Romney's chances in Wisconsin

[Devils30]

Assuming Walker wins the recall a lot of Republicans are going to be excited about their prospects. However I think it's a red herring for them. The state has a pretty constant D+2-3 PVI and its demographics are fairly steady, therefore unlikely to swing significantly one way. The recall electorate is also much more midterm like and polls show more Republicans generally plan to vote. Not to mention Romney isn't the best candidate for the state either.

[Devils30]

By the time the fall comes around the Walker recall election is old news and the focus is on the presidential race. If Obama is tied or ahead nationally there's virtually no chance Romney can win the state.

[Devils30]

The exit poll with Walker +4 had Obama +12. Adjust it for the final margin of Walker's likely 6-9 pt win and it's Obama +6-8 just like every poll currently has. It is very unlikely that Wisconsin will push Romney over 270. He will only win there if he's already won nationally. Same goes for Obama regarding Florida, North Carolina.