Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Phony Moderate]

If Cameron wants Scotland to stay in the union, he should publicly endorse independence.

[Phony Moderate]

Just a thought - if Labour were still in power at Westminster, this situation would be....somewhat more interesting, wouldn't it?

[Phony Moderate]

Funny how celebrities here, when they publicly voice their views, often endorse right-leaning causes. Remember those numpties who threatened to flee the country in 1997?

That said, there are actually a few in this batch that I like. Sad.

[Phony Moderate]

Maybe, but the ones who express their opinions are often right-wing. More so than in the U.S., anyway.

The Better Together campaign is certainly one of the most conservative campaigns in recent history. Its main narrative appears to be 'Let's not break-up our precious 300-year union....oh and its not economically viable". Very little about making the United Kingdom a better, more just place, despite the fact that Scotland is a centre-left country. If Better Together had run a campaign that reflected Scotland's values and ideals, they could have achieved a 70-30 victory. As it is, 60-40 is probably the best that they can hope for.

[Phony Moderate]

That's another tactical error by Better Together - ignoring that a solid third or so of the Scottish population have supported independence since the early 80s and implying that the idea was fringe until 2007. The break-up of the union isn't anymore solely Salmond's campaign/idea than the preservation of the union is Darling's.

[Phony Moderate]

Apparently a polling organization is about to release a Yes lead...but which polling organization it is is quite important.

[Phony Moderate]

Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

[Phony Moderate]

So Brown seems to be taking over Better Together. Not sure that's a good idea from their POV; the SNP majority in 2011, as afleitch pointed out some time ago, was a delayed reaction to the Brown government.

[Phony Moderate]

So how is the counting process going to work, when will it actually take place and will there be an exit poll?

[Phony Moderate]

Keystone Phil ---- this is about the only issue that you and I will be united on.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov well/badly ratings for three Westminster leaders in Scotland (these are internals, but still):

Cameron - 27/68
Miliband - 19/74
Clegg - 10/85

EDIT: Oh yes, and the internals also show a 45/48 Yes/No split.

[Phony Moderate]

We definitely need at least a couple more polls given that the weekend's were quite inconclusive. Strange that the polling companies (or, rather, their clients) are still more interested in GE2015 despite this being arguably more significant.

Edit: Ah, there are five due out tomorrow so PB informs me.

[Phony Moderate]

As pointed out elsewhere, the question of the campaign has been "Could Scotland be an independent country?". The question on the ballot paper is "Should Scotland be an independent country?".

[Phony Moderate]

ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.

Not so; anything from a ~20 point no win to a ~10 point yes win is within the realms of possibility imo. This is probably the most unpredictable vote in UK (ha ha) history.

[Phony Moderate]

So today's Yes shares are 47, 48 and 49 - exactly the same average as yesterday's. Quite amazing, really.

Sorry if I asked this already.  But what time will the polls close? And will there be exit polling allowed?

10PM over here, 3AM (I think) over there. No exit polling.

[Phony Moderate]

Remarkable levels of activity today. I haven't seen anything even close to the level of political activity that's happening today. Almost every conversation I hear in the street today is about independence.

So today's Yes shares are 47, 48 and 49 - exactly the same average as yesterday's. Quite amazing, really.

Sorry if I asked this already.  But what time will the polls close? And will there be exit polling allowed?

10PM over here, 3AM (I think) over there. No exit polling.

It's 5PM Eastern Time, so you won't even have to have a late night in the US.

Oops, brain fart.