Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

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Seems very much like an outlier. Will be interesting to see whether future polls confirm this trend.

There looks to be a shortage of polls on this referendum; according to that site, the last one was relased almost two months ago.

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What would independence mean for the Scottish MPs in Westminister?

Would they still get to run in the 2015 election? And if so, would they get removed at the moment Scotland actually became an independent state?

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Seems like the momentum of the independence campaign has stalled. The two polls for May show a "no" lead of 10 and 12 percentage points.  http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum

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So, could this make it close after all - or was the "no" lead too large?

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Celtic must win today. Independence depends on it.

Their only remaining chance now is Andy Murray winning the US open.

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Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

I bet both Cameron and Miliband are pretty nervous right now.

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change08: Yes, I can obviously see that they are still in the lead. But this still shows a pretty massive shift from previous YouGov polls. It's clear which side has the momentum at the moment.

How reliable is YouGov, btw? And is there any type of poll aggregator site for this referendum? Couldn't find any good ones (though I didn't look very hard for it).

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Thanks, Al!

Looking at the Wikipedia page, there has been surprisingly few polls in the last few weeks, particularly considering the importance of this vote. Will be very interesting to see what the next ICM poll shows.

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Does anyone have an explanation as to why the polls have shifted so dramatically in the last few weeks (at least if we go by YouGov polling)? Why did the "no"lead start to sink just now?Surely the Salmond-Darling debates can't have been such a big factor.

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Yougov have Yes leading by 1.

That is terrible news for Ed Miliband.





(And for once the meme proves completely true!)

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This is utterly ridiculous. A 24 (!) point swing, in less than a month.

By this pace, the Scots will vote for independence in a landslide. This turn of events is quite stunning - two weeks ago, no one would have given the "yes" side a serious chance (other than hacks ), now they're in the lead.

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This is looking pretty damn bad for the "no" side...

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PMQs were cancelled so the Big Three can go to Scotland to campaign? And that's supposed to help the No campaign?

Miliband's one thing, but Cameron and Clegg should be as far away from Scotland as they physically can be.

Agreed. Surely Cameron isn't stupid enough to go there?

Nigel Farage is going as well, to a UKIP rally in Scotland on September 12. Not a good idea.

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According to Ukpollingreport neither side has gotten a more than 54% support in any of the last 8 polls. In these polls, both sides have a ceiling of 54% and a floor of 46%. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8984#comments

The average of these polls is

YES: 48,6%  --------- NO: 51,4%            

Can't get much closer than this.  

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The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

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It's amazing how every poll shows such a narrow No lead. You'd expect MoE would have a fluke Yes lead or No at 55 or something.

I found that a bit weird too. 4/5 polls this week have shown the exact same result, 52-48, while the fifth had 51-49. Particularly considering that the polls used to diverge a lot for this election.

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The fundamental thing is that no polling company has got a true hold on how this thing is going to turn out...

Which makes it, at the very least, an adventure in psephology.

True. I wouldn't be very surprised if the polls turn out to be way off - in either direction.

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So, "a generation" apparently means three years.