Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[Mr. Morden]

UPDATE: Announcement is being made on Sat. Aug. 11 in Norfolk at 9am ET: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/08/10/158606908/mitt-romney-to-announce-running-mate-saturday

OK, fine, I'll appease the masses by consolidating most VP discussion into two threads.  This thread will be for actual hard news about the VP search.  You know, stuff that you find on news sites or blogs that is supposedly coming from either the campaign or the potential VP candidates themselves.  If someone denies interest in being Romney's running mate, you can post it here.  Or if leaks come out of the campaign about who they're vetting or what the criteria are, then post it in here as well.  Examples of what would go in this thread are in these threads, which I'll lock shortly:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152534.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153558.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153778.0

Certainly, the news items will generate some speculation here about who's up and who's down in the running mate search, but for free-floating speculation about who you think Romney *should* pick, independent of any particular news pegs, I'll have another thread going, which I'll create shortly.

[Mr. Morden]

I posted in this thread two weeks ago that Romney officials were saying that the vetting process had begun, and at least some of the prospective running mate options had already been contacted to ask for info:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153778.0

Pawlenty, Portman, Rubio, and Ryan have all refused to say whether they've been contacted by the campaign for vetting.  Daniels and Thune (at least as of two weeks ago) said that they had not been contacted.  Now McDonnell also says that he has not been contacted:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/virginia-news/2012/05/mcdonnell-romney-campaign-not-vetting-me-veep/666366

[Mr. Morden]

A spokesman for Nikki Haley says that she hasn't been contacted for vetting, and would refuse to be vetted if asked, because (as Haley has said before) she isn't interested in being VP:

http://summerville.patch.com/articles/haley-spokesperson-gov-hasnt-been-vetted-and-wont-be

[Mr. Morden]

so who the hell is being vetted?

The blog race42012 claims that the following people (though this would probably be an incomplete list) have been sent vetting materials by the Romney campaign:

Ayotte
Christie
Jindal
McMorris Rodgers
Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio

But this hasn't been confirmed by any other news source, so take it with a grain of salt.

The following people have refused to say whether or not they're being vetted:

Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio
Ryan

The following people have said on the record that they're *not* being vetted:

Daniels
Haley
McDonnell
Thune

(Though it's possible that they're lying and/or that the Romney campaign just hasn't gotten to them yet.)

So little is known for sure.  I would bet money though that Pawlenty is indeed under consideration, because of how suddenly he reversed his denials of interest.  He went from "No, I have no interest in being veep, and would turn down the offer" to "I can't really talk about this anymore, and I'm not saying whether I would or wouldn't accept the offer" just at the moment when the vetting process began.

[Mr. Morden]

I would also bet that most, if not all, of the people who say "no comment" are being vetted.

Agreed.  In vice presidentese, "I don't think I'll be picked" means "I'm desperate to be picked", and "I can't say whether I'm being vetted" means "I'm obviously being vetted, but can't tell you, you idiot reporter."

[Mr. Morden]

As recently as April, Jeb Bush said that he'd "consider it" if Romney asked him to be his running mate.

Now he says that he wouldn't accept, and wouldn't agree to a vetting:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/jeb-bush-vp-candidacy-not-in-the-cards-for-me-and-he-can-prove-it/

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[Mr. Morden]

I never discount the possibility that someone may be lying about this stuff, but if Bush and Haley are telling the truth about not being vetted and not being willing to undergo the vet even if they were asked, then the chances of them getting picked is zero.  Everyone has to go through the vetting process in order to be picked.  At least, that's the way it's been for decades, and I don't see Romney of all people overturning that.  Even Palin in 2008 was vetted, in so far as she filled out the questionnaire that the McCain campaign gave her, and turned over all the relevant financial and legal records that the campaign asked for.  Where the McCain campaign dropped the ball was in failing to do much of a deeper investigation of her record in public office.

