Romney's chances in Wisconsin

[Tender Branson]

Those chances only exist if he picks Ryan as VP.

Otherwise Obama by 5-10 points.

[Tender Branson]

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

The Exit Poll shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?

[Tender Branson]

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

The Exit Poll shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?

Barone assumed the Exit Poll's 4% or so bias to the Dems per the actual Walker Barrett vote can be carried over to the Obama Romney figures, erasing Obama's lead. He's probably right.

What 4% bias ?

[Tender Branson]

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.  

The Exit Poll shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?

Barone assumed the Exit Poll's 4% or so bias to the Dems per the actual Walker Barrett vote can be carried over to the Obama Romney figures, erasing Obama's lead. He's probably right.

What 4% bias ?

The exit poll started off with an even race, and Walker ended up winning by 7% I think. So that is a 3.5% bias.

Click on the link:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html

The final Exit Poll has Walker winning by 7 and Obama winning by 7.

You don't need to adjust it for any "bias", because these are the final results after all Exit Poll waves incl. the people who were still waiting in line when the polls closed.