Romney's chances in Wisconsin

[Devils30]

Assuming Walker wins the recall a lot of Republicans are going to be excited about their prospects. However I think it's a red herring for them. The state has a pretty constant D+2-3 PVI and its demographics are fairly steady, therefore unlikely to swing significantly one way. The recall electorate is also much more midterm like and polls show more Republicans generally plan to vote. Not to mention Romney isn't the best candidate for the state either.

[Senator Napoleon]

40-50%. The trends in this state couldn't be more obvious to the unbiased political analyst.

[Devils30]

By the time the fall comes around the Walker recall election is old news and the focus is on the presidential race. If Obama is tied or ahead nationally there's virtually no chance Romney can win the state.

[Senator Snowstalker]

40-50%. The trends in this state couldn't be more obvious to the unbiased political analyst.

As in how the state trended Democratic in both 2004 and 2008?

Wisconsin, as usual, will vote slightly more Democratic than the national average.

[Nichlemn]

If Obama falls a lot more with uneducated whites relative to educated whites, as polls indicate, then Wisconsin may be a tipping point state.

[NHI]

If Walker wins the recall (which I expect he will), then Wisconsin will be in play, and more so than it is now.

[Nichlemn]

If Walker wins the recall (which I expect he will), then Wisconsin will be in play, and more so than it is now.

Why? I mean it's something of an indication of Republican support, but do you think there some kind of discrete energising effect that will occur if Walker wins by 1 vote but not if he loses by 1 vote?

[kingthlayer]

I've read that the improving economy in Wisconsin is helping Walker a lot with his recall. The unemployment rate is falling in the state, which the governor has been able to tout.

If that is the case, Obama will benefit from this, NOT Romney.

I expect Wisconsin to gradually revert to the status quo (Obama ahead, Obama winning the state) once the recall is over.

[True Federalist]

If the recall election was in November, or even in October or September then it might have an effect significant enough to put the State in play in a close election.

Coming so early, the only way this might put Wisconsin in the position of being the state that puts Romney over 270 would be if it is Obama/Biden v. Romney/Walker in November.

[Tender Branson]

Those chances only exist if he picks Ryan as VP.

Otherwise Obama by 5-10 points.

[Kevin]

WI at the moment's going to be close but Romney can certainly win it. Alot IMO depends on if and by how much Walker win's the recall.

[Vosem]

If Walker wins the recall (which I expect he will), then Wisconsin will be in play, and more so than it is now.

Why? I mean it's something of an indication of Republican support, but do you think there some kind of discrete energising effect that will occur if Walker wins by 1 vote but not if he loses by 1 vote?

It's well-documented that public approval and support rises after an election victory and drops after an election defeat. So, yes, there actually is a 'discrete energising effect'.

[Emperor SJoyce]

Romney's chances? Maybe 20-30%. Wisconsin is gonna be like Pennsylvaia or Michigan; GOP's gonna make a few gains in what are now swing states, and those swing states will swing to Obama.

[krazen1211]

Quite high of course. The new voting patterns in WOW will give him a solid shot.

[Gass3268]

His chances are extremely low. Dane County is fastest growing county in the state and it is getting more progressive each year. African Americans in Milwaukee have not turned out that well in recent elections but that should change with Obama on the top of the ticket. The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats. Lastly, the 5-10% of Democrats that don't believe in recalls and won't be voting in next weeks election will be back in November. All of these factors should be able to cancel out the circle of ignorance and the Northwoods boondocks.     

[hopper]

40-50%. The trends in this state couldn't be more obvious to the unbiased political analyst.

As in how the state trended Democratic in both 2004 and 2008?

Wisconsin, as usual, will vote slightly more Democratic than the national average.

The 2004 Presidential Election Results from Wisconsin were very very tight. The 2008 Presidential Election yes Wisconsin trended a little over the National Average voting Dem by like 4 points over the national average.

[BaldEagle1991]

Very very low. Although he will perform well there, but I can't imagine in a state where there is a lot of union workers and liberals I can't see someone like Romney win WI.

