Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[milhouse24]

Looks like if Jeb is picked, it really would be a last minute surprise.  The liberal spin will be that Romney is desperate and throwing a hail mary with Jeb, among other negative things.  If Jeb doesn't allow the vetting, it seems he really is off the list.  Of the names that have allowed vetting, it seems they are relatively young and new politicians, with 2 years of service or less.  Portman, Ayotte, Ryan, and Rubio aren't BIG NAME candidates yet and their experience level is low.  It seems that the group is mostly for PR purposes and not realistic options.  Perhaps Romney wants to vet them for Cabinet positions.  Of the vetting group, Portman only seems like a realistic choice.

[milhouse24]

Those people aren't big names? *facepalm*

There's a difference being a Big "media" name and a Big "well-deserved" name.  Most of those people who are being vetted now have served less than a term in their current position.  Sarah Palin is a big name, but I would not pick her to be VP. 

John McCain, John Kerry, Joe Biden are Big Names with experience. 

John Edwards and Obama were just big names built by media exposure. 

[milhouse24]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/30/11963716-thune-says-hes-open-to-being-romneys-vp?lite

It looks like Thune has changed his tune and wants to be VP.  If Romney does not choose Thune, then it will be severely disappointing in political strategy.  All of the other VP candidates are mediocre compared to Thune.  He's a rising star and he'll win over southern evangelicals and midwesterners including Iowa.  Good VP picks are usually not a surprise or newbie selections.  You can usually spot a strong VP candidate at least 2 years before election day.  Newbie media flavors of the month like Rubio don't have the chops to handle national office at this point in their lives. 

[milhouse24]

Thune is the next Quayle.

What makes you think Thune is like Quayle?

[milhouse24]

...Anyway, here's a new story on the Romney VP search that suggests that there's at least a chance that Romney will name his running mate early:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47656279

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There isn't a lot of precedent for this, though I think it's a good idea. Why not go ahead and form the ticket and start introducing yourself to the American public? But if you look back to at least the last 30+ years, only once was a VP nominee named more than a week out from the convention, and that was John Edwards in '04 (named on July 6, 20 days before the start of the DNC). But both Obama and McCain picked Biden and Palin just 3 days before their respective conventions. Lieberman was announced on August 7, 2000, and the convention started on August 14th. Cheney was named July 25th, 2000, and the convention was just 6 days later. Same is true for Dole-Kemp, Clinton-Gore, Bush-Quayle, Dukakis-Bentsen, Mondale-Ferraro (I stopped looking at this point.)

I doubt Romney breaks the tradition on this, but I'd like it if he does. If he pulls a John Kerry, 20 days before the RNC would be August 7th.

It might look desperate at 20 days, to get publicity and whatever.  2 weeks should be good.  

In the past, it was more about the "surprise" factor and building up suspense.  Obama made a big media circus out of it for several weeks with his 3 finalists.  

I don't think Romney wants to shock or surprise people, he just wants to announce it and then start campaigning hard against Obama.  I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

[milhouse24]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

He'll probably leak the top 5 names.  But he's not going to build up suspense by announcing at the last minute before the convention, and having the media camp out at people's houses.  He'll release the finals list a month before, and then announce the VP 2 weeks before the convention. 

[milhouse24]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

That'd be a terrible move - the genius of the Palin pick was the surprise factor; there was nothing but round-the-clock positive coverage for a full week.  If Palin had 20 more I.Q. points she would've been the best VP choice in history and John McCain would be President today.

Of course, if Palin had a higher IQ, she would not be such a surprise pick. 
She was a shock pick because she was a newbie, young, naive, and unsure candidate.  If she were anywhere near a smart candidate, the press would have been aware of her presence.
 
In this 24-7 media age, every competent smart politician will have a strong media presence that should never shock the media coverage. 
If you pick an "out-of-nowhere" shocking rube VP, then you are severely doing something wrong.  McCain gambled on Palin and threw a hail mary, and it was a foolish dangerous gamble that proved how dangerous and incompentent it is picking an unknown incompetent person as VP. 

You can play games with the media all day, but if you try to hard to fool the media, you're probably going to end up fooling yourself and making a fool out of yourself. 

Transparency is important because it proves you are a smart/competent person.  When people hide from the press, they have something embarrassing to hide.  McCain hid Palin from the press and it proved that he was the one looking stupid in the end. 

Besides, if Romney picks Thune or Portman, it will be hardly a surprise.  The only "surprise" candidate worth the "surprise" is Jeb Bush since the liberal media would attack Jeb personally from day one. 

