Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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  Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014  (Read 145579 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #650 on: September 13, 2014, 02:43:19 PM »

So after the polls of just the last couple of days alone we can all happily pick our own realities. Isn't that fun.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #651 on: September 13, 2014, 03:09:18 PM »

So, does "expected declaration time" mean that each council area will be announced all at once, like the constituencies in Parliamentary elections?

Yes.

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Some of these councils cover far-flung areas (Highland alone is bigger than some EU countries) and communications can be quite poor.

There was one general election where the result from one of the island constituencies was severely delayed because the helicopter which had been chartered to bring the ballot boxes in from some of the outlying islands had to be used instead to ferry a heavily pregnant woman to hospital in Inverness.

The Edinburgh counting team faces none of these difficulties, but is still notoriously slow.

Thanks. So they physically take the ballots to be counted centrally, rather than counting at the polling stations and communicating the results to the central constituency office?
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afleitch
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« Reply #652 on: September 13, 2014, 03:34:30 PM »

So after the polls of just the last couple of days alone we can all happily pick our own realities. Isn't that fun.

It's a big unknown. Pollsters might not get it right and they will never need to get it right again.

On that note its 50-49 No (not sure where that missing 1% goes) with Panelbase.

50.6 to 49.4
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #653 on: September 13, 2014, 05:24:19 PM »

So, does "expected declaration time" mean that each council area will be announced all at once, like the constituencies in Parliamentary elections?

Yes.

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Some of these councils cover far-flung areas (Highland alone is bigger than some EU countries) and communications can be quite poor.

There was one general election where the result from one of the island constituencies was severely delayed because the helicopter which had been chartered to bring the ballot boxes in from some of the outlying islands had to be used instead to ferry a heavily pregnant woman to hospital in Inverness.

The Edinburgh counting team faces none of these difficulties, but is still notoriously slow.

Thanks. So they physically take the ballots to be counted centrally, rather than counting at the polling stations and communicating the results to the central constituency office?

Yes. This is always how it's done in Britain (and Ireland).
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #654 on: September 13, 2014, 06:05:16 PM »

The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.
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njwes
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« Reply #655 on: September 13, 2014, 06:08:08 PM »

The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

K. So therefore Scotland should vote for independence I guess?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #656 on: September 13, 2014, 06:09:20 PM »

The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

K. So therefore Scotland should vote for independence I guess?

I'm not saying that. Just reporting what will inevitably be a story.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #657 on: September 13, 2014, 06:12:13 PM »

Keystone Phil ---- this is about the only issue that you and I will be united on. Smiley
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #658 on: September 13, 2014, 06:19:33 PM »

Keystone Phil ---- this is about the only issue that you and I will be united on. Smiley

Common sense will do that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #659 on: September 13, 2014, 06:51:21 PM »

...
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patrick1
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« Reply #660 on: September 13, 2014, 08:09:28 PM »

The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

He quite obviously is not speaking of free will here. I'm sure the next victim on deck will do the same thing, hopefully he can be rescued before. 
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patrick1
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« Reply #661 on: September 13, 2014, 08:40:53 PM »

The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

He quite obviously is not speaking of free will here. I'm sure the next victim on deck will do the same thing, hopefully he can be rescued before. 

Yeah, no kidding. Again, before anyone throws a tantrum, I'm simply posting what is still considered newsworthy. Unless Al, in his usual arrogant and condescending way, wants to say that this being a Scottish journalist and Cameron's reaction make this no more of a story than it already is.

Well no doubt the media will probably push an angle but I just don't see it moving anything.  Those who identify as British and Scottish will be rightfully appalled. I sure the Murdoch press will use in support to commence bombing and some, largely left. elements will be introspective on the matter.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #662 on: September 14, 2014, 01:50:12 AM »

The number of people with 'cheap-seats' views on this issue is remarkable.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #663 on: September 14, 2014, 03:44:40 AM »

In the latest blow to Scottish Independence, "Nessie" defects to England:



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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11090807/Scottish-independence-now-Nessie-defects.html

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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #664 on: September 14, 2014, 04:44:00 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2014, 04:50:39 AM by Phony Moderate »

YouGov well/badly ratings for three Westminster leaders in Scotland (these are internals, but still):

Cameron - 27/68
Miliband - 19/74
Clegg - 10/85

EDIT: Oh yes, and the internals also show a 45/48 Yes/No split.



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Lurker
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« Reply #665 on: September 14, 2014, 05:53:38 AM »

According to Ukpollingreport neither side has gotten a more than 54% support in any of the last 8 polls. In these polls, both sides have a ceiling of 54% and a floor of 46%. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8984#comments

The average of these polls is

YES: 48,6%  --------- NO: 51,4%            

Can't get much closer than this.  
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #666 on: September 14, 2014, 10:27:13 AM »

Okay, so Yes Scotland are having a hissy fit over BBC bias.

