Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

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Just seen the coverage of the Yes event on News at 10.

Eugh, smug First Minister is smug.

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Yeah, I'm a fan of independent countries actually being...you know...independent.

You clearly understand this issue.

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http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-labour-dismisses-rebellion-1-2439472

"LABOUR chiefs say a rebellion among its grassroots members in favour of independence lacks “any real support” within party ranks.

A website has been launched called Labour for Independence, which is urging Scottish party leader Johann Lamont to allow members a vote on the constitutional question, with a view to shifting the party’s stance in favour of leaving the UK in the 2014 referendum.

Senior Labour figures say the website, launched by party member Allan Grogan, has attracted plentiful backing from SNP supporters. But the party
insists that members are free to bring policy suggestions before Labour conference."

Idiots.

Division and separation is so in line with democratic socialism.

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Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the (main) party of the right?

SNP, duh, just as today.

I thought apart from the Independence parts on their platform they were social democrats.

Are we talking about platforms or voter bases? This is a psephology forum. The SNP is the major rightwing party in Scotland just like Labour is the major leftwing one.
It's true though that the right is fissured enough (over class and national identity issues) that it's hard to see the SNP ever swallowing up the entirety of the remaining Tory and LD vote, and that there are also very many people in Scotland who would not ever vote Tory or LD but may vote either SNP or Labour - and have been voting SNP in Scottish and Labour in Westminster elections of late, due in part to the state of Scottish Labour.

The SNP is right-wing?

Only in the sense that they hoover up many Tories and LibDems as the main non-Labour party, but no way are they right-wing.

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It's worth noting that the SNP only got through 2007-2011 with the support (not quite confidence and supply, but close enough) of the Greens, the Tories and the LibDems...

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Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour. 

New Labour's move rightwards to such an extent complicated everything (you have the same questions over the Liberal Democrats nationally), and allowed centrist/liberals to be seen as the left opposition.

Though only by privileged airheads* and - much more understandably - people focussing on Blair's disastrous foreign policy course. Which would naturally include a lot of foreign spectators.

*yeah, that's what I tend to think anybody so focussed on social liberalism issues as to completely ignore economics is. Not that Blair's economic course was actually leftist, of course, but the LDs certainly never overtook Labour on the left on that front.

Yes, 2005-2010 LibDems generally were students from Tory families who were too ashamed to realise they were rightists. Yes.

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That sounds a little too indulgent in self-delusion, tbh. I'd sooner class students voting Liberal as those New Labour alienated, than Tories in disguise.

I was mostly joking.

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And what would the remaining United Kingdom be called afterwards, that's what I want to know.

The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland?

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From nearly a week ago, but I only just found this:

Scottish Independence Gains Support With Help of Young

By Peter Woodifield - Feb 13, 2013 8:44 AM ET

Support among voters in Scotland for becoming an independent country is rising, with a majority of young voters now ready to quit the U.K., according to a poll published today.

Backing for independence rose to 34 percent of respondents, while those in favor of retaining the status quo fell to 55 percent, according to the Ipsos MORI survey published in today’s London-based Times newspaper. The 21-percentage-point gap compares with 28 points in October and 20 points in June, based on reports from the same pollster.

“Our latest poll shows a boost in support for those campaigning for Scottish independence, who will take some encouragement from these findings,” Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said on the pollster’s website. “Having said that, support for independence is behind where it was a year ago.”

Good job we don't vote then (See the AV referendum).

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Scotland would need to reapply to join the EU as a new country, says Latvia's foreign minister. Latvia will be leading the EU at that time. It would be interesting though, would the rest of the UK need to reapply as well.

I can only think of an example where a border was dissolved, not a new one established (the GDR).

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Tavish Scott wants home rule for Shetland if Scotland leaves the UK.

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Tavish Scott wants home rule for Shetland if Scotland leaves the UK.

Why do you consider that a bad thing? It would be natural for both the Orkney Islands and Shetland to have home rule since they are distinct communities. In the case of Shetland its quite far from mainland Scotland as well.

Nooo, I just thought it quite ironic. This referendum's just becoming more of a joke.

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Miliband at ScotsLab conference: "Let the Tories try to divide our society, let the SNP try to divide our country."

One hypothetical I'm thinking about though for is Yes wins, how does Labour divide itself up? Does it have a Sinn Fein kinda thing with the same party existing on both sides of the border?

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You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...

Interesting, 10 other EU countries are also out of the Eurozone and it hasn't done the UK much harm though I am a Lib Dem and so am in favour of an eventual switch to the Euro at the right time, rather than rushing things which can lead to disaster. The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.

The point is than you are saying than Scotland should "stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.", when UK is doing exactly the same with EU.

All member states are guilty of this, we're just better at it.

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I think the post-war elections which would've had different results would be 1950, 1964, 1974 and 2010 (Tory maj).

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I couldn't see it happening, it'd be seen as an outrage and, quite frankly, it'd prove the nats right about Westminster.

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I couldn't see it happening, it'd be seen as an outrage...

If we're talking actual blocking of independence in the event of a 'Yes' vote, then, sure. But the process of decoupling would take a while: Scotland isn't voting on whether or not to declare UDI.

Isn't the date of secession set for sometime in 2016 should Yes win?

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The real constitutional crisis would come if we have EdM elected in 2015 with a 40ish seat lead...

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In turn, the Conservatives would ditch Cameron and the Lib Dems, initiate an early election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, and run on an English nationalist, hardline-negotiator platform. If the economy keeps doing well, who's to say how big a majority they could get by bashing Salmond, Scottish Labour and the two Eds?

I highly doubt it'll be Scottish Labour or the Eds who'll be blamed if Scotland goes.

If anything, it'd just hit home the message that the Tories are for some people, but not others and are only willing to govern for certain people in certain parts of the country. A country of 5 million people is openly considering burning their bridges with their 300 year old union in no small part because they're not happy with (and have felt victimised by) the Conservative Party.

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Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

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The Pope has joined the list of big names (Obama, Hillary... JK Rowling) who've expressed doubt in the Salmond project this week.

Watch the SNP try and deal with this. Should be interesting.

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A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.

Aha.

Salmond would be shouting from the rooftops about this at the tiniest sniff of evidence.

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So seems like the No is headed to a 60/40 win. While I think this would probably be the right choice for Scotland, I must say I'm a bit disappointed, because a secession would have been really fun.

For politicos, yes. For actual British people, no.

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edit by el caudillo: please post in English

#WhyImVotingUKIP

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Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...