Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[MaxQue]

To me, they are vaguely centrist, aiming a non-controversial government and aiming good management of the country.

[MaxQue]

Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour. 

As the main not-Labour party, some people which hate Labour vote for them, so that includes some right-wingers, even if that makes no sense ideologically.

You also have the right-wing and left-wing independantists which put that issue over policies (that's the core vote, in fact, logically).

[MaxQue]

Also, I don't think the comparison to Quebec is a good one. Its become a common meme now but the situations are so vastly different.

Indeed, I can actually understand the Quebecois accent

Our accent isn't so bad (well, except in a few very rural areas, but even I have difficulties, so...).

[MaxQue]

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.

A narrow loss would be fine, but they would run into the problem that the PQ has where they can't ever have a referendum unless they're confident they'll win as a decrease in the Yes% would be seen as a massive failure.

In Quebec, any Yes result over 40% wouldn't be seen as a massive failure. I suppose it would be similar in Scotland.

[MaxQue]

It would probably take at least 4-5 years for them to join the euro anyway if everything went off w/o a hitch (EU membership negotiations, then spending two years as part of the ERM II).

I fail to see how Scotland could both keep the pound and be part of ERM II.  Even if only as a temporary measure, the Scottish punnd would have to be independent of the pound sterling during any transition to the Euro unless Britain were to seek to join the Euro.

EU is always willing to bend its rules if needed.

And negociations shouldn't be long, since they don't need to adjust their laws to EU norms (they are already adjusted).

[MaxQue]

No comment on José Manuel Barroso's comments about an independent Scotland joining the EU?

Who cares? He is on his way out and plenty of European countries would do anything to annoy UK.

[MaxQue]

The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.

Xahar is right. To enter EU, you have to conform to various regulations, which are pre-defined. Logically, Scotland already respect all those regulations, given it's already subjected to those regulations.

[MaxQue]

The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.

Xahar is right. To enter EU, you have to conform to various regulations, which are pre-defined. Logically, Scotland already respect all those regulations, given it's already subjected to those regulations.

May be so but it is an irrelevant point. They would legally be a new member-state and so have to re-apply. Accession process would be lengthy even for a country like Scotland that adheres to all rules and regs. Dr. Barroso didn't say it would be "difficult" for no reason. All 28 EU member-states would have to agree and I think you'd at the very least have to persuade Spain.

Difficult, but not lenghty (the long part is all the regulations). Spain is so broke than it should be possible to buy it. And Barroso will be replaced later this year.

[MaxQue]

You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...

[MaxQue]

You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...

Interesting, 10 other EU countries are also out of the Eurozone and it hasn't done the UK much harm though I am a Lib Dem and so am in favour of an eventual switch to the Euro at the right time, rather than rushing things which can lead to disaster. The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.

The point is than you are saying than Scotland should "stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.", when UK is doing exactly the same with EU. Zanas and I didn't said that it was right or wrong, just than it's ironic than you are saying that.

[MaxQue]

It helps that the campaign is one party that isn't in the national government versus everyone else. It's a lot easier to be consistent that way. If you had two nationalist parties each paying an equal contribution and asking for an equal share of airtime, you'd get more inconsistencies.

Many countries having referendums decided to force parties to create united groups for refereranda (in Quebec, they are called umbrella committees).

[MaxQue]

If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.

[MaxQue]

Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

Well, as many independentist government, they stand for "good government".

[MaxQue]

Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

Gotcha. Well then, to take it a bit further: if Scotland does achieve independence, why should we expect the party to stay together as a large political force at all (given a few years)? Its raison d'être is to achieve Scottish independence; with that gone, with nothing to glue together the various factions, couldn't we expect the SNP to dissolve? Leftist SNP voters go to Scottish Labour or Scottish Socialists, conservatives go to Scottish Cons, liberals to Scottish Lib-Dem, and so on.

Obviously that's not at all what happened in Ireland, and I'm not familiar with the history there, but I'd imagine the circumstances are so different that any predictions of the SNP's future based on Fianna Fáil's history would be problematic.

I suppose than Liberal Democrats and Conservatives could rename themselves. Usually, independence is followed by a realignment of political parties.

[MaxQue]

Quote from njwes

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The history is indeed different. The SNP has always been a non-violent party. The Irish political system emerged from a War of Independence and a subsequent Civil War between the pro and anti treaty wings of the independence movement. Fianna Fáil were the part of the anti treaty side in the Civil War which, a few years later, took their seats in the democratic legislature of the 26 county state. 

Vote as you shot will not be the principle around which the Scottish political system will be organised.

Just look at the conservative Country folk who make up a lot of the base of the Parti Quebecois for a counter example. The PQ might be officially socialist, but it plays to those voters through cultural conservatism

1. The PQ isn't officially socialist and isn't socialist since the 90's, at least.
2. Rural =/ conservative, in Quebec. True in some areas, but false in some. (Northern Quebec rural areas are very similar to Northern Ontario rural areas, same for the urban areas).

[MaxQue]

edit by el caudillo: please post in English

Hash is this some joke I didn't get? There has never been a requirement in the ToS to write in English and we have had plenty of posts in German and Spanish + comments/sentences in a multitude of others languages.

I saw the message before the edit and the issue is than it was some jumbled and barely intelligible English.

[MaxQue]

Afleitch, could you edit the title so the full date is in the title please?

[MaxQue]

To summarise Sibboleth's explanation, Scotland gets 50%+1 because the British government has implicitly accepted those terms in Scotland and allowed a referendum, whereas the Scottish government has not done so for Shetland.

True. But the Parliament would still have to act to implement the referendum decision. As far as I understand, it has not committed to the exact shape of Scottish independence. It would be, let us say, interesting

I suppose you could put the rump statelets into Northern Ireland...

But, on a more serious note, the wording of the referendum is clear and accepted by both sides and would appear to preclude detachments of parts of Scotland. The UK recognises Scotland as a political entity in a manner that is not true for the Scottish Borders or Shetland. The Canadian federal government may earnestly desire to own northern Québec or it may be trolling, but Westminster doesn't want to commit anything to potential enclaves around Selkirk or Aberdeen, or expensive little island statelets. It would be a pretty brave government that tried to keep Scotland in the union after a Yes vote.

And I doubt very much than Selkirk or Aberdeen, even if opposed to independence, would prefer to stay in the UK without Scotland.

Wanting Scotland to stay in UK doesn't mean you want than your area splitting from Scotland in case of independence. It might, but, most likely, doesn't.

[MaxQue]

The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward?? 

By council.

[MaxQue]

When do the polls close?

10PM in UK, so, 5PM Eastern.

[MaxQue]

When do the polls close?

10PM in UK, so, 5PM Eastern.

That means 23:00 o'clock CEST? Wow, that's late...

UK polls are always open between 7:00-22:00.

[MaxQue]

I've got a question:

One person from Britain is called a Briton.
If you refer to the whole nation you say "the British".

What about Scotland?
One person is a Scot.
But what do you call the whole nation?
The Scottish? The Scots? The Scotch?

Scottish. Scots is the old language. Scotch is alcohol.

[MaxQue]

Another [small] game changer ?

https://twitter.com/andy_murray/status/512392618077323264

Or rather a set changer?

[MaxQue]

Thanks, MaxQue and politicus.
According to the Oxford dictionary, Scotch can also refer to the Scottish people, but it seems to be old-fashioned.
So, "the Scottish" is the common term, right?

Yes.