[kingthlayer]

I wonder if it is possible that a Scott Walker victory will depress Democratic turnout in November, given Obama's isolation from this race, and the unwillingness of the DNC to get involved. Labor may be feeling spiteful.

[krazen1211]

His chances are extremely low. Dane County is fastest growing county in the state and it is getting more progressive each year. African Americans in Milwaukee have not turned out that well in recent elections but that should change with Obama on the top of the ticket. The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats. Lastly, the 5-10% of Democrats that don't believe in recalls and won't be voting in next weeks election will be back in November. All of these factors should be able to cancel out the circle of ignorance and the Northwoods boondocks.     

Actually, St. Croix county grew quite a bit faster. And is nicely Republican too.

Dane County of course can't outvote the entire state. See Prosser.

[Gass3268]

His chances are extremely low. Dane County is fastest growing county in the state and it is getting more progressive each year. African Americans in Milwaukee have not turned out that well in recent elections but that should change with Obama on the top of the ticket. The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats. Lastly, the 5-10% of Democrats that don't believe in recalls and won't be voting in next weeks election will be back in November. All of these factors should be able to cancel out the circle of ignorance and the Northwoods boondocks.     

Actually, St. Croix county grew quite a bit faster. And is nicely Republican too.

Dane County of course can't outvote the entire state. See Prosser.

You are correct, but from July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2011 Dane County added 6,769 people compared to St. Croix adding 516 people. http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2011/CO-EST2011-05.html

Of course Dane County can't outvote the entire state, but it's one of the many factors that gives the state its liberal leaning, especially in Presidential elections. 

[The Head Beagle]

The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats.  

This I'm not so confident of, although it did definitely trend that way in 2008.

As some others have discussed in different parts of the forum, Obama did unusually well in areas of the midwest that are manufacturing-oriented but have a Republican tradition and have more medium-sized manufacturers that lack the mass union tradition of the big auto and steelmakers: places like western Ohio, much of Indiana, and eastern Wisconsin.

It's very early to know really how subregions like this are going to go, but my very preliminary sense is that Obama is not that popular in these areas and they are likely to swing back.

[Gass3268]

The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats.  

This I'm not so confident of, although it did definitely trend that way in 2008.

As some others have discussed in different parts of the forum, Obama did unusually well in areas of the midwest that are manufacturing-oriented but have a Republican tradition and have more medium-sized manufacturers that lack the mass union tradition of the big auto and steelmakers: places like western Ohio, much of Indiana, and eastern Wisconsin.

It's very early to know really how subregions like this are going to go, but my very preliminary sense is that Obama is not that popular in these areas and they are likely to swing back.

Im not saying this area won't swing back to the Republicans, but in general this area is slowly moving towards the Democrats. Right now I would say its Republican leaning tossup region of the state. Brown County will go for Romney because of the conservative Green Bay suburbs, but I think Outagamie County and especially Winnebago County will be close in November. Prosser only won Winnebago County by about 2,000 votes.

[AmericanNation]

Walker and Obama currently have the middle in the state.  After Walker wins he could start working to move 'his' middle toward Romney, something he's been to busy to do lately.  Then, it comes down to turnout.  Wisconsin might have the best state GOP in the country right now, hence Reince Priebus's promotion to RNC chair.  Look at the local star power the GOP has.  Walker, Ryan, Johnson, Thompson(probably) vs Nobody on the dem side.  People have seen the dark underside of democrat politics for the last year and a half and may punish them.  The WisDems need to go into the wilderness for a while.     

Fox Valley leans GOP, you may see a trend toward 'leans slightly less GOP'  ...whatever. 

Dane County isn't out growing the combined WOW counties or the rest of the state.  Waukesha basically counterweights Dane by itself.  The WOW's will grow to counterweight Dane AND Milwaukee county eventually.  The rest of the state is lean to strong GOP.

If Romney runs 51% nationally, than Wisconsin is likely in the Romney column.             

[WhyteRain]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

[Comrade Shmoo]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.