[milhouse24]

I will always believe Palin was actually a net-positive.

According to exit polling, she was. http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/78407/did-palin-hurt-mccain Of the 60% of 2008 voters who said Palin was a factor in their vote, 56% voted for McCain-Palin, just 43% for Obama-Biden. So yeah, those numbers indicate that despite the media narrative, she may have been a net positive for the ticket. Sure, McCain lost by a fair margin (7 pts), but who's to say he wouldn't have lost by 8 or 9 points, or more, in the event Palin hadn't been on the ticket? That Democratic turnout edge of 7% could have become 8, 9, or 10% without her.

I think Palin helped a little bit, but most VP should help solidify support.  But I'm sure a lot of people who may have been unsure of Obama, became more confident in him with Biden instead of McCain with Palin, even though they won't acknowledge it.  The fact that she was a woman, just improved the enthusiasm factor, and she is young/good-looking photogenic, and is a good stump speaker helps. 

But if McCain picked TPaw, he might have been more competitive in the MidWest and MidAtlantic.  VP Romney may have helped in the rockies. 

McCain went for media pizzaz instead of campaigning on competence.

[milhouse24]

Which makes sense, because Obama was surely gonna win on that same media pizzazz if he was left unchallenged on that front. Turns out he did anyway, but at least Johnny tried.

Even if Sarah were somewhat competent, the swing states never went to McCain.  Did polling ever show McCain ahead in the swing states after the RNC?

Sarah may have been a savvy media pick, but as far as political voting, it never translated into winning swing voters, or female voters.  Just because Sarah is a woman, didn't mean that female voters would rush to McCain and hopes he has a heart attack to elevate Palin.  Politics and GOTV is about shaking hands and building voter relationships, it takes more than one good month to become president or vice president. 

[milhouse24]

Ayotte - good selection;

Christie - I love the guy but too Northeastern; Christie needs to finish what he started in NJ;

Daniels - His wife will kill this possibility;

Haley -  Do not believe she helps the ticket in any way;

Jindal - interesting...the Natural Born Issue and his poor speaking style are problems.  His access to a powerful ethnic group and lots of money lend to his pick; Louisiana does nothing
to "balance" the ticket geographically where Romney needs balance;

McDonnell - no opinion;

McMorris Rodgers - no opinion;

Pawlenty - not a bad choice.  Provides some balance. 

Portman - does nothing for me, but he is geographically located quite well for the ticket;

Rubio - great choice by my criteria.  He also has the natural born issue to hurdle;
 
Ryan - love the man, but his place is in the House.  He is, like I am, a Randian.  Brilliant mind.  Excellent speaker.  His family is his priority and if he becomes the Speaker instead of numb nuts Boehner he will truly help our country.

Thune - OK pick. 

==================
Scott Walker is definitely a possible pick.

More later.

Adam

What is the deal with Mitch Daniels' wife?  Does she have a clouded past?  Is she simply adamant that Mitch become VP? 

I just don't understand what the comments I've read about her being a problem are referring to.  Many thanks.

Yes, she had an affair with another married man, divorced Mitch and left their 4 children to move to California with the man.  After five years, she moved back to Indiana and re-married Mitch.  Also, the boyfriend's now ex-wife hates Mrs. Daniels for ruining her life and will go nuclear on her in the press. 

[milhouse24]

I think Rubio is a reach and a desperate move for such a young person.  The media will see it as a desperate move to win Hispanics. 

It seems that it almost 99% going to be TPaw, and I think Romney will lose the election.  TPaw doesn't help with Virginia.  He might help in Minnesota and Michigan, but that's a real stretch.  I think Thune is way better, but Thune probably doesn't want it and is waiting for his turn in 2016. 

TPaw is super safe, and super forgettable.  He'll be the invisible man who can't hurt but can't help romney at all.  Biden and Obama will go hard at Romney, and TPaw will be shrinking flower. 

[milhouse24]

NJ's rankings: Portman #1, T-Paw #2, Ryan #3.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/your-favorite-vice-hotline-s-veepstakes-power-rankings-20120610

I still fail to see why Pawlenty is better than someone like Thune or Burr. Regardless of what you think of Ryan's recent proposals, the man is too controversial to be Romney's VP pick.

Does anyone even like Pawlenty?  He has a constituency of zero.  I don't even think evangelicals like him that much.  Maybe I'll just call the Romney campaign and tell them it's an awful idea to pick Pawlenty.  I know Mitt is trying to win through default, just doing barely enough and cautiously enough to win 51% of the vote, but winning with such a weak VP makes Mitt look like a weak president.  Pawlenty is a virtual ghost on the campaign, and that's not because of his skin color, but the lack of excitement or strong stump speech he can generate among swing voters.  Pawlenty will get VP because he's sucking up to Romney and his inner circle, just like Dick Cheney with Dubya. 

