Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[A-Bob]

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

McCain never seriously looked at him at all in the final round. He was simply used as a decoy and wasn't even told he was a decoy.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

McCain never seriously looked at him at all in the final round. He was simply used as a decoy and wasn't even told he was a decoy.

Source?

My recollection is that the reporting had McCain polling his senior aides to see who they thought would be the best pick politically, and Pawlenty had the most support in McCain's inner circle, but McCain overruled them to go with Palin.

[mondale84]

I'm beginning to grow more confident that the pick will be Paul Ryan. No matter what anyone says or reports, I have a gut feeling that it'll be Paul Ryan. At the end of the day, Pawlenty is safe, but he's too safe. The base will get behind the Romney/Pawlenty ticket, but I highly doubt Independents will. Plus there'll be a bunch of "Obamneycare" ads, etc. Paul Ryan will excite the base and would definitely win over more Indies than Pawlenty would.

Yeah to Obama. People like the Medicare and Social Security they've paid for.

[RogueBeaver]

Does anyone read the articles?

Portman and Pawlenty made Karl’s list, but political observers were surprised that he thought the selection of Ryan was just as likely. In fact, Karl thinks much of the political wisdom that sees Ryan as a detriment to the Romney ticket is undone by the former Massachusetts governor’s personal support for both Ryan as a politician and his embrace of the House Budget Committee chairman’s controversial Path to Prosperity budget reform proposal.
 
“I think Romney has already embraced the Ryan budget and I think they’re fully aware that they’re going to get attacked on it whether he’s there or not,” said Karl. “Ryan is the best person to defend against those attacks on the ticket.”
“His only experience is as a member of Congress, so there are a lot of reasons why you could imagine it would not be him, but he has one very big believer and that is, I believe, Romney himself,” said Karl. “I think the only opinion that matters is Romney’s.”
 

I made the exact same point 2 weeks ago.

Mediscare: Potential problem but Romney has already endorsed P2P as his governing document and literally, publicly, hugged its author. They can't disengage even if they wanted to, which they don't. If Ryan's on the shortlist this has already been priced in. Plus Ryan's the only one who can explain his plan smoothly.
 

[RogueBeaver]

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

McCain never seriously looked at him at all in the final round. He was simply used as a decoy and wasn't even told he was a decoy.

Source?

My recollection is that the reporting had McCain polling his senior aides to see who they thought would be the best pick politically, and Pawlenty had the most support in McCain's inner circle, but McCain overruled them to go with Palin.

That's also what Game Change says- most of them wanted Pawlenty but Schmidt said they needed a game-changer. McCain agreed with him. Plus Palin at that point in her career was a better fit with McCain's mavericky brand.

[Mr. Morden]

On the veep announcement timing, another option besides the one I floated earlier would be to hold it right at the very end of the bus tour, but tease the announcement during the bus tour to get people to pay attention.

Say Romney spends the coming week mulling his VP options, discussing it with his aides and possibly even talking to the short-listers themselves, with an eye towards having a decision by the end of the week.  But when Friday rolls around and the bus tour is launched in, say, either Michigan or Ohio, Romney kicks off the tour by saying that he's going to announce his choice of running mate on Monday  night, when the bus tour concludes.  The campaign will simultaneously leak the short list to the media, and Romney have the media scrutinizing his speeches throughout the rest of the bus tour for clues about who he's going to pick.  It'll be a ploy to get people to pay more attention to him on the bus tour.

Then on Monday, Aug. 13, one day after the end of the Olympics, by which time Ann Romney will be back from London, Romney concludes his bus tour in RNC host city Tampa by announcing his running mate.  The campaign then tries to use the announcement to dominate the media's attention for the subsequent two weeks, leading up to the convention.

[True Federalist]

We know that the bus tour hits Virginia on Aug. 11, and we know that it'll also hit Ohio (probably before Virginia).  Why not have it start in Michigan, where Romney grew up, and have it make its way to Florida, where the RNC will be held?  I mean, if he's going to announce his running mate at this time, then what's the alternative?  Announce it in Ohio, home state of Portman, one of the shortlisters?  Only makes sense if you're picking Portman.  And even if you are picking Portman, why spoil the surprise by revealing that you're going to make the announcement in his home state?  Michigan seems like it makes the most sense.

In fact, even if the announcement isn't for another two or three weeks, I'll predict that it'll be made in Michigan.

Why Michigan?  Even if the state were to become a possible Romney pickup, he'd be well past 270 from other states by then.  If he's going to make the bus trip a day longer, Iowa and/or Wisconsin are far better States to prepend than Michigan.

[milhouse24]

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

McCain never seriously looked at him at all in the final round. He was simply used as a decoy and wasn't even told he was a decoy.

Source?

My recollection is that the reporting had McCain polling his senior aides to see who they thought would be the best pick politically, and Pawlenty had the most support in McCain's inner circle, but McCain overruled them to go with Palin.

