Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[Mr. Morden]

Here is Politico on the Rubio story:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/06/romney-rubios-being-vetted-126681.html

In brief, both ABC News and the WaPo reported that Rubio wasn't being vetted for VP.  Then the media started asking Romney about that, and he refused to comment.  Then a few hours later, Romney reversed course, and decided to confirm that Rubio is in fact being vetted.  Here is what Romney now says:

There are only two people in this country who know who are being vetted and who are not: And that's Beth Myers and myself. And Iknow Beth well. She doesn't talk to anybody. The story was entirely false. Marco Rubio is being thoroughly vetted as part of our process."

Politico suggests that the campaign was forced to say on the record that Rubio was being vetted, because they don't want to risk doing harm among Hispanic voters.  But who knows.

Meanwhile, Pawlenty fever sweeps the land.  Race42012's supposed Romney insider source predicts that Pawlenty will be Romney's choice for veep:

http://race42012.com/2012/06/19/the-race-4-2012-rumor-mill-final-2012-gop-veepstakes-edition/

And Politico does a story on why Pawlenty is ascendent in the veepstakes:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77619.html

Most amusing detail from that story: Pawlenty is a regular guy because he drives his own car:

In contrast to some of their higher-maintenance surrogates, the plain-spoken Pawlenty travels with no entourage — not even the “body guy” that even most House members travel with. Often, a Romney campaign volunteer meets him when his plane lands. But at an appearance for Romney in North Carolina recently, he rented his own car and drove himself to and from the airport. The local reporters were shocked when they followed him out to his car and watched him drive himself away.

Anyway, the article does a good job of presenting the case for Pawlenty.  I'm starting to lean that way in my own predictions, for the record.  I could definitely see Pawlenty getting the nod.

Not only have Romney and Pawlenty developed an easy bond when they travel together, but their wives — Ann Romney and Mary Pawlenty — have developed a genuine friendship that has surprised some campaign insiders.

Romney has made clear to his closest advisers that the vice presidential pick will be his call alone. So the Pawlenty momentum could end abruptly if the candidate decides he needs to head in a different direction. But right now, a lot of the talk internally is about Pawlenty — how he checks most, if not all, of the most important boxes and how other possible contenders do not.

This caveat needs to be aired for every veep story: Beth Myers, who is leading the search effort, and Romney are the only two who know the nitty-gritty details of where things are headed. But the chatter among other Romney insiders provides a number of clues as to who’s up, who’s down and who’s probably out.

[Mr. Morden]

In other news, I'm seeing more and more stories discussing the possibility of Romney naming his running mate in July, rather than waiting until August.  It might happen.  Particularly if it's someone boring like Pawlenty or Portman, who you're not expecting to get a big bounce from anyway, the timing doesn't matter as much, so you might as well get it over with, and have someone else to help you campaign and raise money.

The Olympics is July 27 - August 12.  So if the announcement is being made in July, I guess it would probably be mid-July.  I doubt it would happen a week or less before the Olympics.

[Mr. Morden]

CBS has this to say about the short list:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57456927-503544/whos-still-in-the-running-to-be-romneys-running-mate/

Sources tell CBS News Chief Political Correspondent Jan Crawford that Rubio is unlikely to be Romney's choice in the end. Crawford reports that, according to the Romney campaign, Rubio is a long-shot as a first-term U.S. senator and that Ohio Sen. Rob Portman or former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty would be more likely choices.

They also link to a video showing Ayotte denying that she's been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting.  (Her earlier comment on this seemed more ambiguous, because the quote was truncated.)

So, for the record, the list of people who've said that they have *not* been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting info, who have not ended up backtracking (so far):

Ayotte
Burr
Bush
Daniels
Haley
Huckabee
McDonnell
Santorum

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

CBS has this to say about the short list:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57456927-503544/whos-still-in-the-running-to-be-romneys-running-mate/

Sources tell CBS News Chief Political Correspondent Jan Crawford that Rubio is unlikely to be Romney's choice in the end. Crawford reports that, according to the Romney campaign, Rubio is a long-shot as a first-term U.S. senator and that Ohio Sen. Rob Portman or former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty would be more likely choices.

