Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If it's this week, I feel like it's Pawlenty. If it's later, I feel like it's Ryan.

With Romney set to unleash hell on Obama (cocaine, Blago, etc.), I was starting to think he'd leave the VP announcement for later. Both a VP announcement and a negative ad frenzy would be big distractions from the tax returns issue, so why would he need both? Seems like overkill. Especially when a VP announcement isn't likely to backfire.

[kingthlayer]

With Romney set to unleash a relentless stream of pointlessness on Obama (cocaine, Blago, etc.), I was starting to think he'd leave the VP announcement for later.

Fixed.

[True Federalist]

Just got an email from the Romney campaign:


Friend,

How amazing would it be to personally meet Mitt and his choice for VP during this historic campaign? You've still got 48 hours to enter for a chance to meet America's Comeback Team -- don't miss out.

Donate $3 today to be automatically entered for the chance to join Mitt and his VP pick at a future event.

Good luck!

Abe Adams
Deputy Digital Director
Romney for President

Remember how they said it was each week until the announcement to enter this contest? Now it's down to 48 hours. Methinks the announcement is coming this week.

Or it could be just that the chance to win this week ends Friday, with Saturday starting a new week.

[Diabolical Minds Think Alike]

Or it could be just that the chance to win this week ends Friday, with Saturday starting a new week.

Perhaps.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

I still say Portman.

As a CNN guest commentator said the other day-

Portman is as solid as a rock and as safe as a seat belt.

[RogueBeaver]

If you're getting that Bushed might as well go all-in and pick Jeb.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I'm really thinking Pawlenty, at this point.

If we go through the Olympics with no substantive news, I might revise that to Ryan. I think RogueBeaver's got a good handle on the dynamic here.

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks. I just don't see Pawlenty as a viable option... and this "best surrogate" meme is easily disproved by a few clicks around YouTube. Most active surrogate maybe, but definitely not best. This might be my contrarianism talking but I seriously doubt that Romney is going to drop the name a month in advance. Those who know don't talk and those who don't know talk, that's how I see things.

Pawlenty looks good on paper but in practice not so much. That, IMO, basically summarizes his problems as a potential running mate.

Here are the Ryan pros and cons as I see them.


Cons

1) Mediscare: Potential problem but Romney has already endorsed P2P as his governing document and literally, publicly, hugged its author. They can't disengage even if they wanted to, which they don't. If Ryan's on the shortlist this has already been priced in. Plus Ryan's the only one who can explain his plan smoothly.

2) Executive experience: Already priced in. And/or it could be that Romney, who knows a thing or 2 about HR from his Bain days, sees executive potential in Ryan even if he's never had an opportunity to exercise it.

3) Acceptance: No one goes through a virtual colonoscopy for the lulz, plus by one account Romney and Myers are calling all the shortlisters personally. You don't go that far if you intend on saying no.

4) Too risky: See 1/2. Romney didn't get to where he was in the business world by playing 100% safe but by taking calculated risk. Which this would be, as were his primary stances on entitlements and immigration.


Pros

1) $$$: Proven major-league fundraiser on his own.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78778.html

2) Juices the base: No explanation required.

3) Excellent communicator: Even Dems such as Jon Chait will (very) grudgingly acknowledge this.

4) Made for soft-bio background: Small-town guy made big, worked way through college, etc.

5) Aced the chem test: No explanation required.

6) Historical precedent: Younger star from another wing of the party than the nominee's.

[aobduser]

May be still Obama.

[milhouse24]

Pawlenty was practically screaming about how un-boring he is, even offering to "show my tats" for Cavuto.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78687.html

Wow. Trying too hard there T-Paw.

Your Bane Photo is disrespectful of the victims of the Colorado shooting. 
But I suppose to some lefty people its funny comparing Romney to a Murderer. 

[Comrade Funk]

Pawlenty was practically screaming about how un-boring he is, even offering to "show my tats" for Cavuto.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78687.html

Wow. Trying too hard there T-Paw.

Your Bane Photo is disrespectful of the victims of the Colorado shooting. 
But I suppose to some lefty people its funny comparing Romney to a Murderer. 

Dude, I put that in my sig before it even happened (Bane=Bain, get it...), and I took it down literally a day after I put it there. Why don't you stop assuming things to score moral political points.

[Chris B]

I think if Romney decides to go with a 'game change' pick, then it'll be Jindal. I just don't think Ryan is going to be picked in the end because he reinforces the whole Democratic argument against Romney as being someone who'll cut taxes for the rich at the expense of the working/middle class.

Though I still think he'll go with a safe pick means Portman or Pawlenty. And I'd give the edge to Portman.

[RogueBeaver]

It won't be Jindal, they just met this week. Romney isn't going to pick someone he doesn't know- and Jindal, a fellow management consultant, knows this.

[Rockefeller]

All this hoop-blah about Jindal, Ryan and Pawlenty doesn't change the fact that Senator Rob Portman is still everything that the Romney campaign is looking for. 

[RogueBeaver]

All this hoop-blah about Jindal, Ryan and Pawlenty doesn't change the fact that Senator Rob Portman is still everything that the Romney campaign is looking for. 