That's also what Game Change says- most of them wanted Pawlenty but Schmidt said they needed a game-changer. McCain agreed with him. Plus Palin at that point in her career was a better fit with McCain's mavericky brand.

But Pawlenty was only considered because he was "outside washington" to McCain's "inside washington" status.

Romney "Should" go with an "inside washington" person in the Senate or House, just because it would help soothe voters that a one term governor will know how to cajole Senators into passing his legislation. 

I'm resigned to the fact that it will be T-Paw, and that somehow T-Paw will miraculously bring out the GOP vote in Iowa and Wisconsin.  Otherwise, its a total lost cause for Romney and he should give up on Ohio and Virginia as well. 

[RogueBeaver]

Why resigned to T-Paw? There hasn't been a double-governor ticket on either side since Dewey/Warren, as was pointed out earlier in this thread.

[Mr. Morden]

We know that the bus tour hits Virginia on Aug. 11, and we know that it'll also hit Ohio (probably before Virginia).  Why not have it start in Michigan, where Romney grew up, and have it make its way to Florida, where the RNC will be held?  I mean, if he's going to announce his running mate at this time, then what's the alternative?  Announce it in Ohio, home state of Portman, one of the shortlisters?  Only makes sense if you're picking Portman.  And even if you are picking Portman, why spoil the surprise by revealing that you're going to make the announcement in his home state?  Michigan seems like it makes the most sense.

In fact, even if the announcement isn't for another two or three weeks, I'll predict that it'll be made in Michigan.

Why Michigan?  Even if the state were to become a possible Romney pickup, he'd be well past 270 from other states by then.  If he's going to make the bus trip a day longer, Iowa and/or Wisconsin are far better States to prepend than Michigan.

Because it's Romney's home state (at least, where he grew up), and a quasi-swing state, and it borders on ultimate swing state Ohio.  In recent cycles, candidates have typically either announced their running mate choice in their own home state or in a swing state.  Romney will try to claim Michigan as his home state, and announce his pick there, but not spend too much time there, then a few hours later he and his running mate roll into Ohio and spend the day campaigning there.

I'll stick with that until knocked down by hard news on this: Romney either announces his pick in Michigan (just before the bus tour, or else later in the month), or he announces it in Tampa at the end of the bus tour.

[True Federalist]

Both Portman's and Ryan's home states are swing states, so if it either of them is the choice then an announcement that isn't made at the end of the bus trip is likely to be in their home state, not one of Romney's.  Maybe if Pawlenty is the choice it'll be announced in Michigan, but there are plenty of other logical choices.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Portman's and Ryan's home states are swing states, so if it either of them is the choice then an announcement that isn't made at the end of the bus trip is likely to be in their home state, not one of Romney's.  Maybe if Pawlenty is the choice it'll be announced in Michigan, but there are plenty of other logical choices.

In recent election cycles, presidential nominees have avoided making their announcement in the VP pick's home state to avoid tipping off the press in advance as to who it'll be.  They either announce it in their own home state or a swing state.

Kerry actually went farther than that, and didn't even have Edwards with him when he made his announcement, to help stop the news from leaking.  I believe he announced it in Pennsylvania near his wife's home, while Edwards was in North Carolina.  Then later in the day, Edwards flew out to make a joint appearance with him.

[True Federalist]

Both Portman's and Ryan's home states are swing states, so if it either of them is the choice then an announcement that isn't made at the end of the bus trip is likely to be in their home state, not one of Romney's.  Maybe if Pawlenty is the choice it'll be announced in Michigan, but there are plenty of other logical choices.

In recent election cycles, presidential nominees have avoided making their announcement in the VP pick's home state to avoid tipping off the press in advance as to who it'll be.  They either announce it in their own home state or a swing state.

Kerry actually went farther than that, and didn't even have Edwards with him when he made his announcement, to help stop the news from leaking.  I believe he announced it in Pennsylvania near his wife's home, while Edwards was in North Carolina.  Then later in the day, Edwards flew out to make a joint appearance with him.

Most recent running mate picks have not been from close election swing states.  Gore in 1992 was the last and was announced from Arkansas, but Clinton was a sitting governor at the time.  Romney is free to make his announcement from anywhere he chooses.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Portman's and Ryan's home states are swing states, so if it either of them is the choice then an announcement that isn't made at the end of the bus trip is likely to be in their home state, not one of Romney's.  Maybe if Pawlenty is the choice it'll be announced in Michigan, but there are plenty of other logical choices.

In recent election cycles, presidential nominees have avoided making their announcement in the VP pick's home state to avoid tipping off the press in advance as to who it'll be.  They either announce it in their own home state or a swing state.

