Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

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Of course, Scotland was no less imperialist than England.

Exactly, there is a reason Glasgow was known as the second city of the British empire.

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Its worth noting as well ,that for all their lack of seats in Westminster there are actually quite a lot of influential Scottish Tories parachuted into safe English seats like Rifkind, Fox, Gove etc ( Even Cameron has got quite a bit of Scottish heritage) so Scottish Tories have a disproportional influence. These sort of people as well as some idealistic unionists (some politicians do actually have beliefs) would be for a no vote even if it does give the Tories an electoral advantage.

Although the impact of Scotland leaving on politics at least is overrated for the reasons that Sibboleth mentioned, and I also agree with wormyguy that a permanent majority wouldn't exist anyway because Labour would be able to adapt to it.

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And never in the entire history of the party would the Democrats have lost an election if New York weren't a state.  But you'd have to be a joker if you thought that wouldn't be a massive disadvantage for them.

So what you're suggesting is that the Tories ought (if they knew what was good for them) support breaking up the UK (and lose all kind of important strategic and economic resources) in order to secure would would be, in practice, a comparatively minor electoral advantage? Makes perfect sense, though only after a few glasses of gin and a long stare at the attractive woman who's picture always graces the front of the paper.

Well I imagine the Scots wouldn't be so vindictive as to impose border controls or tariffs on their more southerly cousins or vice-versa, so the economic consequences would be fairly minor.  (What's a "strategic resource," anyway?  Something that makes it easier to fight wars?  I'm all for breaking up all those...).  The oil will be gone in c. 20 years or so anyway.  I'm also biased in favor of smaller countries, which as a general rule tend to be rather better-run.  Also, the small advantage gets larger if Wales or even possibly the North follow.  Main disadvantage is that the nicest-looking national flag gets way uglier (maybe the Scots will give up some random island to keep St. Andrew's cross in there, but that's doubtful).

I'd be surprised if the rest of the UK didn't just keep the union flag, not just because it would be made much uglier, but also for various reasons the rump of the UK will be trying to show that not much has changed (e.g UN Security Council) so will keep the flag the same.

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How many national parliaments have actually had a permanent majority for one party or another? I know sub national legislatures like the Bavarian state house, West Virginia, most of the deep south etc have had one party rule but I don't think that is really the same thing.

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I just realized that unless the Lib Dems do something really crazy this is going to happen before the next UK election. Hmmm that could shake things up, wonder what the situation would be if there was a majority for Labour but the majority disappeared if Scotland left.

And I'd oppose this.

If yes won Scotland wouldn't leave straight away because the exact terms won't have been decided, so there would be a grace period of sorts. But in the long term there would have to be a new election called because Labour couldn't govern and the Conservatives taking power after having "lost" the last election would make them deeply unpopular. I'd guess that if Labour did have a slim majority they would call a new election once the negotiations  had finished. Not that any of that scenario is likely though.

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Quick ?, do you think the Olympics has had any influence on this at all?  Is the Union Jack or more feelings of "Britishness" gaining any traction among some?

It's kind of late, but I've only just seen the relevant poll: http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/scottish-independence-rivals-quick-off-blocks-to-claim-olympic-gains-1-2464425

Basically it will have no effect whatsoever, especially because the referendum is another 2 years away, by which time everyone will have forgotten about the olympics. But I think it does show that even if Scotland won the world cup, or Britain swept every medal at the athletic world championships there would be little effect on the vote, because sport doesn''t really matter when it comes to politics in the UK.

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Well, that seems okay.

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If Scotland does get independence, then historical titles will be the last thing on the rest of the UK's mind. I'd assume Westminster will be trying desperately to preserve some sort of continuity, so I expect them to plump for the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. For the same reason I don't think we'll be seeing any changes to the flag.

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Scottish Independence is pointless!

01. Keep the pound
02. Keep the Queen
03. Keep the EU (so open border with England)

So we have the same head of state as England, the same currency as England, we keep an open border with England but we lose a huge say in the world, by breaking up the UK.

Who in their right mind would vote for that, seriously?

I'm from Scotland, I'm 18, so I will be 19 or 20 depending on the month and I will vote no on pointless independence.