He failed the chem test and is Bushier than any non-Bush Bushie. Not happening.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney leaves for the UK on Wednesday:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/21/12875776-risk-and-reward-await-romney-on-foreign-trip?lite

and will be visiting the UK, Israel, and Poland over the subsequent six days, after which he returns to the USA.  I think it goes without saying that we've now run out of time for a veep announcement before this trip.  The earliest it's going to happen is immediately after the Olympics.

[Diabolical Minds Think Alike]

Plus he's not going to announce after the tragedy in Colorado, out of respect.

Also, T-Paw is a tryhard.

[RogueBeaver]

Ed Morrissey interviews T-Paw.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ygcTqtS31g&feature=player_embedded

[asexual trans victimologist]

I'm beginning to  move away from an assumption of Pawlenty and towards thinking it'll be something like a tossup between him and Ryan at this point.

[RogueBeaver]

[RogueBeaver]

I'm beginning to  move away from an assumption of Pawlenty and towards thinking it'll be something like a tossup between him and Ryan at this point.

Out of curiosity, what changed the equation for you?

[asexual trans victimologist]

I responded to your PM, but I'll say it again here for the rest of the forum. I think that Pawlenty is trying too hard and I've looked more closely into Romney and Ryan's relationship (not necessarily a pleasant experience as someone who dislikes both of them, let me tell you! ) and they seem to have a good rapport and more familiarity with each other than I was aware of. I still think Pawlenty has a slight edge because he's 'safer' (and we'll remember that Romney's so far running a campaign straight out of the proverbial field manuals), but I'm not convinced he really has all that much of a leg up over Ryan, considering Ryan is orders of magnitude more interesting and has at least baseline competence for if and when Romney decides to go on the offense. For example, if it's Ryan who's going to be debating Dynamite Joe, that will be kinetic, informative to watch, and actually kind of exciting to political junkies like us. If it's Pawlenty, not so much.

I'm sincerely doubting the possibility of Portman, since I don't think anybody will really notice or care if it's him and he doesn't have the gravitas of Pawlenty (not that Pawlenty actually has gravitas, but I can imagine the Romney people perceiving what he has as gravitas).

[Side note: I have a ton of affection and respect for Joe Biden, whose cultural background is very similar to that of my family, so I have reasons to hope that the Republican running mate specifically will be a crashing bore; hence the shift in my perception of the veepstakes is the exact opposite of wishful thinking.)

[RogueBeaver]

Largely agreed, except I think Portman has more gravitas than Pawlenty.

[A-Bob]

Right now I'm thinking first tier- Pawlenty and Portman (lean Pawlenty)
2- Jindal and Martinez (Martinez is Romney's game changer pick that won't backfire)
3- Ayotte, Thune, Rice (I'll explain her below)
4- McDonnell if he can't get these guys to say yes

The announcement is going to come between the end of the olympics and the beginning of the convention. Romney's last high profile campaign move will be his international trip, on top of the Olympics. I think he's going to pick someone with foreign policy experience, and the closer date to the end of the Olympics I think it will be more likely he/she will have foreign policy experience to a date closer to the RNC where his international trip was longer ago.

The reason I previously thought Portman had to be it despite his close Bush ties, was his vast foreign policy experience. I'm changing my mind now after reading an article from years ago about Pawlenty and a more recent one citing the old article and his foreign policy experience. Pawlenty has made international trips, 8 years as commander in chief of the national guard (no it isn't really a war in Minnesota, but it's still something), pressuring the Indian company not to invest in Iran. The key thing is Pawlenty is "his own" foreign policy, not an extension of Bush like Portman is. Portman has more experience in every area, and Romney should heavily consider a Senator if he's choosing a candidate to governor with not to win with since the Senate could be 50-50, and no matter what he needs a lot of friends in the Senate to get any agenda he wants through, Portman gives him that.

This is why Rice is still up on the list, and yes she has been looked at somewhat because she was invited to the speech audition, if you may, in Utah and stunned the crowd. If Romney is about to change this campaign to be about foreign policy then she's the pick, not Portman, not Pawlenty. But I doubt he'll make that move at all. Still, she isn't tied to Bush's domestic woes like Portman could be tagged as.

Jindal on the other hand hasn't made many trips, in fact none as Governor. He's the most conservative out of everyone at the top of the list (maybe next to Paul Ryan who I don't think Romney will pick because it guarantees a fight for entitlements and Romney is too weak and fearful of that fight), but he has the least foreign policy experience.

Romney wants his personality next to him that will be loyal and won't be running around making a name for himself or herself.

The reason he'd choose Martinez is because he would be serious about winning hispanics, women, the election, and focussing on the economy. She's a tough cookie. I've read her bio and just because she assumed the Governorship 1.5 years ago, does not mean she is a newbie at all. I would argue she's much better suited to shoot down the "she's as dumb as Palin" idea than Ayotte. Her vice is that as I view it today, Romney is looking for someone with some foreign policy experience. Sure you can argue dealing with Mexico (or Texas ) counts, but it isn't as large as the other guys in the race. I think she becomes a more likely pick if he continues to wait after the Olympics.

I think he'll actually decide after the Olympics because he's going to wait and see the reaction to how he did on the international stage. Will he need someone for whatever reason, with a foreign policy background or not. That will shift this whole mess around on who's at the top of the list.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I hate this drawn out affair lol. That more and more he waits, the more and more I desperately hope it will be Martinez. Even though I'm quite sure it won't be her.