Kerry actually went farther than that, and didn't even have Edwards with him when he made his announcement, to help stop the news from leaking.  I believe he announced it in Pennsylvania near his wife's home, while Edwards was in North Carolina.  Then later in the day, Edwards flew out to make a joint appearance with him.

Most recent running mate picks have not been from close election swing states.  Gore in 1992 was the last and was announced from Arkansas, but Clinton was a sitting governor at the time.  Romney is free to make his announcement from anywhere he chooses.

Yes, but as I said, if you announce the pick in the running mate's home state, then you're tipping people off about who you're picking and it kills the surprise.

Maybe Romney won't care about the surprise.  Maybe he'll be happy for people to know who he's going to pick a day or more before he announces it.  But if he does care, then it seems like a bad idea.

[For Oklahoma]

I'm beginning to grow more confident that the pick will be Paul Ryan. No matter what anyone says or reports, I have a gut feeling that it'll be Paul Ryan. At the end of the day, Pawlenty is safe, but he's too safe. The base will get behind the Romney/Pawlenty ticket, but I highly doubt Independents will. Plus there'll be a bunch of "Obamneycare" ads, etc. Paul Ryan will excite the base and would definitely win over more Indies than Pawlenty would.

Ryan budget much?

Do you really think that more Indies would like Pawlenty? Even with the Ryan Budget, do you seriously think Independents will say "yeah, Tim Pawlenty FTW!!!!"?

[For Oklahoma]

On the veep announcement timing, another option besides the one I floated earlier would be to hold it right at the very end of the bus tour, but tease the announcement during the bus tour to get people to pay attention.

Say Romney spends the coming week mulling his VP options, discussing it with his aides and possibly even talking to the short-listers themselves, with an eye towards having a decision by the end of the week.  But when Friday rolls around and the bus tour is launched in, say, either Michigan or Ohio, Romney kicks off the tour by saying that he's going to announce his choice of running mate on Monday  night, when the bus tour concludes.  The campaign will simultaneously leak the short list to the media, and Romney have the media scrutinizing his speeches throughout the rest of the bus tour for clues about who he's going to pick.  It'll be a ploy to get people to pay more attention to him on the bus tour.

Then on Monday, Aug. 13, one day after the end of the Olympics, by which time Ann Romney will be back from London, Romney concludes his bus tour in RNC host city Tampa by announcing his running mate.  The campaign then tries to use the announcement to dominate the media's attention for the subsequent two weeks, leading up to the convention.

This isn't a bad strategy...

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Guys, there's a reason why Pawlenty was named Least Influential Person in the World.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Guys, there's a reason why Pawlenty was named Least Influential Person in the World.

But in all fairness, shouldn't that be Least Influential Governor in the U.S.?

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal, speaking to the RedState Gathering, endorses Ryan for Veep.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXHWqm2A3vI&feature=player_embedded

[For Oklahoma]

Jindal, speaking to the RedState Gathering, endorses Ryan for Veep.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXHWqm2A3vI&feature=player_embedded

Good.

[RogueBeaver]

Karl's latest take.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/sunday-sound-heard-on-this-week-12/

I absolutely think that’s the case.  Right now, the big decision facing Mitt Romney, is does he go with solid and safe?  Does he pick Tim Pawlenty or Rob Portman?  Or does he go big and bold, and the two names that you see there are Paul Ryan or Marco Rubio.  And I can tell you that right now, they’re looking at the big and bold.  And I think that by the day, the chances of big and bold are more plausible when you see Romney behind in virtually all the battleground states.  He’s being urged by some very prominent voices within the Republican Party to go big and bold, and the message that has come back to particularly Marco Rubio supporters is, reassurance that the Romney campaign he’s under serious consideration.  That said, George, if you talk to Republicans close to Romney, still the overwhelming expectation is that he goes to the one of the safe picks. There is increasing pressure, and I think an increasing chance.

[Senator Clarence]

He needs a game changer....Rubio is that pick unless it is some one very unexpected

[RogueBeaver]

IMO, Karl's basically saying that Romney is leaning towards Portlenty but the pendulum is moving towards bold. So the longer the wait... more likely we get a bold pick. One rumored date is this Friday but the Olympics aren't over and IIRC, Ann will still be in London watching Rafalca in the dressage finals. More likely next week sometime IMO.

Politico on Ryan's weekend. Though the stuff they mention seems to me like the mini-tempest over T-Paw's website 2 weeks ago... too obvious.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/paul-ryans-weekend-131130.html

[Senator Clarence]

I respect your admiration for Ryan... if he is the pick, I'd vote for him for VP along with his running mate. However- I believe Rubio is far more dynamic and charismatic and would do more good in Florida then Ryan would in Wisconsin

We agree... Romney needs a game changer

[For Oklahoma]

If it's early next week, it'll likely be Pawlenty, if it's later next week, it'll be Ryan.

Rubio's become the dark horse.