Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014  (Read 145591 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #700 on: September 16, 2014, 04:22:45 AM »

Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward??  Cheesy

Is there a word for super-duper-mapgasm? Wink
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MaxQue
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« Reply #701 on: September 16, 2014, 04:44:26 AM »

The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward??  Cheesy

By council.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #702 on: September 16, 2014, 05:28:25 AM »

Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

While I agree it's unfortunate that 51% of Scots could force the other 49% to become independent, it would be way more unfair to let 41% of Scots force the other 59% to stay united with Britain. Simple majority is the best system because minimizes the number of unhappy voters.

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.
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afleitch
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« Reply #703 on: September 16, 2014, 06:09:38 AM »

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

In the 1979 referendum, it was required that 40% of all registered voters had to vote Yes. Which meant, technically, that if you weren't voting at all you were voting No, or if you had died in the weeks and months prior to the vote without the register being updated your vote was also technically a 'no' (despite you being dead) While the Assembly passed, it didn't get over 40% of the electorate so was shelved.

Which is why registration based thresholds are a generally bad idea!
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afleitch
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« Reply #704 on: September 16, 2014, 06:11:48 AM »

The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward??  Cheesy

By council and probably (if councils make the data available) by constituency. It should be possible using the polling data and adjusting it to the result and then applying that across each council to 'guesstimate' how wards would have voted. Which I will probably do.
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Krago
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« Reply #705 on: September 16, 2014, 06:14:27 AM »

My friend and I just arrived in Glasgow from Canada (Ontario) as 'referendum tourists'.  We're travelling to Edinburgh on Wednesday, and are looking for a good place to watch the results come in early on Friday morning (2am to 7am!).  Any suggestions?

P.S. If any Scottish Forumites would be willing to share their opinions with us over an ale or two, we're buying!

I've had no responses to my rather generous offer.  No True Scotsman would pass up a free pint!
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #706 on: September 16, 2014, 06:52:35 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2014, 06:56:05 AM by Phony Moderate »

We definitely need at least a couple more polls given that the weekend's were quite inconclusive. Strange that the polling companies (or, rather, their clients) are still more interested in GE2015 despite this being arguably more significant.

Edit: Ah, there are five due out tomorrow so PB informs me.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #707 on: September 16, 2014, 08:30:28 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2014, 08:32:30 AM by ilikeverin »

The BBC has just kind of abandoned the idea of neutrality, apparently, at least based on their reporting of the story.  (I'm not sure I understand how this undermines the Yes campaign's message, though; if Scotland were independent, they would have all the powers they need in order to fix the budget shortfall with no strings attached, wouldn't they?)
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afleitch
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« Reply #708 on: September 16, 2014, 09:33:52 AM »

The BBC has just kind of abandoned the idea of neutrality, apparently, at least based on their reporting of the story.

They did that a few years ago;

https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/john-robertson/bbc-bias-and-scots-referendum-new-report
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #709 on: September 16, 2014, 11:32:18 AM »

Well, you make a caricature out of my position.

No, I just did what I often do which is use a reply to also make general observations.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #710 on: September 16, 2014, 12:04:13 PM »

Looks like Nate Silver has also weighed in on this same debate.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #711 on: September 16, 2014, 12:22:46 PM »

If the Scots opt for freedom, will they still be allowed to vote for a last time in the parliamentary election next year and above all in the EU referendum?
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🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
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« Reply #712 on: September 16, 2014, 12:30:59 PM »

Nobody really knows what will happen in the 2015 general election if a Yes vote occurs. Perhaps no unionist party should bother contesting and just leave the SNP to mop up everything.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
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« Reply #713 on: September 16, 2014, 12:40:21 PM »

If Scotland secedes, can I change my flag to the Scottish flag?
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #714 on: September 16, 2014, 03:40:13 PM »

If the Scots opt for freedom, will they still be allowed to vote for a last time in the parliamentary election next year and above all in the EU referendum?

Freedom?

Do me a favour

70% of Scottish exports goes to England.

That's real freedom isn't it? haha
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #715 on: September 16, 2014, 03:45:48 PM »

Can someone explain to me a little bit about the geopolitics and demographic politics of Scotland regarding this referendum.

Is independence more popular in the cities, country, with younger, older, more educated, less educated, north, south, etc?
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Lurker
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« Reply #716 on: September 16, 2014, 04:00:36 PM »

The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%
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CrabCake
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« Reply #717 on: September 16, 2014, 04:55:48 PM »

Here's a hypothetical: how different would these campaigns have been if the question was "Do you wish to remain part of the UK?"
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politicus
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« Reply #718 on: September 16, 2014, 05:02:16 PM »

The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

Glad I changed my prediction to 52,1% No.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #719 on: September 16, 2014, 05:12:20 PM »

As pointed out elsewhere, the question of the campaign has been "Could Scotland be an independent country?". The question on the ballot paper is "Should Scotland be an independent country?".
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #720 on: September 16, 2014, 06:07:29 PM »

The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

Glad I changed my prediction to 52,1% No.

It should be noted that a study has been done of referendum polling from across the world. The interesting thing is that the support for change is never underestimated in polling.

Considering there's a clump who remain undecided... if they turn out, and I think they will, they'll break heavily for No... I'm comfortable with my 54-46 No prediction Tongue
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #721 on: September 16, 2014, 06:27:49 PM »

ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #722 on: September 16, 2014, 06:38:06 PM »

It's the undecideds, stupid.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #723 on: September 16, 2014, 06:47:14 PM »

We are all afleitch on Thursday.
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KEmperor
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« Reply #724 on: September 16, 2014, 07:21:13 PM »


That sounds painful.
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