They also link to a video showing Ayotte denying that she's been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting.  (Her earlier comment on this seemed more ambiguous, because the quote was truncated.)

So, for the record, the list of people who've said that they have *not* been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting info, who have not ended up backtracking (so far):

Ayotte
Burr
Bush
Daniels
Haley
Huckabee
McDonnell
Santorum

Wait, did Thune un-deny? I remember he was vehemently saying that they weren't vetting him a while ago.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, he did un-deny.  His new line is:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-06-13/john-thune-romney-vice-president/55586686/1

"There's a process. We don't talk about the process"

His initial denial was just a couple of days after the Romney campaign started sending out questionnaires to the candidates, so it's possible they just hadn't gotten to him yet.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Yes, he did un-deny.  His new line is:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-06-13/john-thune-romney-vice-president/55586686/1

"There's a process. We don't talk about the process"

His initial denial was just a couple of days after the Romney campaign started sending out questionnaires to the candidates, so it's possible they just hadn't gotten to him yet.

Ah, OK. Thanks.

[milhouse24]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/romneys-great-utah-adventure-the-guest-list-and-schedule-leaks-out/

Rubio's not going to the fundraiser, which means he realizes he won't be picked (or considered).  I don't think Rubio even wants to give up his financial information to future campaign staff rivals in 2016.  Its a lose-lose scenario for him to go through with the vetting. 

The real VP pick will be at this fundraiser getting face time with Romney.  I think the finalists will be Pawlenty, Portman, and Thune.  I'm really surprised Thune is getting no media coverage, but maybe thats just what he wants.  I feel in the end, it will be Portman because Ohio is a must-win.

[GLPman]

Yeah, it's looking increasingly like Rubio is out of consideration.

[Progressive Realist]

Pawlenty?

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Pawlenty?

He's coming.

[RogueBeaver]

No surprise if true.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/303798/ryan-being-vetted-vp-robert-costa

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Rubio is an interesting public figure, no doubt.  But the VP pick?  No.  Romney will pick someone who will be able to step into the Presidency if necessary, and be an able President.  Rubio hardly fits that requirement at this time.

I'm telling you, the pick is going to be Rob Portman.  He has the experience, the capability, and the smarts, and he even looks Vice Presidential, and Presidential for that matter.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm telling you, the pick is going to be Rob Portman.  He has the experience, the capability, and the smarts, and he even looks Vice Presidential, and Presidential for that matter.

So you've given up on Lindsay Graham?

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=109384.msg2328874#msg2328874

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

I'm telling you, the pick is going to be Rob Portman.  He has the experience, the capability, and the smarts, and he even looks Vice Presidential, and Presidential for that matter.

So you've given up on Lindsay Graham?

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=109384.msg2328874#msg2328874

For sure.  A lot changes in 2 1/2 years.

The man is Portman.

[technical support]

rob portman
john thune
tim pawlenty  (obamneycare)
 

[milhouse24]

rob portman
john thune
tim pawlenty

I think it will be Portman in the end, because Romney needs to win Ohio, and he can use Portman's network and GOTV volunteers to accomplish that.  This could also spread to parts of Michigan, which is north of Ohio; and maybe to western PA.  In addition, northern virginians may like Portman as one of them (ie, a government worker bee).   

I think Thune is in a tough spot, he's only 51, so he's waiting for either 2016 or 2020 for his shot at the white house.  In 2016, it would likely be a Jeb Bush/Thune ticket if Romney loses.  If Romney wins, then in 2020, Thune will face Portman and Rubio in the presidential primaries.  Thune would easily win the Iowa primaries being so close. 

