Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Antonio the Sixth]

So seems like the No is headed to a 60/40 win. While I think this would probably be the right choice for Scotland, I must say I'm a bit disappointed, because a secession would have been really fun.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Amusingly, a yes to Yes meant, that Scots were no Scots any longer, because they were not aware of their wallets...

edit by el caudillo: please post in English

http://youtu.be/ORj3wImDhLk

Hahahahaha, it never gets old.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, Yougov is a weird pollster and a 2 point margin is statistically equivalent to a tie. We're gonna need to see more polls like that before saying it's happening.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company

That doesn't mean they are wrong though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No back ahead with YouGov

52-48 from 49-51.

Well, I guess it was fun while it lasted.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

While I agree it's unfortunate that 51% of Scots could force the other 49% to become independent, it would be way more unfair to let 41% of Scots force the other 59% to stay united with Britain. Simple majority is the best system because minimizes the number of unhappy voters.

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like Nate Silver has also weighed in on this same debate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).

Yes, but these voters probably are the reason why it's somewhat close in the first place. There's no indication that these people haven't been accounted for in polling (British polls don't use LV screens AFAIK).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I understood the mistake, no trouble.

And anyway, I really hope you're right!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it's ridiculous that there are still countries that don't hold elections on Sundays. This is so obviously preferable in every way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

While I agree it's unfortunate that 51% of Scots could force the other 49% to become independent, it would be way more unfair to let 41% of Scots force the other 59% to stay united with Britain. Simple majority is the best system because minimizes the number of unhappy voters.

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

Perhaps then 50% +1 of all registered voters would make even more sense?

50% of registered voters is really a lot though. Even with 90% turnout, that would still mean an effective threshold of 55.6%, which is quite enormous. And really, when turnout is so high, those 10% who don't go to the polls probably wouldn't have any clue how they will vote. It's not like this sort of voter demobilization really determines the outcome. I think a 40-45% threshold is pretty reasonable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The biggest loser in all this though is Ed Milliband.

Really, dude? This is probably the exact same thing people would say if Yes had won (and the rationale in that case would make only marginally more sense).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another interesting fact:

Even if there were 100% turnout (all 4.2 Mio. people voting), the "Yes"-side would have needed 80% among those who didn't vote Thursday just to break even and make it a 50-50 race ...

Or in other words, that it would have taken a 93.5% turnout with all additional voters supporting Yes to make it a 50-50 race.