Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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  Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014  (Read 145597 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #725 on: September 16, 2014, 07:22:26 PM »


Shocked

Kemp! Is that really you?
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KEmperor
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« Reply #726 on: September 16, 2014, 07:23:25 PM »

Yeah, the upcoming vote had me curious as to what was being said on here, so I just finished reading though this thread for the past hour or so.  (Was off from work today and bored)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #727 on: September 16, 2014, 07:31:34 PM »


I don't plan on being disappointed?
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Boris
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« Reply #728 on: September 16, 2014, 07:44:26 PM »

Bringing out the big guns!

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #729 on: September 16, 2014, 07:46:06 PM »

Wow. He's truly horrible.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #730 on: September 16, 2014, 07:50:55 PM »

While it's not his place to say it... Clinton's right.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #731 on: September 16, 2014, 07:56:13 PM »

I just love how Bill makes it seem like it's killing him to "have" to weigh in on this. He was "reluctant" to speak his mind on this. Mmmhmmm. Roll Eyes
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #732 on: September 16, 2014, 09:39:16 PM »

Yeah, the upcoming vote had me curious as to what was being said on here, so I just finished reading though this thread for the past hour or so.  (Was off from work today and bored)

*hughughug*
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #733 on: September 17, 2014, 12:59:02 AM »

ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #734 on: September 17, 2014, 01:04:22 AM »

ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.

Even if it is (which I think it is) - it'll make sure that next time, the Yes campaign will have more to campaign on besides sentiment... such as concrete plans for the transition and implementation of the post-UK systems. Including plans to retain English based businesses. Which is where they fell down spectacularly. Saying "eh, we'll sort it out later... " isn't good enough.

But considering how much ground they made up... it shows there's a decent appetite out there.
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politicus
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« Reply #735 on: September 17, 2014, 01:51:26 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2014, 02:00:56 AM by politicus »

Can someone explain to me a little bit about the geopolitics and demographic politics of Scotland regarding this referendum.

Is independence more popular in the cities, country, with younger, older, more educated, less educated, north, south, etc?

Independence is most popular with the 35-55 age group, folowed by youngs and most unpopular with 55+.

Men are more likely to support independence than women, but the gender gap has been closing somewhat.

Working class and lower middle class (E, D, C2 in the British statistical classification) are more supportive of independence than more affluent people (A, B, C1), but they also have more undecideds.

The areas in the south along the border and Edinburgh + Shetland/Orkney are anti-independence, the east and north-east are generally pro-independence, while Glasgow is a key battleground area.

See this for the 4 big cities: http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-the-key-referendum-battlegrounds

Gully posted this earlier in the thread:



It has some quirks, like Western Isles being likely anti-independece, but it should give you a general idea.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #736 on: September 17, 2014, 01:52:43 AM »

It appears the true sign of panic has emerged... allegations of vote-rigging, in advance of the vote being rigged, are starting to trickle out. I've been perusing hardcore 'Yes' forums and blogs.... it's a bit scary.
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politicus
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« Reply #737 on: September 17, 2014, 01:54:19 AM »

It appears the true sign of panic has emerged... allegations of vote-rigging, in advance of the vote being rigged, are starting to trickle out. I've been perusing hardcore 'Yes' forums and blogs.... it's a bit scary.

Could you give some links?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #738 on: September 17, 2014, 03:16:07 AM »

ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.

Not so; anything from a ~20 point no win to a ~10 point yes win is within the realms of possibility imo. This is probably the most unpredictable vote in UK (ha ha) history.
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« Reply #739 on: September 17, 2014, 05:57:34 AM »

The Nats online do seem to get spooked fairly easily, so I wouldn't take any notice. The most amusing case was when they blamed unionists for a power cut in Aberdeenshire on Twitter.
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politicus
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« Reply #740 on: September 17, 2014, 06:37:43 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2014, 06:39:59 AM by politicus »

The Nats online do seem to get spooked fairly easily, so I wouldn't take any notice. The most amusing case was when they blamed unionists for a power cut in Aberdeenshire on Twitter.

