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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Who will win Wisconsin's 2012 gubernatorial recall election?
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Poll
Question: Who will win Wisconsin's 2012 gubernatorial recall election?
Barrett by single digits   -13 (14.6%)
Barrett by double digits   -4 (4.5%)
Walker by single digits   -62 (69.7%)
Walker by double digits   -10 (11.2%)
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Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: Who will win Wisconsin's 2012 gubernatorial recall election?  (Read 3743 times)
greenforest32
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« on: May 26, 2012, 12:07:26 pm »
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Whoops, messed up the poll options there last time Tongue

Unfortunately I'm thinking option 3 is likely
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Senator bore
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2012, 12:13:45 pm »
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Walker, but slightly closer than the polls say, so 3.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2012, 12:18:09 pm »
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Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
Zioneer
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2012, 02:15:49 pm »
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I think Barrett will win by the skin of his nose, probably within a percentage point.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2012, 03:15:46 pm »
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Walker by 4
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2012, 03:22:32 pm »
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Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question.  
« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 03:24:10 pm by Fuzzybigfoot »Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2012, 03:24:10 pm »
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Walker by 1 to 2 points.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2012, 03:28:54 pm »
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Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question. 
Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?
« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 03:31:35 pm by Jmfcst Napoleon »Logged

When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2012, 03:34:34 pm »
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Walker by 5 or so.

The bloody Democratic primary ended Barret's chances. Walker's base is energized and united.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2012, 03:37:31 pm »
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Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question. 
Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?

April 29th, according to Marquette.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2012, 03:43:09 pm »
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Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question. 
Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?

April 29th, according to Marquette.

No, that was Walker +1.
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
SJoyce
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2012, 03:52:07 pm »
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Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question. 
Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?

April 29th, according to Marquette.

No, that was Walker +1.

In their LV poll; their RV poll was Barnett +1.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2012, 03:59:38 pm »
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Yeah but there is no reason to consider a RV poll when presented with an LV poll. The point is that Barrett doesn't have a chance and never did. This was a stupid idea and a terrible strategic move for Democrats. Walker will get a newer and stronger mandate allowing him to go on a right wing rampage and better challengers than Barrett will be scared to run against him in 2014.
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
Frodo
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2012, 04:03:40 pm »
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Walker by high single-digits -any higher, and Romney will begin to look at him as a serious VP contender. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2012, 10:23:36 pm »
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Walker, and we'll be very embarrassed.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2012, 10:27:05 pm »
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What Frodo said.

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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Marokai Besieged
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2012, 10:42:00 pm »
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Walker, and the entire effort has been something of an embarrassing waste. I understand the impulse that led to it, but Democrats and Unions have made the classic mistake we always make; expecting voters to persistently (and consistently) hold onto grievances and actually take political action and vote based on an issue they purport to be upset by.

We expect too much of the voters sometimes, and this is going to be our result. All involved really should've known better, and waited until 2014, where they could've simply stoked the fire and used it as a talking point until then, keeping the outrage just at a simmering with those who cared the most, rather than try to keep the entire state caring enough to actually recall him over it. The recurring amnesia amongst the "swing" and "moderate" voters was never going to let this happen from the word go.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2012, 01:35:14 am »
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Walker is favored, though I wouldn't count out Barrett just yet. We haven't seen a poll in almost a week, and Walker has failed to increase his margin despite the air barrage. If the Democrats can mount a successful GOTV campaign, they can counter Walker's air superiority and win.

I'd give Walker a 2/3 shot of winning.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2012, 01:47:13 am »
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Walker by about 3 or so.

Didn't Walker overpoll in 2010 already ? Polling 9% ahead of Barrett and getting only a 6% win ?
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IBDD
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2012, 12:47:49 pm »
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Walker by 5
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Great ambition is the passion of a great character. Those endowed with it may perform very good or very bad acts. All depends on the principles which direct them.-Napoleon Bonaparte


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benconstine
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2012, 12:51:04 pm »
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Walker by 3-5
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"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2012, 03:14:15 pm »
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Walker will win by 1-3%.
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Kevin
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2012, 04:35:46 pm »
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Walker by 3-5+% but I wouldn't be surprised if Barrett won given that Democrats seem to do better in close WI elections then the Republicans.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2012, 10:41:22 pm »
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I'm going full-on wishful thinking and saying it'll be Barrett by about 2-3%
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Miles
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« Reply #24 on: May 29, 2012, 12:11:25 am »
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Walker by 2 or 3.
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