Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[Mr. Morden]

UPDATE: Announcement is being made on Sat. Aug. 11 in Norfolk at 9am ET: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/08/10/158606908/mitt-romney-to-announce-running-mate-saturday

OK, fine, I'll appease the masses by consolidating most VP discussion into two threads.  This thread will be for actual hard news about the VP search.  You know, stuff that you find on news sites or blogs that is supposedly coming from either the campaign or the potential VP candidates themselves.  If someone denies interest in being Romney's running mate, you can post it here.  Or if leaks come out of the campaign about who they're vetting or what the criteria are, then post it in here as well.  Examples of what would go in this thread are in these threads, which I'll lock shortly:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152534.0

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153558.0

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153778.0

Certainly, the news items will generate some speculation here about who's up and who's down in the running mate search, but for free-floating speculation about who you think Romney *should* pick, independent of any particular news pegs, I'll have another thread going, which I'll create shortly.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

An interesting statement from the chairman of the Massachusetts Republican party, which I have no doubt sums up the criteria Romney is using in his VP selection.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/romneys-vice-presidential-checklist/

“The first thing is he needs somebody who the people of the country will look at that individual and say if anything ever god forbid happened to Mitt Romney, this person could be president,” says Robert Maginn, chairman of the Massachusetts Republican party.

“So it’s almost like–the first rule is don’t be cute, don’t try to pick somebody who is going to bring a swing state, or bring a demographic, you pick the person who you honestly believe could step in the Oval Office and run the free world and run the country. ”

“The second thing is, there’s gotta be good personal chemistry. The president and the vice president have to work together very well. So there’s a personal connection that has to be there, they have to be able to help each other, advise each other,” Maginn explains.

“Those are the two most important factors and then you can say that from there, you can think about what balance does the person bring to the ticket?” Maginn asks.

That balance of course offers the best lead for speculation. Who balances out the successful businessman and former governor of Massachusetts?

[Vosem]

An interesting statement from the chairman of the Massachusetts Republican party, which I have no doubt sums up the criteria Romney is using in his VP selection.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/romneys-vice-presidential-checklist/

“The first thing is he needs somebody who the people of the country will look at that individual and say if anything ever god forbid happened to Mitt Romney, this person could be president,” says Robert Maginn, chairman of the Massachusetts Republican party.

“So it’s almost like–the first rule is don’t be cute, don’t try to pick somebody who is going to bring a swing state, or bring a demographic, you pick the person who you honestly believe could step in the Oval Office and run the free world and run the country. ”

“The second thing is, there’s gotta be good personal chemistry. The president and the vice president have to work together very well. So there’s a personal connection that has to be there, they have to be able to help each other, advise each other,” Maginn explains.

“Those are the two most important factors and then you can say that from there, you can think about what balance does the person bring to the ticket?” Maginn asks.

That balance of course offers the best lead for speculation. Who balances out the successful businessman and former governor of Massachusetts?

Romney and Paul Ryan met campaigning in Wisconsin and apparently the two of them 'work'. Certainly it would be easy to imagine Ryan as the President. So I think these statements recommend Ryan. Of course, Ryan brings with him certain problems...

[RogueBeaver]

If personal chemistry is the deciding factor then the nomination is definitely Ryan's to lose- when the word "bromance" was being thrown around...

[Lief]

Hahaha Romney is seriously considering picking Ryan? Awesome.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

If he does, though, the Democrats will tear him a new one.

[RogueBeaver]

If he does, though, the Democrats will tear him a new one.

What, pray tell, would the Dems say that they haven't been saying for 2 years now? Romney is running on that budget and both men have literally put their arms around each other quite enthusiastically (unlike Dole/Kemp). If Romney's unafraid of a de facto ticket, no reason to be afraid of a de jure one.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

If he does, though, the Democrats will tear him a new one.

What, pray tell, would the Dems say that they haven't been saying for 2 years now? Romney is running on that budget and both men have literally put their arms around each other quite enthusiastically (unlike Dole/Kemp). If Romney's unafraid of a de facto ticket, no reason to be afraid of a de jure one.

If Ryan is Romney's actual VP, the connection will be even more permanent and the Democratic attacks will be relentless. They won't say anything different, they'll just be saying it more.

[WhyteRain]

The MSM, having promoted the nomination of the most anti-Tea Party candidacy of Mitt Romney, will get behind another anti-Tea Partyer, Paul Ryan.  

All you need to know about Ryan is that his budget would balance in 26 years.  Sen. Rand Paul (T-KY) has proposed a budget that will balance in five.

Ryan's budget has already been overrun by facts.  In a few more years the Ryan Budget will be so useless that the Democrats will adopt it and whine "hey, it was a Republican idea back then (when it could have done some good) -- why won't you support it now?!?"

[State Comptroller Atkins]

When will Romney announce who his running mate is? Obama and McCain announced theirs in August, but didn't Kerry announce his in June?

[RogueBeaver]

When will Romney announce who his running mate is? Obama and McCain announced theirs in August, but didn't Kerry announce his in June?