Probably an MI5 operation.

19% of Scots believe the referendum result will be rigged and 26% that the MI5 is working to stop Scottish independence.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/11/conspiracy-theories-rife-in-scottish-referendum-debate_n_5805378.html
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SPQR
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« Reply #741 on: September 17, 2014, 06:43:09 AM »

The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

Glad I changed my prediction to 52,1% No.

It should be noted that a study has been done of referendum polling from across the world. The interesting thing is that the support for change is never underestimated in polling.

Considering there's a clump who remain undecided... if they turn out, and I think they will, they'll break heavily for No... I'm comfortable with my 54-46 No prediction Tongue
Same here.
Undecideds will probably decide that,in the end,the status quo is not that bad.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #742 on: September 17, 2014, 07:31:21 AM »

Final Prediction

No - 51%
Yes - 49%
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afleitch
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« Reply #743 on: September 17, 2014, 08:48:43 AM »

In the three polls last night, the undecided voters are split by 57,60,62 to Yes. The split in 1979 was 60:40 to Yes but in 1997 it was 83:17 to Yes.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #744 on: September 17, 2014, 09:01:56 AM »

A few numbers, because I like numbers:

Scottish independence: Councils braced for huge turnout

Scotland's 32 local authorities are in the final stages of a huge logistical exercise to ensure the smooth running of Thursday's independence referendum.

Across the country, ballot boxes and other paraphernalia are being moved in to the schools and community buildings that will become polling places.

A total of 4,285,323 people have registered to vote.

With turnout expected to top 80%, Thursday looks like being the busiest day in Scottish electoral history.

There are an estimated 4,410,288 people over the age of 16 resident in Scotland, according to 2012 figures from the Scottish government.
Additional staff

This suggests that 97% of the total number of people eligible to vote have registered.

Across the country, local councils will be responsible for the operation of some 2,608 polling places with a total of 5,579 polling stations from 07:00 until 22:00.

The polling places are the schools and halls that voters attend to cast their votes. The stations are the designated rooms within the polling places which handle voters based on where they live.

In most areas, a maximum of 800 voters have been allocated to each polling station and many will allocate additional staff to assist during busy times.

(...)

Nationally, a total of 789,024 people applied for a postal vote, which is the largest volume of registration for postal votes ever in Scotland.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29235191
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #745 on: September 17, 2014, 09:05:51 AM »

So, there are 4,285,323 eligible voters - of which 789,024 vote by mail ballot.

That leaves ca. 3.5 million people on election day (with 90% turnout it would be 3.15 Mio.)

That means 565 voters on average per polling station, in a 15 hour time span.

38 voters/hour in each polling station.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #746 on: September 17, 2014, 10:37:26 AM »

The presumably final Panelbase poll: No 50, Yes 45
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YL
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« Reply #747 on: September 17, 2014, 10:39:13 AM »

At this point a Yes victory would be pretty bad for the pollsters, collectively.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #748 on: September 17, 2014, 10:41:14 AM »

Working class and lower middle class (E, D, C2 in the British statistical classification) are more supportive of independence than more affluent people (A, B, C1), but they also have more undecideds.

The NRS social grade, yes. Unfortunately it wasn't very accurate when it was devised in the 1960s and is laughable now, but still the polling companies use it (I suspect partly because clients have got so used to those reassuring letters - morons).
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angus
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« Reply #749 on: September 17, 2014, 10:45:12 AM »

31 pages!  With more than twice the population of Scotland, South Sudan's thread only got 33 posts.  Not quite a page and a half.  And that one featured UN peacekeepers, ethnic cleansing, gang rapes, and general mayhem.  Of course, the Yes vote was an easy prediction there, and it ended up being about 99%.






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