Thune is the best pick from the eyes of the average Republican or swing voter.  But it seems that Thune and his advisors are ambivalent about being VP.  So, Romney is going to be an idiot and choose the person sucking up to him the most, instead of going out and convincing better candidates to join his ticket. 

I don't know why Burr is so quiet.  I would think he would be more ambitious and pro-active about getting VP.  He doesn't seem to be talking to any Romney advisors. 

Romney thinks he can be the next Reagan, but Reagan had more passion than 100 mitt bots.  Voters don't vote for resumes, they vote for passionate personality.

[milhouse24]

Yeah I rate Hoeven as a good choice if Romney was to do a dark horse pick - although North Dakota isn't a swing state, he has experience as a governor and a Senator, and also was the head of a bank in North Dakota, giving him economic credibility. Isn't too conservative, and is surprisingly young despite experience.

But I don't see it happening.

I'm just puzzled as to why less experienced, younger politicians are getting so much press and attention from the Romney camp.  It seems like older, credible, and prominent politicians like Thune, Burr, and others are not even considered.  Maybe they have too many skeletons, but being a powerful respected voice is a good thing that can only come from years of public service.  Romney is too safe for his own good, he just barely won the nomination, and it looks like he is trying to squeak by the general election, and I think that's a weak move by him.  Dubya Bush can pull off close elections, but Romney can't. 

[milhouse24]

I don't think Pawlenty is the frontrunner, though yeah, a couple of different sources have said that he's popular in Romney's inner circle.  National Journal mentioned it, as did Chuck Todd on MSNBC:

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-daily-rundown/47764844

Btw, McCain has floated Hoeven as a possible Romney running mate:

http://www.jamestownsun.com/event/article/id/162705/group/homepage/

but there's nothing to suggest that the campaign itself is considering him.

It's also interesting that North Carolina is the "audition state" for the VP prospects:

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/hie-thee-to-north-carolina.php

I think Pawlenty has always been the frontrunner in Romney's mind, at least as the safest default candidate.  TPaw is the safety school of VP candidates.  There are a lot of wildcard options and newish politicians like portman and rubio.  But as far as potential VP candidates from the batch of presidential debaters this year, its always been TPaw.  TPaw was the finalist to Palin in Mccain's camp.  For some reason, he is held in high esteem by certain gop campaign members.  He has an easy-going, pleasing personality.  He's young, mildly attractive.  He's very safe, like a naive younger brother. 

But I think Romney can do better in VP picks, but only if he wants to do better, and take a risk with someone more well-known, more established, but also his own man, and not a romney suck-up.  Americans don't want idiotic yes men, they want visionaries. 

I think Romney wants a safe anti-Palin; and TPaw is at the 50-50 mark that he is not as bad as Palin in experience or intelligence or scandals.  But being scandal-free should not be the only deciding point for a VP. 

[milhouse24]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/romneys-great-utah-adventure-the-guest-list-and-schedule-leaks-out/

Rubio's not going to the fundraiser, which means he realizes he won't be picked (or considered).  I don't think Rubio even wants to give up his financial information to future campaign staff rivals in 2016.  Its a lose-lose scenario for him to go through with the vetting. 

The real VP pick will be at this fundraiser getting face time with Romney.  I think the finalists will be Pawlenty, Portman, and Thune.  I'm really surprised Thune is getting no media coverage, but maybe thats just what he wants.  I feel in the end, it will be Portman because Ohio is a must-win.

[milhouse24]

rob portman
john thune
tim pawlenty

I think it will be Portman in the end, because Romney needs to win Ohio, and he can use Portman's network and GOTV volunteers to accomplish that.  This could also spread to parts of Michigan, which is north of Ohio; and maybe to western PA.  In addition, northern virginians may like Portman as one of them (ie, a government worker bee).   

I think Thune is in a tough spot, he's only 51, so he's waiting for either 2016 or 2020 for his shot at the white house.  In 2016, it would likely be a Jeb Bush/Thune ticket if Romney loses.  If Romney wins, then in 2020, Thune will face Portman and Rubio in the presidential primaries.  Thune would easily win the Iowa primaries being so close. 

