Romney's chances in Wisconsin

[Donerail]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.

I'd assume it's something like this?

[pbrower2a]

Quite high of course. The new voting patterns in WOW will give him a solid shot.

Romney wins the state only if President Obama collapses overall as a leader (no sign yet) or Governor Scott Walker rigs the statewide election.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.

I'd assume it's something like this?

Maybe this is more like it:

[AmericanNation]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.

I don't think you understand that 2008 has almost zero relevance to 2012 in a state like Wisconsin.  It's basically a 50/50 state that can swing 2% either way.  Tidal wave climates make some weird things happen.  I see zero chance of Obama having another tidal wave at his back.     

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.

I don't think you understand that 2008 has almost zero relevance to 2012 in a state like Wisconsin.  It's basically a 50/50 state that can swing 2% either way.  Tidal wave climates make some weird things happen.  I see zero chance of Obama having another tidal wave at his back.     

Yes, that's why Bush narrowly took it in '04.

[AmericanNation]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.

I don't think you understand that 2008 has almost zero relevance to 2012 in a state like Wisconsin.  It's basically a 50/50 state that can swing 2% either way.  Tidal wave climates make some weird things happen.  I see zero chance of Obama having another tidal wave at his back.    

Yes, that's why Bush narrowly took it in '04.

He basically did.  

Infamous incidents of:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-01-24-tires-slashed_x.htm
 Gwen Moore's Son and other dems slashing the tires of 25 GOP vans on election day 2004
--Vote suppression

http://rnla.org/blogs/blogs/public/archive/2011/11/21/smokes-for-votes-then-cigs-for-sigs-now.aspx
Many including a New York Millionaire democrat operative caught bribing people to vote in exchange for cigarettes in 2004
-- electioneering

There were a lot of incidents of mentally unaware seniors magically voting via absentee ballot despite not being able to spell their name.      

A dozen college students admitted to voting twice.  

Voting drives packed the rolls with thousands of fake names.    
--Vote fraud

That was all proved criminally.  Some other fraud may have occurred that benefited the dems considering how easy it is to do it without getting caught and they got caught so often.      

Needless to say, the proved criminal activity on the dem side combined with the 0.4% or 11,000 votes Kerry "won" by, did not inspire confidence in the integrity of the election.      
 

[Lincoln Republican]

Not good.

As reported by CNN, exit polling in the recall vote showing even should Walker the Republican win the recall, and I believe he will, voters in Wisconsin still favor Obama over Romney 51 to 45.

But this is only June, and who knows how uynemployment and the economy will look like in November.

[old timey villain]

Not good.

CNN exit polling in the recall vote showing even should Walker the Republican win the recall, and I believe he will, voters in Wisconsin still favor Obama over Romney 51 to 45.

But this is only June, and who knows how uynemployment and the economy will look like in November.

Yes, I'm sure if you wish hard enough the economy will get much much worse.

[Lincoln Republican]

Not good.

CNN exit polling in the recall vote showing even should Walker the Republican win the recall, and I believe he will, voters in Wisconsin still favor Obama over Romney 51 to 45.

But this is only June, and who knows how uynemployment and the economy will look like in November.

Yes, I'm sure if you wish hard enough the economy will get much much worse.

Cynic!

[pepper11]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

[LiberalJunkie]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

LOL no.

[pepper11]

You can laugh at the numbers all you want. Go believe those PPP polls. Obviously there will be a lot of events that may change the course of the election in the next 6 months. But at this point, the true weighted exit polls show that the people that voted today would have picked Romney over Obama. I'll take that as a more accurate view of the electorate than any automated phone survey anyday.  If Wisco voted tomorrow, Romney wins. And I guarantee Team Obama thinks its a toss us.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

LOL no.

How is it a no?

Bush only lost WI by 1% (11,000) votes in 2004, and much less in 2000 where he only lost by less than 6,000!.....2008 doesn't count because McCain stood NO chance after the perception of the GOP after Bush's second term. NONE. Palin didn't help either, mind.

Whereas, a few months before the 2012 election, Walker is currently winning in a landslide.

Trends, trends, trends. To ignore trends would be naive. Anything can happen in 5 months, sure. But as of June 2012, I think WI gets slotted back into the "toss up" column akin to the Bush/Kerry margin, and within the margin of error for a Romney win.

Hardly illogical thinking, no?

[Devils30]

The exit poll with Walker +4 had Obama +12. Adjust it for the final margin of Walker's likely 6-9 pt win and it's Obama +6-8 just like every poll currently has. It is very unlikely that Wisconsin will push Romney over 270. He will only win there if he's already won nationally. Same goes for Obama regarding Florida, North Carolina.

[All Along The Watchtower]

LOL at the GOP hackery in this thread.

[NVGonzalez]

LOL at the GOP hackery in this thread.

[LastVoter]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

There is no exit poll Barrett bias, absentee ballots could not be "exit polled".

[tmthforu94]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

There is no exit poll Barrett bias, absentee ballots could not be "exit polled".

Exit polls did not make that much of a difference. There was clearly a bias towards Barrett, considering it said he was tied and he lost by 7-8 points. Wasn't even that close - around same margin as McCain and Obama.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

LOL at the GOP hackery in this thread.

Well, thank you for your objective contribution to the thread.

[Alcon]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

There is no exit poll Barrett bias, absentee ballots could not be "exit polled".

Exit polls did not make that much of a difference. There was clearly a bias towards Barrett, considering it said he was tied and he lost by 7-8 points. Wasn't even that close - around same margin as McCain and Obama.

It was about as close to a tie as it was to McCain/Obama.  Obama won by about 14 points.

[LastVoter]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

LOL no.

How is it a no?

Bush only lost WI by 1% (11,000) votes in 2004, and much less in 2000 where he only lost by less than 6,000!.....2008 doesn't count because McCain stood NO chance after the perception of the GOP after Bush's second term. NONE. Palin didn't help either, mind.

Whereas, a few months before the 2012 election, Walker is currently winning in a landslide.

Trends, trends, trends. To ignore trends would be naive. Anything can happen in 5 months, sure. But as of June 2012, I think WI gets slotted back into the "toss up" column akin to the Bush/Kerry margin, and within the margin of error for a Romney win.

Hardly illogical thinking, no?

It's not a toss-up unless the Obama campaign is as poor as the Wisconsin Dem party. Obama wouldn't allow himself to get destroyed in the air, and his GOTV effort would be better. It's a "Tilt Obama".

[President von Cat]

If Scott Walker got to take credit for job creation in the state, by extension so does Obama.

[WhyteRain]

If Obama falls a lot more with uneducated whites relative to educated whites, as polls indicate, then Wisconsin may be a tipping point state.

Don't forget there's a difference between "educated" and "schooled". 

[WhyteRain]

My prediction made last year of Romney winning Wisconsin (or more accurately, since I didn't know who would be the GOP nominee, of Obama losing Wisconsin) looks even more accurate this morning.

[WhyteRain]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

I see I already commented, pre-recall election, on this prospect.