Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[minionofmidas]

And never in the entire history of the party would the Democrats have lost an election if New York weren't a state.  But you'd have to be a joker if you thought that wouldn't be a massive disadvantage for them.

So what you're suggesting is that the Tories ought (if they knew what was good for them) support breaking up the UK (and lose all kind of important strategic and economic resources) in order to secure would would be, in practice, a comparatively minor electoral advantage? Makes perfect sense, though only after a few glasses of gin and a long stare at the attractive woman who's picture always graces the front of the paper.

Well I imagine the Scots wouldn't be so vindictive as to impose border controls or tariffs on their more southerly cousins or vice-versa, so the economic consequences would be fairly minor.  (What's a "strategic resource," anyway?  Something that makes it easier to fight wars?  I'm all for breaking up all those...).  The oil will be gone in c. 20 years or so anyway.  I'm also biased in favor of smaller countries, which as a general rule tend to be rather better-run.  Also, the small advantage gets larger if Wales or even possibly the North follow.  Main disadvantage is that the nicest-looking national flag gets way uglier (maybe the Scots will give up some random island to keep St. Andrew's cross in there, but that's doubtful).

I'd be surprised if the rest of the UK didn't just keep the union flag, not just because it would be made much uglier, but also for various reasons the rump of the UK will be trying to show that not much has changed (e.g UN Security Council) so will keep the flag the same.

I must insist that Scotland (or Wales, once it chooses Independence ) gets the Security Council seat.

[minionofmidas]

Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the (main) party of the right?

SNP, duh, just as today.

[minionofmidas]

Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the (main) party of the right?

SNP, duh, just as today.

I thought apart from the Independence parts on their platform they were social democrats.

Are we talking about platforms or voter bases? This is a psephology forum. The SNP is the major rightwing party in Scotland just like Labour is the major leftwing one.
It's true though that the right is fissured enough (over class and national identity issues) that it's hard to see the SNP ever swallowing up the entirety of the remaining Tory and LD vote, and that there are also very many people in Scotland who would not ever vote Tory or LD but may vote either SNP or Labour - and have been voting SNP in Scottish and Labour in Westminster elections of late, due in part to the state of Scottish Labour.

[minionofmidas]

Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour. 

New Labour's move rightwards to such an extent complicated everything (you have the same questions over the Liberal Democrats nationally), and allowed centrist/liberals to be seen as the left opposition.

Though only by privileged airheads* and - much more understandably - people focussing on Blair's disastrous foreign policy course. Which would naturally include a lot of foreign spectators.

*yeah, that's what I tend to think anybody so focussed on social liberalism issues as to completely ignore economics is. Not that Blair's economic course was actually leftist, of course, but the LDs certainly never overtook Labour on the left on that front.

[minionofmidas]

That sounds a little too indulgent in self-delusion, tbh. I'd sooner class students voting Liberal as those New Labour alienated, than Tories in disguise.

I was mostly joking.

It looks more a case of mistaking the terms "Middle Class" and "Tories". Typical British mistake.

[minionofmidas]

Would a 50% vote be sufficient for independence?

You know, I've been trying to find the answer to that. What they actually agreed is...

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So in principle, that would be up to the Scottish Parliament to decide. Though the language in points three and four of the first list makes me wonder whether there's some unwritten part of the agreement on that issue.

[minionofmidas]

"United Kingdom of South Britain and Northeast Ulster".

[minionofmidas]

And what would the remaining United Kingdom be called afterwards, that's what I want to know.

The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland?

Not logical. Wales is a principality and Ulster is only an earldom.
Since the territory of England and Wales is (almost) identical to the Roman province of Britannia they could just call it Britannia (the six Ulster counties would be too small a part of the new state to matter much).

They would be a larger part of the new state than the current one.

In all seriousness, the name would almost certainly not be changed. Though I guess they should drop the "Great".

[minionofmidas]

Also, I don't see how *Scotland* could possibly have any less say in the world than it does now, where it has no foreign policy and is "represented" internationally by a foreign (heh, bear with me here ) government that is itself almost completely isolated in Europe. You (Scotland that is) would have more say in the world than at current if you allied with Iran.

[minionofmidas]

Indeed, the Québécois were actually oppressed once.

As opposed to Scotland which was oppressed twice?

[minionofmidas]

He can't actually ban you, of course.

[minionofmidas]

I'm sure you can find such articles, but the claim is (for the short run) factually incorrect.

Whether the Irish situation pre 79 is desirable for Scotland... that is quite another question.

As to the EU - joining won't take a 'membership process' a la East Europe (since Scottish law obviously already fulfills the criteria), and the concept of some nonbritish government vetoing Scottish membership - also raised in the English press, of course - is exceedingly farfetched.

[minionofmidas]

Better Together's is here and Yes Scotland is here.

Far thicker Scottish accents in better together. Wonder why they chose a girl with such thin accent for the Yes campaign.

One of the problems Better Together face is the perception that they're anti Scottish, while yes Scotland have the opposite problem (the perception that they're anti english), and both alienate huge portions of the country. For instance, almost all "No" voters will still strongly support the Scottish football team, and the vast majority identify as Scottish before British

If things stood otherwise, the no's would not of course stand a chance in hell, so this is kind of a given from the polls.

[minionofmidas]

The Guardian writes:

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which only proves once again that The Guardian's opinion and knowledge of Catholics is stuck around 1688.

1868, more like.

That said, he's clearly the most influential of the names listed by the kipper.