Romney's chances in Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

His chances are extremely low. Dane County is fastest growing county in the state and it is getting more progressive each year. African Americans in Milwaukee have not turned out that well in recent elections but that should change with Obama on the top of the ticket. The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats. Lastly, the 5-10% of Democrats that don't believe in recalls and won't be voting in next weeks election will be back in November. All of these factors should be able to cancel out the circle of ignorance and the Northwoods boondocks.     

[Gass3268]

His chances are extremely low. Dane County is fastest growing county in the state and it is getting more progressive each year. African Americans in Milwaukee have not turned out that well in recent elections but that should change with Obama on the top of the ticket. The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats. Lastly, the 5-10% of Democrats that don't believe in recalls and won't be voting in next weeks election will be back in November. All of these factors should be able to cancel out the circle of ignorance and the Northwoods boondocks.     

Actually, St. Croix county grew quite a bit faster. And is nicely Republican too.

Dane County of course can't outvote the entire state. See Prosser.

You are correct, but from July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2011 Dane County added 6,769 people compared to St. Croix adding 516 people. http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2011/CO-EST2011-05.html

Of course Dane County can't outvote the entire state, but it's one of the many factors that gives the state its liberal leaning, especially in Presidential elections. 

[Gass3268]

The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats.  

This I'm not so confident of, although it did definitely trend that way in 2008.

As some others have discussed in different parts of the forum, Obama did unusually well in areas of the midwest that are manufacturing-oriented but have a Republican tradition and have more medium-sized manufacturers that lack the mass union tradition of the big auto and steelmakers: places like western Ohio, much of Indiana, and eastern Wisconsin.

It's very early to know really how subregions like this are going to go, but my very preliminary sense is that Obama is not that popular in these areas and they are likely to swing back.

Im not saying this area won't swing back to the Republicans, but in general this area is slowly moving towards the Democrats. Right now I would say its Republican leaning tossup region of the state. Brown County will go for Romney because of the conservative Green Bay suburbs, but I think Outagamie County and especially Winnebago County will be close in November. Prosser only won Winnebago County by about 2,000 votes.