Anyway, here's a new story on the Romney VP search that suggests that there's at least a chance that Romney will name his running mate early:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47656279

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[Mr. Morden]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

That'd be a terrible move - the genius of the Palin pick was the surprise factor; there was nothing but round-the-clock positive coverage for a full week.  If Palin had 20 more I.Q. points she would've been the best VP choice in history and John McCain would be President today.

The point is that if McCain had leaked the fact that Palin was one of the finalists several weeks in advance, then she would have gotten some media scrutiny before the fact, and people might have actually realized that she was missing those 20 IQ points.  Then McCain could have actually decided to pick someone else if it looked like this wasn't going to work.  Or the campaign at least would have been more prepared for handling her.

[Mr. Morden]

Jindal - interesting...the Natural Born Issue and his poor speaking style are problems.  His access to a powerful ethnic group and lots of money lend to his pick; Louisiana does nothing
to "balance" the ticket geographically where Romney needs balance;

Rubio - great choice by my criteria.  He also has the natural born issue to hurdle;

Baton Rouge and Miami are both in the United States of America.

I think he's alleging that Jindal and Rubio were test tube babies, and thus not naturally born.  Personally, I don't think the voters would hold that against them.

[Mr. Morden]

Jindal joins the list of people who refuses to say whether he is being vetted:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/bobby-jindal-vetted-romney-camp/story?id=16528998#.T9QLJY4dkUU

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul says it would be an honor to be Romney's running mate, but there's no indication that he's being considered:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/08/rand-paul-would-be-an-honor-to-be-romneys-vp/

Kelly Ayotte has been talking to Romney about foreign policy, but it also sounds like she's denying that she's being vetted (though the leadup question isn't quoted here, so it's slightly ambiguous):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/08/could_kelly_ayottes_rapid_rise_lead_to_vp-full.html

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Romney has chosen Cathy McMorris Rodgers as his liaison to the House GOP:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/06/romney-taps-mcmorris-rodgers-as-top-house-surrogate-125189.html

Whether you want to count that as an indication that she's more or less likely to be under consideration for VP is up to you.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Huckabee and Santorum say they have not been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/06/santo-no-background-documents-requested-for-veep-slot-125737.html

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think Pawlenty is the frontrunner, though yeah, a couple of different sources have said that he's popular in Romney's inner circle.  National Journal mentioned it, as did Chuck Todd on MSNBC:

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-daily-rundown/47764844

Btw, McCain has floated Hoeven as a possible Romney running mate:

http://www.jamestownsun.com/event/article/id/162705/group/homepage/

but there's nothing to suggest that the campaign itself is considering him.

It's also interesting that North Carolina is the "audition state" for the VP prospects:

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/hie-thee-to-north-carolina.php

[Mr. Morden]

Burr says he's not being vetted:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/06/12/3312065/sen-richard-burr-im-not-being.html

[Mr. Morden]

An update on what kind of denials people are giving:

Refused to say whether or not they're being vetted (which means they probably are being vetted):

Jindal
Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio
Ryan

Initially said he wasn't being vetted, then sort of backtracked:

Thune

Seemed to deny that she was being vetted, but the quote in the media didn't give the full context of what was being asked, so it's slightly ambiguous:

Ayotte

Have said on the record that they're *not* being vetted:

Burr
Bush
Daniels
Haley
Huckabee
McDonnell
Santorum

No one's asked her recently if she's being vetted, but before the vetting started, she gave an unusually definitive sounding denial of interest in the vice presidency:

Martinez

As far as I can tell, no one has asked them directly any time recently if they're being vetted:

Christie
McMorris-Rodgers
Toomey
everyone else not on this list

[Mr. Morden]

NYT has a new veep selection story here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/us/politics/auditions-for-a-romney-running-mate.html?pagewanted=all

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All of which suggests that Romney is unlikely to make a surprise pick.  Whoever he picks will be one of the names on shortlists being floated to the media before he makes things official.

