Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Unlike some Australians who needed to keep their mouths shut... I don't have a strong view on this.

But I think this goes down 55-45... my gut feel is that people who are undecided now and vote will likely side with the status quo.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm still sticking with 54-46 No...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The number of people with 'cheap-seats' views on this issue is remarkable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Which would save the SNP from having to follow through on their promises.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why are Scottish women so supportive of the "No" side?

Why would they be supportive of 'Yes'?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why are Scottish women so supportive of the "No" side?

Women are more risk averse than men, that's a phenomenon you can find in all types of decisionmaking (from the financial markets to surgeon procedures and driving habits).

Independence is risky, the union feels safer - especially since women need the welfare state more than men, on average.

I don't know if it's women being less risk-adverse, but men perhaps connecting their 'Scottishness' to their masculinity.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

Glad I changed my prediction to 52,1% No.

It should be noted that a study has been done of referendum polling from across the world. The interesting thing is that the support for change is never underestimated in polling.

Considering there's a clump who remain undecided... if they turn out, and I think they will, they'll break heavily for No... I'm comfortable with my 54-46 No prediction

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We are all afleitch on Thursday.

I don't plan on being disappointed?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

While it's not his place to say it... Clinton's right.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.

Even if it is (which I think it is) - it'll make sure that next time, the Yes campaign will have more to campaign on besides sentiment... such as concrete plans for the transition and implementation of the post-UK systems. Including plans to retain English based businesses. Which is where they fell down spectacularly. Saying "eh, we'll sort it out later... " isn't good enough.

But considering how much ground they made up... it shows there's a decent appetite out there.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It appears the true sign of panic has emerged... allegations of vote-rigging, in advance of the vote being rigged, are starting to trickle out. I've been perusing hardcore 'Yes' forums and blogs.... it's a bit scary.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm disappointed. 538 has some coverage of this, but not forecast or projection.

Because the polling is still kind of screwed, there's no benchmarks... you can't really draw a forecast when you only have stand-alone data.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The fundamental thing is that no polling company has got a true hold on how this thing is going to turn out...

Which makes it, at the very least, an adventure in psephology.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Scots