Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[njwes]

I'm on the fence with this - Can someone give me an unbiased list of pros and cons for Scottish independence?

As New Jerseyans, should we have a definite opinion? ;p


Despite being sprawling and poorly organized the "Issues" list on the wiki is always a good place to start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

[njwes]

Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

[njwes]

Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

Gotcha. Well then, to take it a bit further: if Scotland does achieve independence, why should we expect the party to stay together as a large political force at all (given a few years)? Its raison d'être is to achieve Scottish independence; with that gone, with nothing to glue together the various factions, couldn't we expect the SNP to dissolve? Leftist SNP voters go to Scottish Labour or Scottish Socialists, conservatives go to Scottish Cons, liberals to Scottish Lib-Dem, and so on.

Obviously that's not at all what happened in Ireland, and I'm not familiar with the history there, but I'd imagine the circumstances are so different that any predictions of the SNP's future based on Fianna Fáil's history would be problematic.

[njwes]

Quote from njwes

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The history is indeed different. The SNP has always been a non-violent party. The Irish political system emerged from a War of Independence and a subsequent Civil War between the pro and anti treaty wings of the independence movement. Fianna Fáil were the part of the anti treaty side in the Civil War which, a few years later, took their seats in the democratic legislature of the 26 county state. 

Vote as you shot will not be the principle around which the Scottish political system will be organised.

Just look at the conservative Country folk who make up a lot of the base of the Parti Quebecois for a counter example. The PQ might be officially socialist, but it plays to those voters through cultural conservatism

I'm don't see any contradiction between being socialist and socially conservative though; some might just call them populist.

So, what are the political leanings of rural Scots? Lib Dems seem to have done well the last couple decades in those areas.

[njwes]

LOL

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11086121/Independent-Scotland-wont-pay-back-debt-Alex-Salmond-says.html

Maybe getting a tad too cocky?

[njwes]

Has there been any discussion recently of the Shetland and Orkney Islands and Western Isles? I seem to remember earlier in the year some talk that they may look for a third way in the event that they all vote No while Scotland as a whole votes Yes.

Not sure how realistic the ideas were but it was interesting.

[njwes]

The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country. Shetland and Orkney will likely be the opposite, and there have been some, probably trollish suggestions about them seceding from Scotland, but I don't think they're being serious.

Ah ok gotcha, thanks!

I understand why it seems more like trolling, but I think I agree with Bleeding Heart Conservative. "If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?" To simply say that "Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not" doesn't do it for me; the definition and boundaries of "nations" are nearly always ambiguous and less clear-cut than people imagine them to be.

Given their location and history, is it that hard to believe that many inhabitants of Shetland and Orkney, or the Borders for that matter, feel themselves to be rather different than the Scots of the Edinburgh/Glasgow/Highlands core of Scotland? And that they might feel it deeply wrong that the rest of the "nation" can tear them away from the UK against their will?

[njwes]

Scotland is a much more well defined and homogeneous nation than most European nations. The old highland/lowland dividing line is virtually obsolete as the Gaeliec culture has in reality died out outside of the Western Isles (highland (pseudo-)culture has of course on a symbolic level spread to all of Scotland in the form of kilts, bagpipes and tartans etc.).

Uh-oh, sounds like someone needs to read up on his Eric Hobsbawn!

I understand your points and they're well-taken, but ultimately I think any areas of Scotland that genuinely would prefer to stay in the UK by large margins should be allowed to if they make their wishes clear. There's something disturbing to me about saying, well they have to leave the UK no matter what their wishes because that's the collective will of ~the nation~. It sounds very early 20th century to me.

[njwes]

The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

K. So therefore Scotland should vote for independence I guess?

[njwes]

It's amazing how every poll shows such a narrow No lead. You'd expect MoE would have a fluke Yes lead or No at 55 or something.

At this point all the companies I'm sure are aware that a Yes lead in their poll would be likely embarrassing

[njwes]

Is there any worry about potential "bad behavior" from some nationalists if the vote fails?

[njwes]

So I heard earlier today that the Better Together campaign actually trumpeted Bill Clinton's statement in favor of No.

Regardless of how you feel on the matter of independence, I think everyone can agree that that's just shockingly pathetic by the No camp.

The No campaign has been incredibly pathetic generally. If the No vote does come out ahead, as seems likely, I get the sense that it'll have been largely in spite of Better Together.

[njwes]

Some good covers on tomorrows newspapers

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-scotland-29233956

[njwes]

Translation: The UK does what we want and doesn't ask inconvenient questions.

I did read a few comments by Yes supporters around the internet early this morning that if the No vote come out on top it'll be as a result of undercover machinations funded and guided by Zionist and/or US forces.... so there's that.

[njwes]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

The lying could potentially go the other way too though. It seems like there's a possibility of a "silent majority" situation among No voters--many articles/interviews have indicated a certain level of reluctance or fear among No voters to reveal their opinions publicly. Perhaps that reticence could have carried over to poling.

[njwes]

Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

Nope:

"Despite some rumours on Twitter, Severin Carrell has confirmed with Falkirk council that it is “simply not true” polling stations closed early because 100% of their local voters turned up.

All polling stations will be open until 10pm BST. You’ve still got plenty of time if you haven’t yet voted."