[Mr. Morden]

I think Thune is in a tough spot, he's only 51, so he's waiting for either 2016 or 2020 for his shot at the white house.  In 2016, it would likely be a Jeb Bush/Thune ticket if Romney loses.  If Romney wins, then in 2020, Thune will face Portman and Rubio in the presidential primaries.  Thune would easily win the Iowa primaries being so close. 

I don't know.  I think the fact that Thune passed on a presidential run in 2012 means that he probably doesn't care so much about becoming president.  He might simply be as happy to become Senate Majority Leader as he would to become president.

[Jayhawker]

No link, but my sources out in Utah said Condi Rice was the star of Romney's speech, receiving a standing ovation. I expect her name to start being floated around more.

[milhouse24]

I think Thune is in a tough spot, he's only 51, so he's waiting for either 2016 or 2020 for his shot at the white house.  In 2016, it would likely be a Jeb Bush/Thune ticket if Romney loses.  If Romney wins, then in 2020, Thune will face Portman and Rubio in the presidential primaries.  Thune would easily win the Iowa primaries being so close. 

I don't know.  I think the fact that Thune passed on a presidential run in 2012 means that he probably doesn't care so much about becoming president.  He might simply be as happy to become Senate Majority Leader as he would to become president.

That might be true, but he passed on 2012 because of the TARP votes and at the time, the Tea Partiers had a lot of power.  Even thinking about running means that at least 1% of his mind would like to be president some day.  It all comes down to timing and guts.  In eight years, Portman would be oldish, and easy to beat.  He would also run in 4 years on his own or as VP. 

[HagridOfTheDeep]

No link, but my sources out in Utah said Condi Rice was the star of Romney's speech, receiving a standing ovation. I expect her name to start being floated around more.

I hope. She would be a fantastic pick. Her pro-choice stance isn't exactly one I agree with, but she's content to accept pro-life politics. And... people in the rust belt will take kindly to a moderate, well-spoken woman. I think Condi is the only real trump card left in this game.

[RogueBeaver]

No link, but my sources out in Utah said Condi Rice was the star of Romney's speech, receiving a standing ovation. I expect her name to start being floated around more.

I hope. She would be a fantastic pick. Her pro-choice stance isn't exactly one I agree with, but she's content to accept pro-life politics. And... people in the rust belt will take kindly to a moderate, well-spoken woman. I think Condi is the only real trump card left in this game.

She's said ad infinitum that she's an academic, not a politician. Bush's SoS whose tenure is controversial even among conservatives and a self-admitted moderate on the issues. Portman has a similar problem- closely tied to Bush when Obama's been running against GWB on and off for 5 years. I could see her being asked for FP advice once in a while or maybe PFAIB if Romney wins, but that's about it.

[technical support]

rob portman
john thune
tim pawlenty

I think it will be Portman in the end, because Romney needs to win Ohio, and he can use Portman's network and GOTV volunteers to accomplish that.  This could also spread to parts of Michigan, which is north of Ohio; and maybe to western PA.  In addition, northern virginians may like Portman as one of them (ie, a government worker bee).   

I think Thune is in a tough spot, he's only 51, so he's waiting for either 2016 or 2020 for his shot at the white house.  In 2016, it would likely be a Jeb Bush/Thune ticket if Romney loses.  If Romney wins, then in 2020, Thune will face Portman and Rubio in the presidential primaries.  Thune would easily win the Iowa primaries being so close. 

You don't  think romney may just choose someone thats not part of washington? I'm thinking he may now

[asexual trans victimologist]

We must remember that Romney himself is not 'part of Washington', though certainly not for lack of trying to be.

[Mr. Morden]

This article by CBS claims that Cathy McMorris Rodgers recently told National Journal that she's not being vetted, but I can't find the original reporting by National Journal:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57456390-503544/veep-question-of-the-day-whos-being-vetted/

Also, the veepstakes reaches self-parody as 1.5 term Rep. Tom Graves of Georgia refuses to say whether he's being vetted:

http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/graves-mum-amid-vp-1463348.html

[RogueBeaver]

CMR was named House liaison a while back.