Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Tender Branson]

I didn't follow this very closely, but would high turnout help the Independence side more or the pro-UK side ? Who is more motivated to vote ?

[Tender Branson]

Looks like there's a 2nd TV-debate tomorrow at 21:30 CEST on BBC.

Maybe Alex Salmond has studied his 1st debate (fail ?) and comes out swinging ... !?

If Salmond has a more or less good performance, then I could see this thing getting quite close.

[Tender Branson]

A new Daily Mail poll has the "Yes" side gaining after the debate:



But a look into the internals show that old Scots back the union with 60-40 and 90-92% of olds are "certain" to turn out in the referendum, compared to only 70-85% of younger Scots, who like to back Independence more.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks to be extremely high as well.

On a scale of 0-10, more than 90% (!!!) say that they are a 10 (certain) to vote.

Usually, the "certain" number is pretty much the actual turnout on election day.

I also hope that Scotland has a fail-proof vote counting system in place for election day, in the event that the vote is going to be extremely close.

I don't want a Scottish "Florida-2000" ...

[Tender Branson]

I'd also like to see Scotland beat Germany tonight in the first quali game for the EURO 2016.

[Tender Branson]

A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

[Tender Branson]

If anything here comes close to the Scottish situation right now, it would be the 1978 Austrian referendum on the Nuclear Power Plant Zwentendorf, with polls showing voters supported the NPP by a 2:1 margin when the campaign started.

In the end (with the plant already built and about to be started), the voters rejected it by a 50.5-49.5 margin, a stunning defeat for Chancellor Kreisky (a Socialist). Kreisky, a year later, won the biggest landslide for the Socialist party with 51%, something which has never been achieved ...

[Tender Branson]

The September-surprise:

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http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

[Tender Branson]

Brand new poll has NO leading with 53-47 (47.6-42.4-10 with undecideds).

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http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/independence-referendum-exclusive-daily-record-4196976

[Tender Branson]

A total of 4.285.323 people have registered to vote in the Indy referendum.

Scotland does not have automatic voter registration, which means out of a total 4.4 million people aged 16 or more, ca. 97% of all eligible people have registered to vote.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/11/referendum-registered-voters-scotland-four-million-97-per-cent

[Tender Branson]

In the latest blow to Scottish Independence, "Nessie" defects to England:

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11090807/Scottish-independence-now-Nessie-defects.html

[Tender Branson]

A few numbers, because I like numbers:

Scottish independence: Councils braced for huge turnout

Scotland's 32 local authorities are in the final stages of a huge logistical exercise to ensure the smooth running of Thursday's independence referendum.

Across the country, ballot boxes and other paraphernalia are being moved in to the schools and community buildings that will become polling places.

A total of 4,285,323 people have registered to vote.

With turnout expected to top 80%, Thursday looks like being the busiest day in Scottish electoral history.

There are an estimated 4,410,288 people over the age of 16 resident in Scotland, according to 2012 figures from the Scottish government.
Additional staff

This suggests that 97% of the total number of people eligible to vote have registered.

Across the country, local councils will be responsible for the operation of some 2,608 polling places with a total of 5,579 polling stations from 07:00 until 22:00.

The polling places are the schools and halls that voters attend to cast their votes. The stations are the designated rooms within the polling places which handle voters based on where they live.

In most areas, a maximum of 800 voters have been allocated to each polling station and many will allocate additional staff to assist during busy times.

(...)

Nationally, a total of 789,024 people applied for a postal vote, which is the largest volume of registration for postal votes ever in Scotland.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29235191

[Tender Branson]

So, there are 4,285,323 eligible voters - of which 789,024 vote by mail ballot.

That leaves ca. 3.5 million people on election day (with 90% turnout it would be 3.15 Mio.)

That means 565 voters on average per polling station, in a 15 hour time span.

38 voters/hour in each polling station.

[Tender Branson]

So, the results should be out tomorrow morning when I'm finished with breakfast @ ca. 7-8 ?

Excellent.

[Tender Branson]

Regardless of the outcome today, the very fact that such a significant minority of the Scots would vote for independence has made this a fascinating little excursion in history.

Please wait until the votes are counted.

Maybe the people are lying to pollsters.

Maybe Yes wins with 52-55%.

[Tender Branson]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

[Tender Branson]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).

[Tender Branson]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).

Yes, but these voters probably are the reason why it's somewhat close in the first place. There's no indication that these people haven't been accounted for in polling (British polls don't use LV screens AFAIK).

Made some mistake: It should not read "who are secretly poorer and nationalist", but "who are poorer and secretly nationalist".



...

I think Scottish referendum polls are generally weighted by likelyhood to vote, no ?

(Which is basically "likely voters", but the UK posters probably know more).

[Tender Branson]

Another [small] game changer ?

https://twitter.com/andy_murray/status/512392618077323264

[Tender Branson]

Somehow I'd like to see it end up this way:

http://www.divxstage.to/video/5981ad909a9a2

Start at minute 11 & 15 seconds.

[Tender Branson]

Bugs Bunny votes "Yes":

[Tender Branson]

Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

This is not unusual in these polarizing elections, especially in rural areas where voting is still seen as a civic duty.

Some precincts might actually have more than 100% turnout, if all the regular people in small-town-precincts vote, plus some tourists from other parts of Scotland who decide to drop off their absentee ballots in these precincts.

That's at least what happens here in elections in a few Spa-towns.

[Tender Branson]

Something like this better get 100%... independence should be one of those issues where the cynical "your vote like doesn't matter mannn, it's all the same mannn" people don't apply.

"Only" 97% have registered.

Indeed, Scotland doesn't have automatic voter registration that covers ALL people who are citizens of voting-age. That leaves ca. 140.000 people who would normally be eligible to vote, but who didn't register to vote.

Btw, are there any complaints from some of these people who show up at polling places and find out they are not registered and can't vote ?

[Tender Branson]

Just voted. There is going to be enormous turnout. There was a very steady stream of people at 2 o clock, so I can only imagine what it will be like at 6 or 7.

A good argument for Sunday-voting then.

During workdays, there will be long lines in the morning, lunch-break, and after-work - but on Sunday the flow would be more even.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

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Link