Kerry announced his in early July- 3 weeks before the DNC. No real bump. By all indications Romney will announce the pick no more than a week before C-Day. Probably by appearing with said person at a campaign event like Obama and McCain did in '08.

[kingthlayer]

If Romney picks Ryan, he won't be able to shamelessly flip flop away from the congressman's budget plans once they come under scrutiny again. I doubt Ryan's solutions are any more resilient to Democratic attacks now than they were a year ago.

Thus, I don't think Ryan's on the ticket unless Romney is 100% ready to commit himself to his proposals for the entire campaign. He very well could be ready, but I doubt it.

Remember, Romney needs to keep this election a referendum on Obama's performance on the economy, or else he won't win. If his campaign gets distracted or put on the defensive over Ryan's budget plans, Romney will be in serious trouble. Thus I think Ryan ultimately violates the "do no harm" rule, and we can rule him out.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Remember, Romney needs to keep this election a referendum on Obama's performance on the economy, or else he won't win. If his campaign gets distracted or put on the defensive over Ryan's budget plans, Romney will be in serious trouble. Thus I think Ryan ultimately violates the "do no harm" rule, and we can rule him out.

Like Kathy Hochul. She won in a Republican-leaning district based solely on opposition to the Ryan plan.

[RogueBeaver]

Portman is meeting Bibi in Israel.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/vp-contender-rob-portman-to-meet-with-israel-pm/

[Mr. Morden]

I posted in this thread two weeks ago that Romney officials were saying that the vetting process had begun, and at least some of the prospective running mate options had already been contacted to ask for info:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153778.0

Pawlenty, Portman, Rubio, and Ryan have all refused to say whether they've been contacted by the campaign for vetting.  Daniels and Thune (at least as of two weeks ago) said that they had not been contacted.  Now McDonnell also says that he has not been contacted:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/virginia-news/2012/05/mcdonnell-romney-campaign-not-vetting-me-veep/666366

[Mr. Morden]

A spokesman for Nikki Haley says that she hasn't been contacted for vetting, and would refuse to be vetted if asked, because (as Haley has said before) she isn't interested in being VP:

http://summerville.patch.com/articles/haley-spokesperson-gov-hasnt-been-vetted-and-wont-be

[HagridOfTheDeep]

so who the hell is being vetted?

[RogueBeaver]

Most likely Rubio, Portman, Jindal, Ryan, Pawlenty, CMR/Ayotte or Toomey as longshots. I'd be very surprised if McDonnell wasn't on the list but we'll only find out in 2 years when H&H release their book.

[Mr. Morden]

so who the hell is being vetted?

The blog race42012 claims that the following people (though this would probably be an incomplete list) have been sent vetting materials by the Romney campaign:

Ayotte
Christie
Jindal
McMorris Rodgers
Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio

But this hasn't been confirmed by any other news source, so take it with a grain of salt.

The following people have refused to say whether or not they're being vetted:

Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio
Ryan

The following people have said on the record that they're *not* being vetted:

Daniels
Haley
McDonnell
Thune

(Though it's possible that they're lying and/or that the Romney campaign just hasn't gotten to them yet.)

So little is known for sure.  I would bet money though that Pawlenty is indeed under consideration, because of how suddenly he reversed his denials of interest.  He went from "No, I have no interest in being veep, and would turn down the offer" to "I can't really talk about this anymore, and I'm not saying whether I would or wouldn't accept the offer" just at the moment when the vetting process began.

[RogueBeaver]

I would also bet that most, if not all, of the people who say "no comment" are being vetted.

[Mr. Morden]

I would also bet that most, if not all, of the people who say "no comment" are being vetted.

Agreed.  In vice presidentese, "I don't think I'll be picked" means "I'm desperate to be picked", and "I can't say whether I'm being vetted" means "I'm obviously being vetted, but can't tell you, you idiot reporter."

[True Federalist]

By the way, Nikki Haley has put in her two cents as to who should be Romney's choice: either Bobby Jindal or Condi Rice.

http://www.thestate.com/2012/05/30/2295145/haley-bobby-jindal-or-condi-rice.html

[RogueBeaver]

I wouldn't use the word desperate so much as interested. Desperate is McDonnell, who has outdone John 'effin Edwards in his public campaigning for that job but with little effect. I said it would haunt him and now look- he claims he's not being vetted and NJ/WaPo have way downgraded him on their rankings. Romney isn't the sort of person to appreciate that sort of stuff given his background and personality.

[Mr. Morden]

As recently as April, Jeb Bush said that he'd "consider it" if Romney asked him to be his running mate.

Now he says that he wouldn't accept, and wouldn't agree to a vetting:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/jeb-bush-vp-candidacy-not-in-the-cards-for-me-and-he-can-prove-it/

Today when asked if he would be willing to turn over personal documents to the Romney campaign vice presidential vetting team, Bush offered firm no.

“He won’t ask and I won’t do it,” Bush said. “He won’t ask me because me [for vetting documents] because I am not going to be considered.”

[RogueBeaver]

He probably wasn't on the list to begin with.