...]

"Expected declaration time" is the biggest lie told on election nights.

[politicus]

I think if Shetland actually wanted to separate from an independent Scotland and remain in the UK then there would be a case for saying that they were sufficiently geographically and culturally distinct and accepting that.

However, I haven't seen any evidence that this would actually be the case, just a bit of trolling speculation by the No campaign.  It might be more plausible that Shetland would want to be a small independent or semi-independent state in its own right.

Geographically it is obviously distinct. Culturally I would say, that if you stay longer than the average tourist and get a bit beneath the surface it is not a place that feels culturally distinct from Scotland.
There is history and identity, but little actual difference. In this sense it reminds me of Scania (and that is the only sense in which Scania and Shetlands are similar.. ) .

But as you say, this is all theoretical. They don't want to stay in a rump UK. If anything autonomy within an independent Scotland would make the most sense.

Out of curiosty have you visited Shetland or have relatives there?

[YL]

Survation: No 49 Yes 42 Don't Know 9 (54-46 excluding Don't Knows).

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Better-Together-Voting-Intention-Tables.pdf

(Poll was carried out for the No campaign)

[afleitch]

SNP leader threatens scaremongering business leaders with "day of reckoning".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753279/Scotland-face-10-year-economic-slowdown-independence-warns-business-chief-fresh-blow-Salmond.html

Jim Sillars isn't a member of the SNP

[YL]

Out of curiosty have you visited Shetland or have relatives there?

No, I just picked on it because it's the most geographically distinct (and probably the one most often mentioned by the people who suggest some areas might want to stay in the UK).

[bore]

Relevant.

[politicus]

SNP leader threatens scaremongering business leaders with "day of reckoning".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753279/Scotland-face-10-year-economic-slowdown-independence-warns-business-chief-fresh-blow-Salmond.html

Jim Sillars isn't a member of the SNP

Okay, I see he is a former SNP left winger squeezed out in the early 90s. So its either deliberate manipulation or ignorance when the journalist calls him an "SNP grandee", probably the latter given the source.

So whats Sillars position in the Yes campaign then? (since they have pics of him campaigning with Salmond).

[Keystone Phil]

I found out George Galloway is against independence. As if I didn't feel strongly enough about the Yes campaign...

[Frodo]

It isn't just native Scots who want independence:

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[afleitch]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etKV3uZ-CeE

I'm somewhere at the far right 14 seconds in

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Shetland or Orkney or the Western Isles or hell, maybe even Dumfries really wanted to remain in a rump UK then they probably couldn't be stopped, but the thing is they almost certainly won't want to remain in a rump UK.

Basically. The territorial questions being raised aren't much more than content-free trolling (well, probably). The potential for serious clusterfyckery certainly exists, but over other issues.

[Linus Van Pelt]

This has been passing around the Twatter machine, no idea how accurate it is, but is suggestive

So, does "expected declaration time" mean that each council area will be announced all at once, like the constituencies in Parliamentary elections? Why aren't these times more proportional to population and thus the number of votes to count?

Also, whoever made this seems to differ from much of the forum on question of the Western Isles.

[afleitch]

ICM

Yes 54
No 46

Opinium

No 53
Yes 47

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And we have more polls.

Firstly, ICM have another showing a lead for Yes; 54 to 46. Apparently this was done online (not their usual method) with a smaller than usual sample size and during the same period as the Grauniad/ICM poll published the other day.

And Opium Opinium have a poll showing the opposite picture: 53 No to 47 Yes. Opinium are kind of sketchy.

Don't have the full figures for either, but I'm sure they're out there.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

So, does "expected declaration time" mean that each council area will be announced all at once, like the constituencies in Parliamentary elections?

Yes.

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Some of these councils cover far-flung areas (Highland alone is bigger than some EU countries) and communications can be quite poor.

There was one general election where the result from one of the island constituencies was severely delayed because the helicopter which had been chartered to bring the ballot boxes in from some of the outlying islands had to be used instead to ferry a heavily pregnant woman to hospital in Inverness.

The Edinburgh counting team faces none of these difficulties, but is still notoriously slow.