[milhouse24]

I think Thune is in a tough spot, he's only 51, so he's waiting for either 2016 or 2020 for his shot at the white house.  In 2016, it would likely be a Jeb Bush/Thune ticket if Romney loses.  If Romney wins, then in 2020, Thune will face Portman and Rubio in the presidential primaries.  Thune would easily win the Iowa primaries being so close. 

I don't know.  I think the fact that Thune passed on a presidential run in 2012 means that he probably doesn't care so much about becoming president.  He might simply be as happy to become Senate Majority Leader as he would to become president.

That might be true, but he passed on 2012 because of the TARP votes and at the time, the Tea Partiers had a lot of power.  Even thinking about running means that at least 1% of his mind would like to be president some day.  It all comes down to timing and guts.  In eight years, Portman would be oldish, and easy to beat.  He would also run in 4 years on his own or as VP. 

[milhouse24]

He's being vetted, so obviously is at least willing to entertain the idea.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/27/paul_ryan_aiming_for_ways__means_instead_of_vp___114623.html

If Paul Ryan wants to be president some day, he'll need to run for Senate or Governor.  Kohl is retiring so he should have run to replace him.  I guess he could run for governor after Walker.

[milhouse24]

He's being vetted, so obviously is at least willing to entertain the idea.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/27/paul_ryan_aiming_for_ways__means_instead_of_vp___114623.html

If Paul Ryan wants to be president some day, he'll need to run for Senate or Governor.  Kohl is retiring so he should have run to replace him.  I guess he could run for governor after Walker.

Budget/W&M has much more power than a freshman senator does.

Governor and President have more power than that.

[milhouse24]

You can't precisely call it, but historical precedent is a pretty good guide. That's how I arrived at my Palin prediction in '08 well before it was fashionable. Precedent (Dole, GHWB, Quayle, Kemp, Palin) suggests Romney selects a younger person from another wing of the party. So I'd be surprised if it was someone other than Pawlenty or Ryan.

If that is the case, out of the usual suspects, I think Thune has the biggest difference with Mitt.  He's evangelical and has served in Congress. 

Portman is also a Congressional insider, but doesn't have much of a voter bloc outside of Ohio. 

I'm not sure about Jindal, he's still very young, Catholic, and I don't think he has a voter bloc outside of LA.  He wouldn't appeal to hispanics. 

The other option would choosing a Woman or a Hispanic Woman. 

[milhouse24]

Thune is not going to juice the base, has done no surrogacy for Romney and has never met Romney one-on-one so far as we know. An establishmentarian who won't juice the base and has never been publicly vetted. Not happening.

Thune met Romney at the big GOP retreat a few weeks ago when Condi Rice gave a speech that everyone liked.  Rubio was not invited to that retreat (Rubio is not being vetted, and will decline to be vetted because he knows he has no shot at being picked). 

I just mentioned Thune because in many ways he is the polar opposite of Romney, and if the GOP pattern remains of picking someone the opposite for the ticket.  I don't necessarily think "choosing an opposite" is a wise choice, but sometimes it can be advantageous, especially since romney has an evangelical GOTV problem. 

Also, maybe Thune is being quiet on purpose to increase the "Surprise factor" 
Still, he should be campaigning more for Romney, like the other guys and gals.  Maybe Thune is going to turn Romney down and wait for his own chance in 2016.

[milhouse24]

Pawlenty was practically screaming about how un-boring he is, even offering to "show my tats" for Cavuto.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78687.html

Wow. Trying too hard there T-Paw.

Your Bane Photo is disrespectful of the victims of the Colorado shooting. 
But I suppose to some lefty people its funny comparing Romney to a Murderer. 

[milhouse24]

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

McCain never seriously looked at him at all in the final round. He was simply used as a decoy and wasn't even told he was a decoy.

Source?

My recollection is that the reporting had McCain polling his senior aides to see who they thought would be the best pick politically, and Pawlenty had the most support in McCain's inner circle, but McCain overruled them to go with Palin.

That's also what Game Change says- most of them wanted Pawlenty but Schmidt said they needed a game-changer. McCain agreed with him. Plus Palin at that point in her career was a better fit with McCain's mavericky brand.

But Pawlenty was only considered because he was "outside washington" to McCain's "inside washington" status.

Romney "Should" go with an "inside washington" person in the Senate or House, just because it would help soothe voters that a one term governor will know how to cajole Senators into passing his legislation. 

I'm resigned to the fact that it will be T-Paw, and that somehow T-Paw will miraculously bring out the GOP vote in Iowa and Wisconsin.  Otherwise, its a total lost cause for Romney and he should give up on Ohio and Virginia as well.