Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Zanas]

How reliable would you say this 53-47 poll is ? I only recall having seen large No majorities as of yet. Is there something in particular, in your opinion, that may have shifted so much of the public, or is this just a fluke ?

[Zanas]

I am becoming a bit annoyed at the pick and choose attitude that the SNP seem to have, if they want to become independent then go the whole way stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.

This coming from a UK citizen is SWEET and HILARIOUS.

[Zanas]

You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

[Zanas]

The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.

For the record, Malta and Cyprus are also islands. And Malta is in Schengen. Iceland is also an island, in Schengen, while not being in the EU.

This has nothing to do with anything.

[Zanas]

I wear a similar, though probably smaller, hat : in my family we count how many countries each of us has set foot onto. This would bring me from 53 to 54 instantly, without effort !

[Zanas]

Tell me this news was published one week ago on April 1st ?

[Zanas]

Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

[Zanas]

Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

Every polling firm is messing with their adjustments with each new poll. That's what happens when the picture becomes clearing in the final few weeks of an election...or less clear.

That... was a rhetorical question. You know.

[Zanas]

This whole thing reminds me of our 2005 European Constitution referendum, only the outsider camp's lead (the NO in our case) came in quite a bit earlier. Even so, if three other polls show the Yes with more than a 2-pt lead before election day, I will believe in secession. Otherwise, it's still Lean No structurally.

Oh and momentum do exist. It's not a guaranteed thing, but in the mentioned example of France 2005, or more recently Canada 2011, polling had a great influence on the final results, IMO. This might just be another occurrence of this.