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Author Topic: Romney's chances in Wisconsin  (Read 3377 times)
AmericanNation
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« Reply #50 on: June 07, 2012, 11:03:47 am »
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http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning. 
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brittain33
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« Reply #51 on: June 07, 2012, 11:49:43 am »
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http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

"Zero campaigning" - Wisconsin was one of the major primary battlegrounds. Was Romney there for that?

Barone is not what he once was and has a significant Republican bias.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #52 on: June 07, 2012, 12:00:15 pm »
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http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

The Exit Poll shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?
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Torie
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« Reply #53 on: June 07, 2012, 12:32:42 pm »
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http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

The Exit Poll shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?

Barone assumed the Exit Poll's 4% or so bias to the Dems per the actual Walker Barrett vote can be carried over to the Obama Romney figures, erasing Obama's lead. He's probably right.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #54 on: June 07, 2012, 12:34:22 pm »
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http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

The Exit Poll shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?

Barone assumed the Exit Poll's 4% or so bias to the Dems per the actual Walker Barrett vote can be carried over to the Obama Romney figures, erasing Obama's lead. He's probably right.

What 4% bias ?
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Torie
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« Reply #55 on: June 07, 2012, 01:04:01 pm »
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http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

The Exit Poll shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?

Barone assumed the Exit Poll's 4% or so bias to the Dems per the actual Walker Barrett vote can be carried over to the Obama Romney figures, erasing Obama's lead. He's probably right.

What 4% bias ?

The exit poll started off with an even race, and Walker ended up winning by 7% I think. So that is a 3.5% bias.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #56 on: June 07, 2012, 01:09:13 pm »
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http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

The Exit Poll shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?

Barone assumed the Exit Poll's 4% or so bias to the Dems per the actual Walker Barrett vote can be carried over to the Obama Romney figures, erasing Obama's lead. He's probably right.

What 4% bias ?

The exit poll started off with an even race, and Walker ended up winning by 7% I think. So that is a 3.5% bias.

Click on the link:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html

The final Exit Poll has Walker winning by 7 and Obama winning by 7.

You don't need to adjust it for any "bias", because these are the final results after all Exit Poll waves incl. the people who were still waiting in line when the polls closed.
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« Reply #57 on: June 07, 2012, 01:12:20 pm »
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The re-adjusted exit poll (they always re-adjust) showed the actual recall margin and Obama up 51-45, there was no additional re-adjustment needed. Earlier in the night, the spread was around 54-42 Obama, which gradually fell to the 51-45 result.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #58 on: June 07, 2012, 01:13:39 pm »
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He should definitely invest time and money there. Not loads of either ATM, but at least get a footprint going.
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brittain33
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« Reply #59 on: June 07, 2012, 01:47:08 pm »
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If you read Barone's piece, it's mostly handwaving and wishful thinking. Maybe Romney has a chance in WI and if the trend for Obama goes south he certainly does, but this doesn't prove it.
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Torie
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« Reply #60 on: June 07, 2012, 02:29:53 pm »
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The re-adjusted exit poll (they always re-adjust) showed the actual recall margin and Obama up 51-45, there was no additional re-adjustment needed. Earlier in the night, the spread was around 54-42 Obama, which gradually fell to the 51-45 result.

OK, Barone has his numbers, and you have yours. (I thought I recall the 51-45 thing as the original number, but pay me no mind; memory is the second thing to go.) So one of you is right!  Smiley
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #61 on: June 07, 2012, 02:40:27 pm »
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The re-adjusted exit poll (they always re-adjust) showed the actual recall margin and Obama up 51-45, there was no additional re-adjustment needed. Earlier in the night, the spread was around 54-42 Obama, which gradually fell to the 51-45 result.

OK, Barone has his numbers, and you have yours. (I thought I recall the 51-45 thing as the original number, but pay me no mind; memory is the second thing to go.) So one of you is right!  Smiley

I'll go with the #s of the guy who linked over the lazy who said "The Wisconsin exit poll evidently reported the race for governor in the recall ballot as 50%-50%."

I recall seeing a Bob Dole commercial for a memory pill.  Am I wrong?
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« Reply #62 on: June 07, 2012, 10:11:50 pm »
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The re-adjusted exit poll (they always re-adjust) showed the actual recall margin and Obama up 51-45, there was no additional re-adjustment needed. Earlier in the night, the spread was around 54-42 Obama, which gradually fell to the 51-45 result.

OK, Barone has his numbers, and you have yours. (I thought I recall the 51-45 thing as the original number, but pay me no mind; memory is the second thing to go.) So one of you is right!  Smiley

I'll go with the #s of the guy who linked over the lazy who said "The Wisconsin exit poll evidently reported the race for governor in the recall ballot as 50%-50%."

I recall seeing a Bob Dole commercial for a memory pill.  Am I wrong?

Dole did shill for a pill, but as I recall it was for making memories a reality again. Wink
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