Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[Diabolical Minds Think Alike]

I still think it's gonna be Paul Ryan.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Romney has absolutely no reason to announce his VP pick until the last possible moment. I'd be surprised if he announced within the next month.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney has absolutely no reason to announce his VP pick until the last possible moment.

Sure he does.  He may be able to get the current short-listers to campaign for him as surrogates, but they're not doing it at nearly the same pace as any of them would after being officially named as his running mate.  If he picks someone now, then he'll have a new full-time candidate to help campaign around the country and raise money.

[RogueBeaver]

NRO feature on Portman.

http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/304969

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Historically, candidates have waited until the cusp of the convention to announce their VP choices:



Will the advantage that comes with having a second full-time campaigner make enough of a difference to Romney that he'll buck this trend?

[RogueBeaver]

I'm inclined to think that the actual vetting is done and what's left is selection, or at least 90% of the vetting is done. Certainly that would be the case if he's going to make an announcement in the next 3 weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

Will the advantage that comes with having a second full-time campaigner make enough of a difference to Romney that he'll buck this trend?

I don't know.  Maybe.  We'll find out soon enough, since there's not that much time before the Olympics.

But keep in mind: 1) If Romney is going to pick someone "boring" like Portman or Pawlenty, then he's not likely to get a bump out of the announcement anyway, no matter when the announcement is made.  So then there really would be no point in waiting, and 2) The national conventions have been getting later since about 2004 or so (note how many of the dates you give above are in July).  So yes, historically candidates have waited until the convention to announce their pick.  But that usually hasn't meant waiting until the last week of August, barely more than two months before general election, and little more than a month before the VP candidate is expected to debate.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

The argument that I've heard is that waiting allows the Romney camp to amass more information about a presumptive pick (as the Obama campaign and the media investigate everyone who is being speculated on), and that because of this there's no point in going public earlier than he must.

[True Federalist]

With Romney using the short list on the stump already, there is no advantage in making a final pick before the Olympics, so I now think he'll wait till August.  If I'm wrong and he does announce before the Olympics, it'll be next week.

[Mr. Morden]

The argument that I've heard is that waiting allows the Romney camp to amass more information about a presumptive pick (as the Obama campaign and the media investigate everyone who is being speculated on), and that because of this there's no point in going public earlier than he must.

Assuming there is more vetting to be done.  None of us is inside the Romney campaign, so we don't know how far along the vetting is.  They may well already have all the information they're ever going to get, so there's nothing to be gained from waiting longer.  Or maybe not.  We just don't know.

Also, yes, he's already using the short list on the stump.  But not as much as a full time running mate would.  And a Rob Portman or whoever else it might be just isn't going to attract nearly as much attention on the stump before he's named as the VP nominee in waiting.

Ramesh Ponnuru makes another point about not waiting if the pick is boring, though I think this is secondary:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-25/who-should-romney-pick-for-vice-president-.html

If Romney picks Kyl, McDonnell, Pawlenty, Portman or Thune -- anyone on this list, that is, but Christie or Jindal -- he should make the announcement soon. None of those guys is going to excite the Republican convention, so there is no point in waiting for it. The longer Romney waits, the more conservatives will speculate about candidates like Rubio and the more many of them will feel let down by a choice that isn’t designed to give them the rush of momentary excitement.

If Romney is going to do something boring, in other words, he should at least do it in a novel way.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

I find Condoleezza Rice incredibly intriguing.  Smart, educated, experienced, incredible foreign policy credentials, which Romney lacks.

I know she is pro choice, however, I believe the Reublican base would still vote for Romney with Rice on the ticket regardless.  They certainly are not going to vote for Obama.

She is clearly not a "boring white guy."  She is incredibly exciting and highly qualified.  I know her Bush ties may be a drawback to some, but she is her own person, and would excite independents, moderates, and swing voters.     

http://news.yahoo.com/condoleezza-rice-speech-stirs-vice-presidential-talk-140316502.html

“Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice delivered a 15-minute luncheon speech on foreign and domestic policy Saturday that donors described as electrifying and had attendees on their feet twice,” said Rucker. “One donor said Rice was ‘the star of the show,’ while another said that, if it was a vice presidential tryout, ‘she hit it out of the park.’”

[HagridOfTheDeep]

She would be amazing. That's why I don't see it happening.

[Runeghost]

I find Condoleezza Rice incredibly intriguing.  Smart, educated, experienced, incredible foreign policy credentials, which Romney lacks.

I know she is pro choice, however, I believe the Reublican base would still vote for Romney with Rice on the ticket regardless.  They certainly are not going to vote for Obama.

She is clearly not a "boring white guy."  She is incredibly exciting and highly qualified.  I know her Bush ties may be a drawback to some, but she is her own person, and would excite independents, moderates, and swing voters.     

http://news.yahoo.com/condoleezza-rice-speech-stirs-vice-presidential-talk-140316502.html

“Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice delivered a 15-minute luncheon speech on foreign and domestic policy Saturday that donors described as electrifying and had attendees on their feet twice,” said Rucker. “One donor said Rice was ‘the star of the show,’ while another said that, if it was a vice presidential tryout, ‘she hit it out of the park.’”

Yes, she's intelligent, capable, and would be a daring, outside-the-box choice for Republican VP.  But in addition to being pro-choice (which by itself is a deal breaker for large portions of the Republican base), she's also black and single.