Firstly, welcome to the forum! It's good to see another scot on the board, by my count you're our third.

Also, you've definitely got a point about the pound, but the monarchy is neither here nor there, because it's got no real power anymore. In fact, were Scotland to become independent I'm sure we would go down the  Australia and Canada route, where we are completely separate but share a head of state.

They'll move to CET and screw up the rail timetables

The Scots or the English?

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Salmond claims, and I'm not sure how true this is, that countries like Spain will want Scotland in the EU as quickly as possible because so many of their fisherman use Scottish waters, so economic self interest will trump political grandstanding.

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As you know I wear a big 'Yes' hat

However I can say there is deep, deep concern within the No camp right now; they aren't speaking to or briefing each other yet. And Yes haven't started spending their money. In the last few weeks when faces need to be there and messages need to be hammered home that may make a difference.

Yeah, Better Together are pretty shambolic.

This is obviously anecdotal, but of my friends, and I live in what you'd expect to be the unionist stronghold of Edinburgh, 14 "like" Yes Scotland, and 13 "like" Better Together. Also the pro independence people are far more vocal.

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ICM have it 52-48 no. Yes leads amongst those born in Scotland.

That's only among those who've decided, it's 42-39 with undecided's included. Either way, independence looks like a definite possibility now.

For those who are interested, here's the poll: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125

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There is no chance of the rest of the UK changing the flag if Scotland votes yes.

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Both Better Together and Yes Scotland have begun obnoxiously running adverts everywhere, (at this point combined they're before about every second youtube video, and my friends were complaining they're at the cinema as well) for those who want to see them, Better Together's is here and Yes Scotland is here.

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Better Together's is here and Yes Scotland is here.

Far thicker Scottish accents in better together. Wonder why they chose a girl with such thin accent for the Yes campaign.

One of the problems Better Together face is the perception that they're anti Scottish, while yes Scotland have the opposite problem (the perception that they're anti english), and both alienate huge portions of the country. For instance, almost all "No" voters will still strongly support the Scottish football team, and the vast majority identify as Scottish before British, so better together can't be seen as anti Scottish. Similarly, most people will have English relatives or friends, so any campaign that seems anti English will not work either.

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Of my 16 facebook friends who like Yes Scotland, there is one English, one Irish and one Lithuanian born, plus quite a few other second generation immigrants, and Better Together is roughly the same. So, yeah, the way the campaign is at the moment there isn't much of Scottish/English/Other divide, but due to the nature of the debate there is still a danger that the yes campaign could get painted as sort of "Braveheart", which is why their advert doesn't have a strong accent. I think the same is true in reverse for Better Together.

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That's terrible news for Ed Milliband.

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I'm fairly certain that most celebrities are left wingers, or at least liberals.

Also, I don't really think independence can be broken up as a left and right issue.

Besides, weren't most of the 1997 bunch utter nonentities?

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For those who don't know, this is the link everyone is talking about.

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I guess that graph is perfect proof that if you want to show a trend in polling you need to use the same company.

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Two new polls. No still led, but gap down despite the Yes campaign being 'finished' last week.

52-48
55-45

There is a rule in Scottish politics. As tempting as it is, don't make an election about Alex Salmond.

Obviously that's with the undecided voters taken out. Here is the 55-45 one. I can't find the 52-48 one.

The interesting thing about the scotsman one is that both sides increased their percentage- The undecideds dropped by 7% BT gained 2% and YS gained by 4% (rounding, presumably).

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Impossible to watch as someone lodged a copyright claim on it.

I can not be the only one to appreciate the irony of Ernest complaining about the zealous implementation of copyright law.

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As afleitch alluded to a while back, the problem with polling here is we're in uncharted waters, so there's really no way of knowing, except in a very general sense, what's happening.

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Yes Scotland have just informed me, via a newspaper that came through the door, that the person who plays a GP in River City, Taggart and Michael Stewart are voting yes. I'm now convinced.

It's been a while since we had anything from better together, though.

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Bloody hell. Obvious caveats about polling, especially in this race, but still. Blood hell

Oh, and among my friends it is uncool to be a unionist, although that's also true to a lesser extent of enthusiastic yes voters (the sort who filibuster facebook) as well.