Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[YL]

Well I imagine the Scots wouldn't be so vindictive as to impose border controls or tariffs on their more southerly cousins or vice-versa, so the economic consequences would be fairly minor.  (What's a "strategic resource," anyway?  Something that makes it easier to fight wars?  I'm all for breaking up all those...).  The oil will be gone in c. 20 years or so anyway.  I'm also biased in favor of smaller countries, which as a general rule tend to be rather better-run.  Also, the small advantage gets larger if Wales or even possibly the North follow.  Main disadvantage is that the nicest-looking national flag gets way uglier (maybe the Scots will give up some random island to keep St. Andrew's cross in there, but that's doubtful).

I'd be surprised if the rest of the UK didn't just keep the union flag, not just because it would be made much uglier, but also for various reasons the rump of the UK will be trying to show that not much has changed (e.g UN Security Council) so will keep the flag the same.

I suppose we could always argue that the St. Andrew's cross represents Berwick on Tweed...

[YL]

He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.

Except, of course, for the fact that it wouldn't. It's just a delusion of gin-addled Torygraph readers. Labour is more than capable of winning a majority of seats in England and did so as recently as... er... 2005. Hey, even in October 1974 (a narrow victory but still a proper victory) Labour won more seats in England than the Tories.

Thats a good point, but Blair was a political phenomenon (back when he was popular) and can be interpreted as the exception, that proves the rule. English Labour would be in trouble without Scotland and
permanent majorities are not unheard of. Bavarian CSU is a good example where the SPD was unable to break their hold on power for decades despite being centrist.

In addition to what Al has said, Blair wasn't that popular any more by 2005.

It would make a difference, but a small one compared with what a lot of people seem to think.  There just aren't enough Scottish seats, and they're not that monolithically Labour.

[YL]

How reliable would you say this 53-47 poll is ? I only recall having seen large No majorities as of yet. Is there something in particular, in your opinion, that may have shifted so much of the public, or is this just a fluke ?

My initial reaction is that it may well be a fluke, but to see whether there's any support for it from future polls.

There are definite concerns about the weighting.  As afleitch says, they undersampled 18-24 year olds and so heavily upweighted them, something which increases margin of error.  It appears that in this poll the sample of young voters (especially, but not only, among 18-24 year olds) was much more pro-independence than in previous polls; in fact among 18-24 year olds support for independence appeared to be up 33%!

See John Curtice's article at http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/01/icm-poll-shows-biggest-swing-yet/

[YL]

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.

[YL]

Not having a currency union wouldn't stop an independent Scotland using the pound unilaterally.  Montenegro isn't in the Eurozone but uses the Euro.

[YL]

No comment on José Manuel Barroso's comments about an independent Scotland joining the EU?

[YL]

Has the intervention by the ‘Gang of Three’ on the matter of a Scottish currency helped the Yes campaign? Survation’s new poll have Yes up 6 to 38% and No down 5 to 47% with 16% Don’t knows. The changes are from their last poll in January which came hot on the heels of ICM’s poll showing a narrow gap. Unfortunately Survation also changed their methodology which used to weight turnout against Westminster voting intention(!) so it’s difficult to confirm if there is correlation.

According to John Curtice (here) the previous weighting was on recalled 2010 Westminster vote, and the new one is on recalled 2011 Holyrood vote.  He says that evidence from other polling companies points to the latter being more reliable.

While various questions about weighting methods and the like cloud the picture a bit, I think the recent polls are giving reasons for Yes supporters to become more optimistic, though I still think they're unlikely to actually win.

[YL]

More polls:

ICM Yes 37 (no change) No 49 (+5) undecided 14 (-5) (NB changes to methodology)

Panelbase Yes 37 (no change) No 47 (-2) undecided 16 (+2)

[YL]

Anyone watching the debate?

[YL]

The 52-48 was Panelbase (actually No 46 Yes 42 Don't Know 12).  Panelbase generally give the best figures for Yes.

Yesterday YouGov released a poll saying No 51 Yes 38 Don't Know 11.  Though this doesn't look good for Yes compared with the other polls, it's actually the best figure YouGov has ever given them.

[YL]

This debate seems to be mainly Salmond and Darling shouting over each other.

[YL]

Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

[YL]

Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...