While I have no doubt that that there are large numbers of Republicans for whom none of those are a problem, I expect that a very significant proportion of the base views one or all of them as complete non-starters.  I think that picking Rice would easily lead to, say 5% of the base choosing to stay home, which would be devastating, not just for Romney's presidential chances, but for down-ticket races as well.

[RogueBeaver]

Portman confirmed he's being vetted. Isn't that kinda breaking the rules?

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/veepstakes-portman-met-with-romney-aides/

[Jayhawker]

If Rice were pro-life, she'd be a homerun pick.

As it stands, it comes down to whether the risk is worth the reward. GOP turnout may be slightly lower, however, could it be made up in moderate voters? I'm not sure if Romney is willing to take that risk, especially since he can win with a boring pick.

[Mr. Morden]

Portman confirmed he's being vetted. Isn't that kinda breaking the rules?

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/veepstakes-portman-met-with-romney-aides/

He simply confirmed that he'd had six meetings with Romney campaign people in a span of six hours.  That could be for anything, no? 

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

As much as I love Condi, and as brilliant and qualified as she is, I think we all know that Mitt is not going to take that extraordinary risk of picking a pro life candidate.

A Romney Rice ticket and administration would be my dream for America though.

[Jayhawker]

As much as I love Condi, and as brilliant and qualified as she is, I think we all know that Mitt is not going to take that extraordinary risk of picking a pro life candidate.

A Romney Rice ticket and administration would be my dream for America though.

My thoughts. America needs Romney/Rice. Between Romney's brilliance on economics and Rice's brilliance on foreign policy, those two would easily have one of the best administrations we've had, and would heal many of our problems.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

As much as I love Condi, and as brilliant and qualified as she is, I think we all know that Mitt is not going to take that extraordinary risk of picking a pro life candidate.

A Romney Rice ticket and administration would be my dream for America though.

My thoughts. America needs Romney/Rice. Between Romney's brilliance on economics and Rice's brilliance on foreign policy, those two would easily have one of the best administrations we've had, and would heal many of our problems.

Agreed, but I think we all know she won't be the VP nominee, unfortunately.  But President Romney could call upon her to accept the office of Secretary of State yet again. 

[Jayhawker]

As much as I love Condi, and as brilliant and qualified as she is, I think we all know that Mitt is not going to take that extraordinary risk of picking a pro life candidate.

A Romney Rice ticket and administration would be my dream for America though.

My thoughts. America needs Romney/Rice. Between Romney's brilliance on economics and Rice's brilliance on foreign policy, those two would easily have one of the best administrations we've had, and would heal many of our problems.

Agreed, but I think we all know she won't be the VP nominee, unfortunately.  But President Romney could call upon her to accept the office of Secretary of State yet again. 

I've given a little thought to who our cabinet will be - She'd be excellent. I also would be happy with Senator Lugar, despite his age. It's a shame - she'd do much better than Portman will do as our VP.

Maybe Condi can run after Mitt's 8 years are up? She wouldn't be too old.

[Clinton1996]

As much as I love Condi, and as brilliant and qualified as she is, I think we all know that Mitt is not going to take that extraordinary risk of picking a pro life candidate.

A Romney Rice ticket and administration would be my dream for America though.

My thoughts. America needs Romney/Rice. Between Romney's brilliance on economics and Rice's brilliance on foreign policy, those two would easily have one of the best administrations we've had, and would heal many of our problems.

Agreed, but I think we all know she won't be the VP nominee, unfortunately.  But President Romney could call upon her to accept the office of Secretary of State yet again. 

I've given a little thought to who our cabinet will be - She'd be excellent. I also would be happy with Senator Lugar, despite his age. It's a shame - she'd do much better than Portman will do as our VP.

Maybe Condi can run after Mitt's 8 years are up? She wouldn't be too old.

Whoa there cowboy, don't count your horses before they get to the stable. My guess is Romney-Pawlenty. I wouldnt go about picking a cabinet yet, but Luger would be great at the state dept. or defense dept. Condi would only further the Obama message of taking us back to Bush (I.E. illegal Iraq War, failure in Afganistan). And 8 years of Mitt? My guess is, if the Governor manages to eek out a victory in November, in the words of Rupert Mourdoch "Doubtful", Clinton/Scweitzer would swamp Romney in 2016. And I'm talking 400 or more EVs.

Clinton-Scweitzer 438
Romney-Pawlenty 100

[HagridOfTheDeep]

You fail to realize that Mitt Romney will actually fix America's problems in four years. So I can't take your predicition seriously.



Re: Romney/Rice... it would be a dream, and I think it would step the GOP in the right direction. Say what you want about Condoleeza Rice, but one thing she isn't is a nutjob. And while the "nutjob" criticism seems childish, it's a serious threat to the GOP. Ask moderates what they thought about guys like Santorum, and I bet the nutjob word comes up a few times. Personal feelings aside, Condi as Romney's running mate would immediately tell America that Romney is ready to run a serious administration with an exponentially qualified Vice President. And moderates would go crazy for her.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin predicts that Romney will pick a running mate who isn't like Palin:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-zoBEZEeEeU

[Clinton1996]

You fail to realize that Mitt Romney will actually fix America's problems in four years. So I can't take your predicition seriously.

No, you fail to realize that No One, could've fixed this mess in 4 years. If Romney had won back in 2008, most likely he'd be in the same position Obama is in right now, with the exception he'd probably have a much stronger opponent, I.E. Clinton, Scweitzer, O'Malley, or Cuomo.

[RogueBeaver]

Now we're back to "no timeline." Looking increasingly unlikely the announcement will be made within the next week, pre-Olympics.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/mitchell-reports/48150922