Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014  (Read 145598 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #775 on: September 17, 2014, 07:13:26 PM »

I'm disappointed. 538 has some coverage of this, but not forecast or projection.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #776 on: September 17, 2014, 07:22:02 PM »

I'm disappointed. 538 has some coverage of this, but not forecast or projection.

Because the polling is still kind of screwed, there's no benchmarks... you can't really draw a forecast when you only have stand-alone data.
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jaichind
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« Reply #777 on: September 17, 2014, 07:24:34 PM »

I'm disappointed. 538 has some coverage of this, but not forecast or projection.

Here is a Chinese version of 538 with a projection. This guy uses a combo of polls, various betting sites, GBP, and google searches data.  It comes up with 45.6/54.4 for No.

http://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2014/09/scottish-independence-movement.html
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politicus
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« Reply #778 on: September 17, 2014, 07:31:08 PM »

Maybe it would help if they allowed the third option on this one:

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #779 on: September 17, 2014, 08:01:06 PM »

Attention: Americans (and others, I guess)

BBC World will be broadcasting live coverage of the results beginning at 6 PM ET (11 PM in Scotland) tomorrow and will continue for four hours.
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KEmperor
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« Reply #780 on: September 17, 2014, 09:16:59 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2014, 09:26:43 PM by KEmperor »

Attention: Americans (and others, I guess)

BBC World will be broadcasting live coverage of the results beginning at 6 PM ET (11 PM in Scotland) tomorrow and will continue for four hours.

I have absolutely no idea if I even get that channel.

Edit:  Nevermind, I found it, it's channel 104.  And I don't get it.
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Sbane
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« Reply #781 on: September 17, 2014, 11:34:14 PM »

Attention: Americans (and others, I guess)

BBC World will be broadcasting live coverage of the results beginning at 6 PM ET (11 PM in Scotland) tomorrow and will continue for four hours.

Live stream?
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jfern
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« Reply #782 on: September 18, 2014, 01:41:05 AM »

Polls are open.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #783 on: September 18, 2014, 01:54:30 AM »

So, the results should be out tomorrow morning when I'm finished with breakfast @ ca. 7-8 ?

Excellent.
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Beet
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« Reply #784 on: September 18, 2014, 01:59:23 AM »

Regardless of the outcome today, the very fact that such a significant minority of the Scots would vote for independence has made this a fascinating little excursion in history.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #785 on: September 18, 2014, 02:01:04 AM »

Regardless of the outcome today, the very fact that such a significant minority of the Scots would vote for independence has made this a fascinating little excursion in history.

Please wait until the votes are counted.

Maybe the people are lying to pollsters.

Maybe Yes wins with 52-55%.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #786 on: September 18, 2014, 02:36:21 AM »

The fundamental thing is that no polling company has got a true hold on how this thing is going to turn out...

Which makes it, at the very least, an adventure in psephology.
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Lurker
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« Reply #787 on: September 18, 2014, 02:46:04 AM »

The fundamental thing is that no polling company has got a true hold on how this thing is going to turn out...

Which makes it, at the very least, an adventure in psephology.

True. I wouldn't be very surprised if the polls turn out to be way off - in either direction.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #788 on: September 18, 2014, 02:49:06 AM »

When do the polls close?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #789 on: September 18, 2014, 03:00:04 AM »


10PM in UK, so, 5PM Eastern.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #790 on: September 18, 2014, 03:00:06 AM »

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #791 on: September 18, 2014, 03:10:27 AM »


That means 23:00 o'clock CEST? Wow, that's late...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #792 on: September 18, 2014, 03:12:38 AM »

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.
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politicus
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« Reply #793 on: September 18, 2014, 03:20:21 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2014, 03:58:39 AM by politicus »

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Another factor is that this election could get a very high turnout. 97% of adult Scots are registered to vote - including many who had dropped off the electoral roll. So this includes people that pollsters are bad at polling - those who are alienated from politics and never vote, people in temporary housing etc. Since poorer people generally are more inclined to vote yes, they could break for yes.
Also, as a journalist on the Spectator put it: "It seems a fair assumption that people haven’t returned to the electoral roll or registered for the first time to back the status quo."

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #794 on: September 18, 2014, 03:20:38 AM »

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #795 on: September 18, 2014, 03:31:17 AM »

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #796 on: September 18, 2014, 03:34:28 AM »


UK polls are always open between 7:00-22:00.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #797 on: September 18, 2014, 03:37:03 AM »

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).

Yes, but these voters probably are the reason why it's somewhat close in the first place. There's no indication that these people haven't been accounted for in polling (British polls don't use LV screens AFAIK).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #798 on: September 18, 2014, 03:40:55 AM »

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).

Yes, but these voters probably are the reason why it's somewhat close in the first place. There's no indication that these people haven't been accounted for in polling (British polls don't use LV screens AFAIK).

Made some mistake: It should not read "who are secretly poorer and nationalist", but "who are poorer and secretly nationalist".

Tongue

...

I think Scottish referendum polls are generally weighted by likelyhood to vote, no ?

(Which is basically "likely voters", but the UK posters probably know more).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #799 on: September 18, 2014, 03:43:15 AM »

Yeah, I understood the mistake, no trouble. Wink

And anyway, I really hope you're right! Smiley
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