He wasn't particularly shouty in either debate. I'll take the 51-49 to no voting intention with ICM. It's a good start.

I didn't see the first debate, but he was shouty last night.  But Darling was aggressive too (all that pointing) so Salmond didn't lose out from it.  Darling came across as obsessed with the currency issue, bringing it up at every opportunity, and the audience weren't impressed.

From an English non-Tory perspective an awful lot of what Salmond says is more an argument for having a better government in Westminster than for Scottish independence.  So it surprises me that you seem so enthusiastic about his campaign.

NB the 51-49 is from ICM's post-debate poll, which was a sample of those who watched the debate, not of the electorate.

[YL]

Apparently a polling organization is about to release a Yes lead...but which polling organization it is is quite important.

The rumour (at least the one I saw) related to Panelbase, but I still haven't seen any evidence of the actual poll.  It was supposedly going to be published in today's Daily Record (which is being guest edited by Alex Salmond; Darling did yesterday's).

[YL]

Possibly dumb speculative question, but how much could this latest development possibly be due to anti-UKIP backlash?

It might just be to do with the quirks of YouGov's algorithms.

Personally, if I lived in Scotland the threat of UKIP, their influence on the Tories and the possibility of the UK leaving the EU would indeed be an argument in favour of "Yes".  So I suppose it might be helping the Yes side a bit, but I doubt it's a major factor.

[YL]

That TNS poll has a weirdly high number of undecideds compared with other recent polls: the full figures are No 39 Yes 38 Don't Know 23.

[YL]

The extent of the panic makes me suspect that Better Together have private polling which is at least as bad for them as the public polls.

[YL]

So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Of the last four polls, two (YouGov and TNS) have shown striking moves to Yes, and two (Survation and Panelbase) have shown little or no change on their previous polls.  So what's really going on is a bit of a mystery.  However, all four show either more or less a tie or No narrowly ahead.

According to Anthony Wells (UKPollingReport) there's another YouGov poll coming out for Friday, an ICM poll by the weekend, and probably also another Panelbase poll at the weekend.  These may start to clear things up, or they may not...

[YL]

I think if Shetland actually wanted to separate from an independent Scotland and remain in the UK then there would be a case for saying that they were sufficiently geographically and culturally distinct and accepting that.

However, I haven't seen any evidence that this would actually be the case, just a bit of trolling speculation by the No campaign.  It might be more plausible that Shetland would want to be a small independent or semi-independent state in its own right.

As for Dumfriesshire or Roxburghshire, the question is entirely hypothetical: they're very much part of Scotland and will want to stay with it in the event of independence even if they didn't vote for it.

[YL]

Survation: No 49 Yes 42 Don't Know 9 (54-46 excluding Don't Knows).

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Better-Together-Voting-Intention-Tables.pdf

(Poll was carried out for the No campaign)

[YL]

Out of curiosty have you visited Shetland or have relatives there?

No, I just picked on it because it's the most geographically distinct (and probably the one most often mentioned by the people who suggest some areas might want to stay in the UK).

[YL]

At this point a Yes victory would be pretty bad for the pollsters, collectively.

[YL]

Ipsos-MORI figures including the don't knows: Yes 49, No 47

Other way round: No still ahead.

(Details here.)

[YL]

*SCOTTISH VOTE: 47% YES, 53% NO IN SURVATION POLL
*SCOTTISH VOTE: 48% YES, 52% NO IN YOUGOV POLL

The Survation one was N48-Y43 including undecideds.  The YouGov one had a large sample size (over 3000); I haven't seen their figures with undecideds included.

[YL]

Yes, the Catholic thing was mentioned on here at the time (on the results thread, not this one), but it's good to see it confirmed that it appears in the data.  In most areas, of course, we only have authority-level data, but it was also observed in the results thread that in the more local data released by North Lanarkshire council Airdrie was more No than Coatbridge.  (For those who don't know, these are neighbouring towns but Airdrie is very Protestant and Coatbridge very Catholic.)

The socio-economic factors make sense as well; I noticed at the time that in the Glasgow area the middle class suburban districts (East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire) were quite strongly No while the rest of the area tended to Yes.

I think there was a tendency in the media to expect that areas with SNP MPs would be strongest for Yes, but it didn't play out like that (barring Dundee East, I suppose).