One of the truisms of British politics is that all sides think the BBC is biased towards the other side. I, personally, think the BBC's coverage has been quite balanced during the referendum.

Yes Scotland also forget they've been backed by Murdoch anyway, but selective amnesia is something that's defined their campaign, so I'm not shocked at this selective outrage.
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pendragon
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« Reply #667 on: September 14, 2014, 11:20:21 AM »

YouGov well/badly ratings for three Westminster leaders in Scotland (these are internals, but still):

Cameron - 27/68
Miliband - 19/74
Clegg - 10/85

EDIT: Oh yes, and the internals also show a 45/48 Yes/No split.

Cameron is the most popular Westminster leader in Scotland? I have to say that I'd never have predicted that...
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politicus
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« Reply #668 on: September 14, 2014, 11:24:17 AM »

YouGov well/badly ratings for three Westminster leaders in Scotland (these are internals, but still):

Cameron - 27/68
Miliband - 19/74
Clegg - 10/85

EDIT: Oh yes, and the internals also show a 45/48 Yes/No split.

Cameron is the most popular Westminster leader in Scotland? I have to say that I'd never have predicted that...

Nah, he is the least unpopular.
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bore
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« Reply #669 on: September 14, 2014, 12:19:58 PM »

Was question how well are they doing their jobs or do you like them?
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Badger
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« Reply #670 on: September 14, 2014, 01:52:43 PM »

Unless Al, in his usual arrogant and condescending way,

Pot, meet kettle.

Anyhoo, my reason for posting here are to say that I'm a huge believer in popular soverignty, but it's downright foolish to leave such a mammoth vastly-reaching event utterly affecting every person to a simple 50%+1 vote. The fact that such an irrevocable change of history should be potentially determined by the momentary (dis)approval of the of the PM or Home Secretary, or some non-story like this twisting the vote based on a momentary sway of fleeting opinion, or bad weather >iminishing turnout in a pro-union stronghold.

There REALLY should be some type of super-majority required; at least 60%, if not 2/3 support. Fwiw, I felt the same way about the Quebec independence referendum,  and and Southern sucession as well.

That is all.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #671 on: September 14, 2014, 02:33:19 PM »

Unless Al, in his usual arrogant and condescending way,

Pot, meet kettle.

Anyhoo, my reason for posting here are to say that I'm a huge believer in popular soverignty, but it's downright foolish to leave such a mammoth vastly-reaching event utterly affecting every person to a simple 50%+1 vote. The fact that such an irrevocable change of history should be potentially determined by the momentary (dis)approval of the of the PM or Home Secretary, or some non-story like this twisting the vote based on a momentary sway of fleeting opinion, or bad weather >iminishing turnout in a pro-union stronghold.

There REALLY should be some type of super-majority required; at least 60%, if not 2/3 support. Fwiw, I felt the same way about the Quebec independence referendum,  and and Southern sucession as well.

That is all.

Exactly, the nats love saying that the referendum shouldn't be about Salmond and Sturgeon, completely not realising that they've based a lot of their campaign on bashing Cameron (and Thatcher, of course).
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EPG
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« Reply #672 on: September 14, 2014, 04:11:48 PM »

The referendum is nothing to do with popular sovereignty. It is a device which will be used by Parliament to form a future decision on Scottish independence. Everyone accepted 50%+1, probably because this isn't some limit on imperfect representative democracy but a consultative exercise of everyone eligible to vote. Denying independence on, say, a 65% vote would have consequences. It's questionable to argue that a 51% victory would reflect ephemeral, transient whims, whereas a 51% slim defeat reflects earnest, longstanding consensus.
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politicus
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« Reply #673 on: September 14, 2014, 05:00:48 PM »

The referendum is nothing to do with popular sovereignty. It is a device which will be used by Parliament to form a future decision on Scottish independence. Everyone accepted 50%+1, probably because this isn't some limit on imperfect representative democracy but a consultative exercise of everyone eligible to vote. Denying independence on, say, a 65% vote would have consequences. It's questionable to argue that a 51% victory would reflect ephemeral, transient whims, whereas a 51% slim defeat reflects earnest, longstanding consensus.

Actually since the elderly are the most solid No voters you could argue that a small defeat is a lot more transient than a small Yes victory.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #674 on: September 15, 2014, 02:42:15 AM »

The referendum is all about political gain and nothing else.  If Yes wins, then the SNP would essentially become Scotland's "Natural Governing Party" by default.
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