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Oh, and finally, this was an amusing tidbit about Christie:

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[Mr. Morden]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/romney-says-rubio-is-being-examined-as-possible-running-mate/

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I think this is the first time Romney himself (or anyone in his inner circle, for that matter) has publicly commented on who's being vetted.  Of course, it doesn't necessarily mean that he's telling the truth!

[Mr. Morden]

Here is Politico on the Rubio story:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/06/romney-rubios-being-vetted-126681.html

In brief, both ABC News and the WaPo reported that Rubio wasn't being vetted for VP.  Then the media started asking Romney about that, and he refused to comment.  Then a few hours later, Romney reversed course, and decided to confirm that Rubio is in fact being vetted.  Here is what Romney now says:

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Politico suggests that the campaign was forced to say on the record that Rubio was being vetted, because they don't want to risk doing harm among Hispanic voters.  But who knows.

Meanwhile, Pawlenty fever sweeps the land.  Race42012's supposed Romney insider source predicts that Pawlenty will be Romney's choice for veep:

http://race42012.com/2012/06/19/the-race-4-2012-rumor-mill-final-2012-gop-veepstakes-edition/

And Politico does a story on why Pawlenty is ascendent in the veepstakes:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77619.html

Most amusing detail from that story: Pawlenty is a regular guy because he drives his own car:

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Anyway, the article does a good job of presenting the case for Pawlenty.  I'm starting to lean that way in my own predictions, for the record.  I could definitely see Pawlenty getting the nod.

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[Mr. Morden]

In other news, I'm seeing more and more stories discussing the possibility of Romney naming his running mate in July, rather than waiting until August.  It might happen.  Particularly if it's someone boring like Pawlenty or Portman, who you're not expecting to get a big bounce from anyway, the timing doesn't matter as much, so you might as well get it over with, and have someone else to help you campaign and raise money.

The Olympics is July 27 - August 12.  So if the announcement is being made in July, I guess it would probably be mid-July.  I doubt it would happen a week or less before the Olympics.

[Mr. Morden]

CBS has this to say about the short list:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57456927-503544/whos-still-in-the-running-to-be-romneys-running-mate/

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They also link to a video showing Ayotte denying that she's been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting.  (Her earlier comment on this seemed more ambiguous, because the quote was truncated.)

So, for the record, the list of people who've said that they have *not* been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting info, who have not ended up backtracking (so far):

Ayotte
Burr
Bush
Daniels
Haley
Huckabee
McDonnell
Santorum

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, he did un-deny.  His new line is:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-06-13/john-thune-romney-vice-president/55586686/1

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His initial denial was just a couple of days after the Romney campaign started sending out questionnaires to the candidates, so it's possible they just hadn't gotten to him yet.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm telling you, the pick is going to be Rob Portman.  He has the experience, the capability, and the smarts, and he even looks Vice Presidential, and Presidential for that matter.

So you've given up on Lindsay Graham?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=109384.msg2328874#msg2328874

[Mr. Morden]

I think Thune is in a tough spot, he's only 51, so he's waiting for either 2016 or 2020 for his shot at the white house.  In 2016, it would likely be a Jeb Bush/Thune ticket if Romney loses.  If Romney wins, then in 2020, Thune will face Portman and Rubio in the presidential primaries.  Thune would easily win the Iowa primaries being so close. 

I don't know.  I think the fact that Thune passed on a presidential run in 2012 means that he probably doesn't care so much about becoming president.  He might simply be as happy to become Senate Majority Leader as he would to become president.

[Mr. Morden]

This article by CBS claims that Cathy McMorris Rodgers recently told National Journal that she's not being vetted, but I can't find the original reporting by National Journal:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57456390-503544/veep-question-of-the-day-whos-being-vetted/

Also, the veepstakes reaches self-parody as 1.5 term Rep. Tom Graves of Georgia refuses to say whether he's being vetted:

http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/graves-mum-amid-vp-1463348.html