Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[njwes]

Translation: The UK does what we want and doesn't ask inconvenient questions.

I did read a few comments by Yes supporters around the internet early this morning that if the No vote come out on top it'll be as a result of undercover machinations funded and guided by Zionist and/or US forces.... so there's that.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Perhaps we should have a separate results thread?

[justfollowingtheelections]

I would be very surprised if yes doesn't win.

[Oakvale]

Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

[Tender Branson]

Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

This is not unusual in these polarizing elections, especially in rural areas where voting is still seen as a civic duty.

Some precincts might actually have more than 100% turnout, if all the regular people in small-town-precincts vote, plus some tourists from other parts of Scotland who decide to drop off their absentee ballots in these precincts.

That's at least what happens here in elections in a few Spa-towns.

[Oakvale]

Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

This is not unusual in these polarizing elections, especially in rural areas where voting is still seen as a civic duty.

Some precincts might actually have more than 100% turnout, if all the regular people in small-town-precincts vote, plus some tourists from other parts of Scotland who decide to drop off their absentee ballots in these precincts.

That's at least what happens here in elections in a few Spa-towns.

Yeah, I'd imagine they're not literally closing as such because, as you say, people might want to drop off postal votes.

[politicus]

I would be very surprised if yes doesn't win.

Why?

[angus]

100% turnout

100% turnout

A very foreign concept to Americans, no doubt.

[politicus]

Perhaps we should have a separate results thread?

I made one.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I would be very surprised if yes doesn't win.

Why?

It's not really based on anything, but it seems to be a once in a lifetime opportunity for Scotland.

[King]

Something like this better get 100%... independence should be one of those issues where the cynical "your vote like doesn't matter mannn, it's all the same mannn" people don't apply.

[politicus]

Something like this better get 100%... independence should be one of those issues where the cynical "your vote like doesn't matter mannn, it's all the same mannn" people don't apply.

"Only" 97% have registered.

[Tender Branson]

Something like this better get 100%... independence should be one of those issues where the cynical "your vote like doesn't matter mannn, it's all the same mannn" people don't apply.

"Only" 97% have registered.

Indeed, Scotland doesn't have automatic voter registration that covers ALL people who are citizens of voting-age. That leaves ca. 140.000 people who would normally be eligible to vote, but who didn't register to vote.

Btw, are there any complaints from some of these people who show up at polling places and find out they are not registered and can't vote ?

[njwes]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

The lying could potentially go the other way too though. It seems like there's a possibility of a "silent majority" situation among No voters--many articles/interviews have indicated a certain level of reluctance or fear among No voters to reveal their opinions publicly. Perhaps that reticence could have carried over to poling.

[Tender Branson]

Just voted. There is going to be enormous turnout. There was a very steady stream of people at 2 o clock, so I can only imagine what it will be like at 6 or 7.

A good argument for Sunday-voting then.

During workdays, there will be long lines in the morning, lunch-break, and after-work - but on Sunday the flow would be more even.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it's ridiculous that there are still countries that don't hold elections on Sundays. This is so obviously preferable in every way.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link

[Oakvale]

Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link

As I've said the thing I find perplexing about that vastly over-represented 19% on this forum is that I can understand an American supporting Scottish independence for romantic reasons. That makes sense to me. How does an American unionist happen? Some nonsense about Keeping Our Ally Strong!!1 ?

[Badger]

Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

While I agree it's unfortunate that 51% of Scots could force the other 49% to become independent, it would be way more unfair to let 41% of Scots force the other 59% to stay united with Britain. Simple majority is the best system because minimizes the number of unhappy voters.

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

Perhaps then 50% +1 of all registered voters would make even more sense?

[Badger]

Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link

As I've said the thing I find perplexing out that vastly over-represented 19% on this forum is that I can understand an American supporting Scottish independence for romantic reasons. That makes sense to me. How does an American unionist happen? Some nonsense about Keeping Our Ally Strong!!1 ?

Partially that. Partially wanting to avoid the economic dislocation, both short term and long, and it's ripple effects on the EU and ultimately here at home. Also some of us oppose such dislocation being based on a bare majority principle.

Maybe some liberals may oppose it because they don't want to see Labour and the LDs screwed from losing a big chunk of their base.

[King]

If the country was on the brink of civil war, maybe it will be unfortunate. If Yes wins, one year from now 60+% of Scots will be happy with it. If No wins, 60+% of Scots will be happy with it.

The indifferent middle will support the end result.

[Sbane]

Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link

As I've said the thing I find perplexing about that vastly over-represented 19% on this forum is that I can understand an American supporting Scottish independence for romantic reasons. That makes sense to me. How does an American unionist happen? Some nonsense about Keeping Our Ally Strong!!1 ?

Look, at least in the short term, Scotland is better off staying with the UK. You can argue these issues shouldn't be decided with a short term view but that explains some of the opposition to this plan. The no side needs to have a better thought out plan for an independent Scotland. I am an American who opposes Scotland independence and it has nothing to do with loyalty to the crown.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

While I agree it's unfortunate that 51% of Scots could force the other 49% to become independent, it would be way more unfair to let 41% of Scots force the other 59% to stay united with Britain. Simple majority is the best system because minimizes the number of unhappy voters.

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

Perhaps then 50% +1 of all registered voters would make even more sense?

50% of registered voters is really a lot though. Even with 90% turnout, that would still mean an effective threshold of 55.6%, which is quite enormous. And really, when turnout is so high, those 10% who don't go to the polls probably wouldn't have any clue how they will vote. It's not like this sort of voter demobilization really determines the outcome. I think a 40-45% threshold is pretty reasonable.

[politicus]

To backtore:

1) Edinburgh is expected to be a clear No vote.

2) Many rural areas are strongly pro-independence.

3) While olds are more unionist than youngs there are plenty of places where a majority of senior citizens will vote Yes.

[Hifly]

Yeah, it's ridiculous that there are still countries that don't hold elections on Sundays. This is so obviously preferable in every way.

Unless you live in the Western Isles and want to observe the Sabbath.